Billion-Dollar Markets of Obesity, Oncology, and Neurology in Focus: Novo Nordisk, Vidac Pharma, and AbbVie

Novo Nordisk: Driving the Weight-Loss Pill Forward

Recent developments at Novo Nordisk paint a picture of a company caught between conflicting forces. On the one hand, the European Commission approved the Wegovy tablet in mid-July, marking a significant milestone in the rapidly growing market for oral GLP-1 therapies. On the other hand, the company suffered a setback in February. Its Phase III trial of the combination therapy CagriSema failed to demonstrate non-inferiority to Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide, disappointing investors. The market reacted negatively to the results, although the company's Chief Scientific Officer continues to emphasize the long-term potential of the Semaglutide/Cagrilintide combination.

The competitive landscape is further intensifying due to legal disputes. Novo Nordisk filed a lawsuit against Eli Lilly, arguing that advertising for Zepbound is based on an outdated dose comparison and fails to take into account the newer, higher-dose Wegovy version. The rationale: a direct comparison is permissible only based on data available at the same time. Lilly rejects the allegations and cites the SURMOUNT-5 study as the "gold standard". At the same time, Canada approved the first generic semaglutide product in July, which could potentially undermine the Danish company's pricing power in other industrialized nations.

Despite these challenges, management remains on the offensive. The DKK 15 billion share buyback program is underway. At the same time, the company is investing in production infrastructure in both China and the Czech Republic to ensure supply security in the coming years. The quarterly results due on August 5 and management's outlook will be decisive in determining whether the share's recent recovery continues or concerns about competition and pipeline disappointments prevail.

Vidac Pharma: Metabolic Approach Gains Momentum

The EMA approval for the Phase 2b trial of VDA-1102 in highly proliferative actinic keratosis marked the start of accelerated clinical progress. The first patient was treated as early as February, and recruitment of all 39 patients was completed within the planned timeframe by June. On that occasion, the company announced that there had been no serious treatment-related side effects to date. The expected topline data following the follow-up phase could pave the way for a subsequent Phase 3 trial. For a small biotech company, this represents a rare level of operational discipline that strengthens confidence in its ability to execute.

Strategic expansion into continental Europe is also taking shape. The inclusion of the planned French subsidiary, Eutopos Pharma, in the Quest for Health accelerator in July provides access to the BioValley network, which includes partners from academia, industry, and investments. With Dr. Séverine Sigrist as the subsidiary's CEO-designate, Vidac is bringing experienced biotech expertise on board. The Strasbourg location is set to serve as a hub for research, clinical trials, and partnerships in the future. This is a smart move to operate closer to European markets and investors.

The pipeline rests on several pillars. VDA-1102 is being developed for two indications (AK and CTCL), while the systemic candidate VDA-1275 for solid tumours is in the preclinical IND-enabling phase. Recent patent grants in the US and Canada secure the core mechanism well into the 2040s. Management and major shareholders provided additional capital in February. This is a clear commitment to their own investment thesis. The growing scientific recognition of the HK2 approach, most recently evident at scientific conferences, underscores its potential to impact beyond dermatology and into other hyperproliferative diseases.

AbbVie: With a Focus on Immunology and a New Strategic Direction

The announced acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics for USD 10.9 billion marks a strategic turning point. With Zumilokibart, AbbVie secures a promising candidate for atopic dermatitis that complements its immunology portfolio. While the deal's full debt financing preserves the dividend fund, it increases debt to approximately USD 83 billion. The market reacted surprisingly positively. This is a clear signal that investors recognize the long-term rationale behind the move. The Phase 2 data show promising results, but proof must be provided in Phase 3. The real question remains whether AbbVie is successfully anticipating the next cycle of patent expirations.

The Neuroscience portfolio generated approximately USD 2.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 26%. Qulipta and Vyalev, in particular, are driving growth, while Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar are delivering stable contributions. Management sees three pillars here, each with at least USD 5 billion in potential. The pipeline programs Tavapadon for Parkinson's disease and ABBV-1758 for Alzheimer's disease keep further options open. The recent approvals of Boey in Europe and Canada, as well as SKINVIVE in the US, underscore the company's operational breadth. For investors, the key question remains whether the current momentum will continue and whether the pipeline will advance to the next stage of development.

With an expected P/E ratio of 18, AbbVie trades slightly below the industry average, despite above-average margins and double-digit revenue growth rates. The current dividend yield of around 2.7% significantly exceeds the S&P 500 average, and the 60% free cash flow payout ratio appears sustainable. However, the recent profit warning, driven by one-time charges in the current quarter, highlights the volatility of earnings performance. Analysts expect earnings per share of around USD 14.24 for 2026, but the outlook remains dependent on the integration of the acquisition and the success of the pipeline. The quarterly report due on July 31 will show whether expectations can be met.

The three companies represent different areas of healthcare megatrends. Novo Nordisk dominates obesity therapy but is struggling with growing competitive pressure and clinical setbacks, which are weighing on its share price. Vidac Pharma, on the other hand, presents itself as an up-and-coming biotech company with ongoing clinical trials, robust patent protection extending into the 2040s, and growing scientific recognition of its HK2 approach. The upcoming Phase 2b data could significantly boost the company's value. AbbVie is countering patent expirations with acquisitions worth billions and is performing well in the neurology sector, but must manage integration and high debt.