February 17th, 2021 | 11:54 CET
BP, Deutsche Rohstoff, va-Q-tec - here we have extreme catch-up potential!
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"[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
Deutsche Rohstoff AG - the crisis trader
The Mannheim-based investment holding Company Deutsche Rohstoff AG acted flexibly and courageously during the oil crash in the spring of last year. The Company quickly and drastically reduced its oil production. In addition, the experienced CEO Dr. Gutschlag snapped up several oil fields at knockdown prices. After prices recovered above USD 50.00 per barrel, the Company started up the first pumps again.
Last week, Deutsche Rohstoff announced an update on US oil Company Cub Creek Energy, in which the Mannheim-based Company holds an 88.5% stake, with the immediate start of drilling. Plans call for up to 12 horizontal wells with 2.25 miles of horizontal length. The Group expects to start production in the fourth quarter of the current year. The drilling program is estimated to cost up to USD 60 million. Financing will be provided through cash flow generated, an available line of credit and corporate funds. There was also good news from the Olander drilling site. Since the beginning of January, production here has started up again in the wake of rising oil prices. By the end of January, production had already reached almost 4,000 BOE. The Group expects a further increase in February.
In addition to four oil and gas producers from the USA and the German Rhein Petroleum, the Mannheim-based Company has a real treasure in the form of Almonty Industries. The Canadian Company is on the verge of creating the world's largest tungsten mine in South Korea. At full capacity, the mine will account for up to 10% of the global supply. The financing agreement with KfW IPEX-Bank has already been signed. The project financing is in the amount of USD 75.1 million. A buyer for the tungsten concentrates, which are to be produced from 2022, has been acquired with the current major shareholder, the Austrian Plansee Group. If production starts successfully, this investment could act as a lever on the German commodity Company Rohstoff AG's share price, currently at EUR 10.80. The share price has recently failed several times to reach the EUR 11.50 mark. A sustainable overcoming of this prominent mark would cause a short-term price target of EUR 14.00.
va-Q-tec - the next wave
Although va-Q-tec has a much broader portfolio than boxes for Corona vaccines, it only became known to the general public in connection with the problems with the BioNTech vaccine. In November of last year, various media reported that "BNT 162-b2" had to be cooled to at least 70 degrees below zero. It was not far-fetched to celebrate the Würzburg Company as the helper in need. In November, va-Q-tec shares shot up from EUR 24.30 to EUR 53.00 within three trading weeks. After the joint venture between BioNTech and the US Company Pfizer gave the all-clear regarding cooling and storage, the share price of the Würzburg-based Company corrected and in January fell back below the EUR 30.00 mark, which was, however, dynamically defended. If the EUR 35.00 resistance zone can now be overcome, EUR 42.50 would be the next target.
va-Q-tec received strong support from analysts. The private bank Berenberg raised the price target for va-Q-tec from EUR 30.00 to EUR 38.00 and kept the "buy" rating. According to the analyst, the upgrade was the win of a significant transport order from a well-known vaccine manufacturer. In an initial report, analyst firm Montega also came to the "buy" verdict and set the 12-month price target at EUR 41.00. According to the analysts, the strong competitive position and profitable growth prospects are not yet sufficiently reflected in the share price.
BP - Opportunity for turnaround
The year 2020 was challenging for industry leader BP, even more challenging than expected. For the first time in a decade, the British oil Company slipped into the red. In the fourth quarter, profits shrank 96% year-on-year to just USD 115 million; analysts had expected at least USD 370 million net. Although the share price fell, analysts were divided in their opinions. The major Swiss bank Credit Suisse, for example, lowered its price target from 380 pence to 350 pence. However, they left the "outperform" rating in place.
Despite the weaker than expected quarterly figures, the experts at Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, remain convinced of the British energy giant. Thus, the price target remains at 430 pence, as before the figures. Looking ahead in 2021 concerning economic activity and the economy's recovery, the experts see the light at the end of the tunnel and strong turnaround potential. In chart terms, the share, which was still quoted at EUR 5.50 at the beginning of January 2020, has dipped below EUR 3.20. The share is currently bottoming out. Breaking above the critical resistance at EUR 3.50 would offer the potential to reach just below the EUR 5.00 mark.
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