Benefit from the hydrogen boom: The most promising developments at Nel ASA, dynaCERT, and Daimler Truck

Nel ASA – Crisis with prospects?

Norwegian hydrogen technology specialist Nel ASA is going through a turbulent phase. The latest quarterly figures reveal massive problems. Order intake slumped by 74%, and revenue almost halved. The alkaline electrolyzer business was particularly hard hit by a lack of large orders, leading to the temporary shutdown of production in Herøya. These figures are more than just a blip. Nel ASA is currently unable to convince customers of the economic viability of its projects.

Despite its operational difficulties, Nel has considerable financial reserves of around NOK 1.9 billion. This solid liquidity gives management the breathing space to continue with the cost-cutting measures it has introduced and to set strategic priorities. Technologically, the Company remains one of the world leaders. The parallel development of alkaline and PEM electrolysers and strategic partnerships with major players such as GM and Reliance underscore its long-term competitiveness. Advances in the next generation of equipment could bring about the decisive breakthrough.

Nel's future depends less on the next quarterly figures than on the big picture. Driven by global decarbonization targets and billion-dollar subsidy programs in the EU and the US, the hydrogen market is forecast to grow in the long term. Nel has streamlined its structures and is well-positioned technologically. The decisive factor will be when the political incentives finally result in concrete investment decisions and large orders. Until then, patience is required. For risk-conscious investors, the wait could be worth it in the end. The share is currently trading at EUR 0.204.

dynaCERT - Port trial proves commercial viability

While many cleantech companies are still stuck in the lab, dynaCERT is already delivering tangible results. The Canadian company has successfully deployed its hydrogen technology in regular operations at the French port of Rochefort-Tonnet. Following the positive outcome, the remaining four cranes are also to be equipped with HydroGEN units by the end of the year. This development marks a significant step toward industrial decarbonization in the heavy equipment sector - an area where emission reductions are both an operational necessity and a regulatory demand. The scalability of the technology is now evident on an industrial scale.

dynaCERT initially gained recognition for its retrofit systems in truck fleets. The recent installation on a port crane strategically expands the addressable market. It is no longer just about transportation, but about the entire intralogistics of forklifts, mining vehicles, and port infrastructure. Crucially, the port is not a pilot project. Extensive comparative measurements were carried out prior to installation, which demonstrated the savings under real conditions and thus triggered the purchase decision. This diversification across different industries significantly reduces the classic cluster risk of a niche solution.

CO2 certificates are an increasingly important lever. dynaCERT is working with VERRA in this area. Customers not only benefit directly from lower fuel costs, but also generate potential additional revenue through the sale of certificates. This makes the investment even more attractive financially and could further accelerate adoption. The growing market for CO2 certificates offers an additional, long-term revenue stream that is independent of fuel price volatility. Seamless integration into existing operations without long downtimes is a decisive operational factor driving customer acceptance. GBC analysts have issued a "Buy" recommendation with a price target of CAD 0.75. The stock is currently trading at just CAD 0.125.

Daimler Truck – Robust in headwinds, with a focus on future technologies

Daimler Truck is pursuing a pragmatic dual strategy for zero emissions. Parallel to the market launch of the battery-electric eActros 600, the Company is pushing ahead with the development of the GenH2 fuel cell truck. The first prototypes are already undergoing demanding tests, and with subsidies of over EUR 200 million, small-scale series production is being prepared. However, the originally planned start of series production has been postponed to the early 2030s. The current focus is on cost optimization and scaling up battery electric vehicles, which are already more economical for many applications. In the long term, however, hydrogen remains an indispensable component, especially for heavy-duty long-distance transport.

The latest quarterly figures show weakness in North America and strength in Asia. Although group revenue declined by 6%, the adjusted EBIT margin remained remarkably stable at 9.3%. This resilience is primarily due to a disciplined pricing strategy and a more profitable customer mix. In view of the ongoing uncertainties in North America, the sales forecast for the region has been revised downward. However, an adjusted return on revenue of 7-9% is still expected for the group as a whole, supported by strong cash generation expected in the second half of the year.

In addition to market challenges, Daimler Truck also has to contend with regulatory headwinds. Together with other manufacturers, the Company has filed a lawsuit against the state of California. The accusation: the state is creating legal uncertainty with its own emissions regulations, thereby hindering long-term production planning. Despite these macro and regulatory risks, many analysts remain convinced of the Company's fundamental strength. Ratings range from "Outperform" to "Buy," with price targets ranging from EUR 41 to EUR 56, indicating potential. The share price is currently EUR 40.71.

The hydrogen market is showing dynamic progress, but companies are navigating different phases. Nel ASA is in an operational crisis, but with its technological leadership and solid balance sheet, it remains a long-term source of hope for the development of production infrastructure. dynaCERT is successfully demonstrating the practical applicability and scalability of its retrofit solutions, thereby opening up new industrial markets beyond transportation. Daimler Truck is pursuing a pragmatic dual strategy while demonstrating its financial robustness and is consistently pushing ahead with fuel cells for heavy-duty transport despite delays in series production. The journey remains exciting.