Biotech comeback and takeover fantasy! BioNTech, Bayer, and Vidac Pharma

Vidac Pharma: US patent makes it a takeover candidate?

Vidac Pharma's stock has been one of the positive surprises of the past few months. Driven by strong newsflow, the share price of the cancer-focused company has more than doubled since its low at the end of May at under EUR 0.18. The current consolidation at around EUR 0.30 offers an interesting entry opportunity, as analysts see the potential for a tenfold increase. The German research firm Sphene Capital recommends the Vidac share with a price target of EUR 4.90 in the base case scenario.

The reason for the optimism is that Vidac Pharma is pursuing a revolutionary approach to cancer treatment. The aim is to stop the abnormal metabolism of cancer cells and, thus, their proliferation. And that applies to all types of cancer cells! Vidac Pharma's two product candidates – both VDA-1275 and the further developed VDA-1102 – disrupt the interaction between hexokinase 2 (HK2) and the voltage-dependent anion channels (VDACs) in the mitochondria.

After Vidac Pharma published promising results from preclinical studies with the active ingredient VDA-1275 for the treatment of solid tumors in the summer, there has recently been more positive news. Vidac has been granted a patent by the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) for the mode of action of its oncology and onco-dermatology therapeutic candidates. Specifically, Vidac's new chemical entities are protected for the dissociation of hexokinase 2 isoenzyme from mitochondrial VDAC pores. Vidac's clinical studies have shown that they have the potential to stop cancer cell proliferation.

Vidac CEO Prof. Max Herzberg commented: "This extremely far-reaching patent is welcome news for Vidac, as it comprehensively protects our efforts to bring a completely new class of cancer treatments to market. As far as we know, we are the only company in the world whose products are aimed at reversing the overloaded metabolism of cancer cells, known as the Warburg effect, and Vidac now holds the exclusive patent on this highly promising mode of action in the US market."

BioNTech: The next price surge thanks to AI?

This should make Vidac attractive as an acquisition candidate for more and more pharmaceutical and biotech companies. One of them is BioNTech. The Mainz-based company also focuses on the fight against cancer and has already acquired companies in the past. However, organic growth is also currently strong. Since August, the share price has jumped from around EUR 70 to over EUR 100. Here, too, the cancer pipeline has been the driving force.

Analysts see further upside potential. Deutsche Bank and Jefferies are among the optimists. Both see the fair value of BioNTech shares at USD 150. In their latest commentary, the experts at Jefferies highlighted the antibody BNT327. This could develop into a strong revenue driver. Deutsche Bank was pleased with BioNTech's first AI day. The Mainz-based company showed that it incorporates technologies based on artificial intelligence (AI) into its research. This could add massive value.

BioNTech hosted its first AI event on October 1, 2024. At the event, the approach to scaling AI capabilities and deploying them within the BioNTech pipeline using a new supercomputer was presented. Prof. Dr. Ugur Sahin, CEO of BioNTech, commented: "BioNTech is at the forefront of the biotechnology industry in integrating advanced AI technologies to revolutionize personalized medicine. With our in-house AI specialist at InstaDeep, we are advancing the application of artificial intelligence to develop personalized vaccines and targeted therapies. By introducing cutting-edge technologies such as our generative protein model BFN and integrating AI capabilities into our pipeline, we aim to unlock the full potential of artificial intelligence to deliver innovative vaccines and cancer therapies to patients worldwide."

Bayer: Weak quarterly figures ahead?

And what is Bayer doing? Unfortunately, the DAX-listed company's shares did not sustainably break through the EUR 30 mark, thus cancelling the formation of an upward trend. There has been positive news recently from the pharmaceutical division and from partners.

Analysts are not providing any impetus to help the stock cross the EUR 30 mark. Instead, experts remain skeptical. On Monday, Deutsche Bank reiterated its "Hold" recommendation. Analysts expect Bayer to present weak figures on November 12. This applies to both the pharmaceutical and agricultural divisions. Deutsche Bank expects only a slight increase in sales and a significant decline in earnings. Berenberg had already warned about this. It is positive that the Leverkusen-based company wants to increase its profits and reduce its debt and the complexity of its corporate structure. However, many issues need to be addressed, and it will take time to work through them. In addition, Bayer wants to settle the legal disputes, but this is out of its hands. Therefore, Bayer shares are currently only a "Hold" position for Berenberg, with a target price of EUR 28.

Bayer clearly lacks sustainable share price drivers. Investors would be better off focusing on stocks with relative strength. Vidac Pharma impresses with positive news flow and a strong stock performance. Takeover speculation is likely not yet priced in. BioNTech seems to be coming back onto investors' radars. Further news from the research pipeline is expected in the coming months.