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November 2nd, 2022 | 12:34 CET

Gas price collapses: BASF, Porsche, Meta Materials in an upward trend

  • metamaterials
  • Investments
  • Technology
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The sharp fall in gas prices is creating a good mood among investors. This week, the forward contract (TTF) for natural gas fell to below EUR 100 per MWh, its lowest level since June. This is fueling hopes that inflation will cool and the recession will be less severe. The direct beneficiary is, of course, BASF. In addition, a subsidiary is currently earning billions, and analysts see further price potential overall. According to them, the chemical group is currently "simply too cheap". This could also be the case with hot stock Meta Materials. Recently, new orders have given a boost to the share price. Should the Canadians continue the commercialization of the patent portfolio so successfully, significantly higher prices are possible. After the stuttering IPO, the Porsche share has stepped on the gas. But from the analysts' point of view, the air is slowly getting thinner.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: BASF SE NA O.N. | DE000BASF111 , PORSCHE AG | DE000PAG9113 , Meta Materials Inc. | US59134N1046

Table of contents:

    Meta Materials: Successful commercialization of a future technology

    The Meta Materials share has made an impressive comeback in recent weeks. Within a few days, the share price of the Canadian Company, which is listed in Germany and on the NASDAQ, has almost doubled to EUR 1.10. For a good reason: Meta Materials has received orders worth USD 4.3 million in its nano-optics security business. Meta says its KolourOptik technology delivers unique visual effects that create a new level of security and visual engagement while enhancing the overall banknote theme. According to the Company announcement, Meta Materials has signed a contract with a confidential G10 central bank customer for a maximum value of USD 41.5 million over a period of up to five years. The new orders are a base order for further work under the multi-year agreement. For context, Meta's second-quarter revenue increased 432% to USD 3.3 million.

    One of Meta's goals is to be a global leader in banknote security technology. The orders show that it is well on its way. And the potential for security printing is enormous, with the market for security printing estimated at USD 29.8 billion. Annual growth between 2021 and 2026 is expected to average over 4.5% (source: This is not the only billion-dollar market Meta Materials is tapping. The Company develops high-performance functional materials and nanocomposites and produces special coatings capable of redirecting light, sound, heat or radio waves using special nanotechnology.

    The potential is huge and spans all industries, such as 5G communications, health and wellness, aerospace, automotive, and renewable energies. The patent portfolio already includes over 200 patents, and more are in the approval phase. The share is still a long way from its high for the year of over EUR 4.40. However, if commercialization continues at this pace, a rising share price is anything but unlikely.

    BASF: Benefit from collapsing gas price

    Shareholders of BASF are also hoping for higher prices. In the wake of falling gas prices, the chart picture has brightened. After all, the chemical group is more dependent on the gas supply and the gas price than probably any other German company. Analysts are also predominantly positive. The most optimistic are Bernstein Research and DZ Bank, with a price target of EUR 61. Bernstein sees the proposed EU price cap for natural gas as an opportunity for BASF. Although the price is significantly above the level before the Ukraine war, it still creates predictability. The risk remains that the winter could be very cold, and gas could become scarce. Deutsche Bank is also in the camp of the optimists. Thus, the BASF share was upgraded from Hold to Buy. With all the risks of the chemical group in Europe, the security is simply too cheap. Their price target is EUR 60.

    On the other hand, UBS continues to recommend BASF shares as a "sell". Although BASF's majority shareholding Wintershall Dea continues to earn very well and is also reducing its investment program, the sale sought by BASF has hardly been possible in the current political environment. Therefore, UBS leaves the price target at EUR 37. Currently, BASF shares are trading at around EUR 45. In the third quarter, oil and gas group Wintershall Dea had strongly increased earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and exploration costs (EBITDAX) from EUR 983 million to EUR 2.6 billion.

    Porsche share fairly valued at EUR 88 or EUR 105?

    After a rather stuttering stock market debut, the Porsche share has shifted up a gear. The share is now trading above EUR 105. However, this means that the air is slowly becoming thin. At least, that is the opinion of many analysts. At present, only the analysts at UBS still see price potential. In particular, the strategy in the field of electromobility is highlighted positively. This promises long-term, structural growth. Therefore, the UBS price target for the Porsche share is EUR 105. In contrast, Stifel considers the Zuffenhausen company's stock sufficiently valued. It is true that a valuation premium compared to Mercedes and BMW is appropriate. However, Porsche should not be valued as a true luxury manufacturer either. The analysts therefore recommend Porsche shares as a "hold" with a price target of EUR 98. RBC is even a bit more cautious. With a price target of EUR 88, the analysts even see downside potential. Porsche is well positioned in electric vehicles but also appropriately valued. The analysts therefore tend to recommend the parent company Volkswagen.

    Thus, RBC rates the Volkswagen preferred shares as "outperform" with a price target of EUR 281. Currently, the VW preferred shares are trading at around EUR 131.

    Falling gas prices provide relief for investors. The hope is that the winter will not be as severe as feared. This applies in particular to BASF. Regardless of the gas price, the Meta Materials share has enormous potential if commercialization continues in this way. At Porsche, many good things are already priced in, at least according to analysts.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

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    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author

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