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May 22nd, 2024 | 07:00 CEST

BioNTech, Cardiol Therapeutics, Morphosys - On the verge of a breakout

  • Biotechnology
  • Pharma
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Compared to the broader indices, DAX and Dow Jones, which have already reached new all-time highs, the Nasdaq Biotech Index is currently lagging. The sector index is still around 23% below its peak from August 2021. Nevertheless, the sector is on the move. In addition to takeovers, which have increased dramatically in 2024, many companies have important study results in the pipeline that could kick-start a rally.

time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Stefan Feulner

Table of contents:

    David Elsley, CEO, Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.
    "[...] As a company dedicated to developing treatments for rare heart diseases, we see this as an opportune moment to contribute to the fight against heart disease and make meaningful strides in improving heart health worldwide. [...]" David Elsley, CEO, Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.

    Full interview


    BioNTech - Moderna wins

    The vaccine patent war between the US pharmaceutical companies Moderna, BioNTech, and partner Pfizer is unlikely to be over, as either party still has the option to appeal.

    Nevertheless, Moderna has achieved a decisive interim success. The European Patent Office (EPO) has decided to uphold one of Moderna's key patents in a legal dispute currently underway in Europe and internationally. According to a report by the Financial Times, which first reported the news, this decision was made at an oral hearing last Thursday. The patent in question, known as the '949 patent, covers the description of ribonucleic acids containing n1-methyl pseudouracils and their potential use. According to the EPO, the challengers to this patent include Sanofi and GSK as well as cooperation partners Pfizer and BioNTech.

    BioNTech shares went into reverse on the last trading day of the week, losing over 2.5% to USD 90.61. The price bounced off the horizontal resistance at USD 93.85 and moved south. There is a risk of further setbacks from the indicators. Both the MACD and the relative strength indicator are sending sell signals, which could push the share to its previous yearly lows of USD 85.21. A more significant wave of selling is likely to follow if the share price falls below this level again. The first significant resistance levels would then only be found in the USD 64 range.

    Cardiol Therapeutics - High momentum

    A high-flyer from the biotech sector with a performance of 163% since the beginning of the year is the share of Cardiol Therapeutics, which focuses on the research and clinical development of anti-inflammatory and anti-fibrotic therapeutics for the treatment of heart disease. It seems unlikely that the rally will end at the current USD 2.17, both from a technical and fundamental perspective.

    The Cardiol share is currently showing strong momentum, and the trend follower MACD is still in the green zone. Overcoming the marked resistance at USD 2.75 would also open the door to closing the price gap at USD 3.40 that was opened in November 2021.

    From a fundamental perspective, early June will be exciting. This is when the Canadian company expects topline results from the Phase II MAvERIC-Pilot study in patients with recurrent pericarditis.

    Last week, the ARCHER study, another of the Company's Phase II studies to assess the effects of CardiolRx™ on myocardial regeneration in patients with acute myocarditis, was the subject of a presentation at the World Congress on Acute Heart Failure 2024 in Lisbon, where Carsten Tschöpe from Charité's Berlin Institute of Health presented baseline data from the first 50 patients randomized to the ARCHER study. The Company's novel approach to treating chronic inflammation of the heart muscle tissue met with great interest from experts. According to CEO David Elsley, the ARCHER study has already reached 85% of its participant enrollment.

    In an updated study, the analyst firm H.C. Wainwright issued a price target of USD 9.00 for Cardiol Therapeutics, which would mean a potential upside of a further 320% at the current price.

    Source: Refinitiv Eikon, as of 20.05.2024

    Morphosys - It is done

    It was a bumpy ride until the final go-ahead was given for the takeover of Morphosys by the Swiss pharmaceutical group Novartis, but the transaction is now complete. At the end of the takeover period on May 13, a total of 79.6% of shareholders approved the takeover offer, including purchases outside the offer by the acquisition company Novartis Bidco of just under 11.6%.

    The offer was EUR 68 in cash, representing a total volume of EUR 2.7 billion. Shareholders who have not yet accepted the offer can continue to do so until the end of the current month.

    Weeks earlier, rumors about safety concerns regarding Morphosys' cancer drug Pelabresib had emerged, which also attracted short sellers. However, a significant sell-off failed to materialize.

    The takeover of Morphosys by Novartis has been finalized. BioNTech and Pfizer suffered a heavy defeat against Moderna in the patent dispute. Cardiol Therapeutics expects significant topline results from its Phase II MAvERIC-Pilot study at the beginning of June.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    Stefan Feulner

    The native Franconian has more than 20 years of stock exchange experience and a broadly diversified network.
    He is passionate about analyzing a wide variety of business models and investigating new trends.

    About the author

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