The shooting stars of the energy transition – 325% gains with Siemens Energy, dynaCERT, Nel ASA, and Plug Power

Siemens Energy – The DAX winner for 2024 has been determined

Siemens Energy is undeniably the DAX stock of the year, with gains of over 325% so far. Not a feat, many professionals would say; after all, the Munich-based company had plunged deep into the red in 2023 and even had to take advantage of government guarantees. After absorbing the losses of its Spanish wind-energy subsidiary Gamesa, management initiated a new focus, and lo and behold, the profit and loss statement turned dramatically positive. CEO Christian Bruch now has a bulging order book to support his ambitious growth plans. During the release of the financial figures, he referred to 2024 as a pivotal year for the company. Investors quickly recognized Siemens Energy's leading role in the energy transition, which is clearly reflected in the numbers. As a result, the stock price skyrocketed.

The order backlog recently reached EUR 123 billion. Orders skyrocketed in the last quarter of the fiscal year in particular, with Siemens Energy reporting an increase of more than 40%. The bottom line was a profit of EUR 1.3 billion. The Company had posted a loss of EUR 4.6 billion in the previous year. Analysts are amazed and have so far been slow to react. Berenberg, for example, recently raised its target price to EUR 70 from EUR 35. "Several more firms will likely follow suit with target price increases," said the experts from Hamburg. This is because many firms have now reached their target zones without any reason to downgrade the stock. On the Refinitiv Eikon platform, the median target price is still EUR 47.20. However, at around EUR 51, the share continues to do what it wants. A 2025 P/E ratio of over 70 does not seem to bother the bulls.

dynaCERT – Starting the new year with a strong positioning

Considerably smaller in scale, but a key player in the energy transition is the Canadian company dynaCERT, a technology supplier for the transportation industry across all segments. With its proprietary hydrogen-on-demand devices under the HydraGEN™ brand, diesel combustion processes can be optimized to achieve fuel savings of between 8% and 15%, depending on usage. After a long run-up, the Company achieved a significant milestone in early October with certification from the internationally recognized VERRA organization. HydraGEN™ technology is now an approved process and part of the VERRA organization's range of applications, meaning users of the technology can generate CO2 certificates when using it. With a manageable investment, significant fuel savings can be achieved, making it easier for fleet operators to comply with existing ESG principles. For logistics companies, mining operations, and public transit organizations, large-scale carbon reductions remain a critical focus for the future.

With a new management team under CEO Jim Payne, dynaCERT is entering the new year as a promising stock. President and director Bernd Krüper is now supported by Doug Seneshen, who has previously held key positions at MTU and Detroit Diesel. The DYA share price had reacted strongly to the VERRA certification. The stock is now classified as an ESG-relevant investment, with institutional investors coming into focus. Trading volumes have already surged in recent weeks. With an annual return of 22.5%, the next sales figures should see a strong continuation of the share price. A market capitalization exceeding CAD 85 million is gaining international recognition, signaling that the Company is now emerging from its infancy. For 2025, the sails are set, we expect a significant revaluation!

Nel ASA and Plug Power – Big moves could be on the horizon

Nel ASA and Plug Power are primarily focused on the stationary hydrogen sector, specializing in large-scale installations of interconnected electrolysers. These systems are intended to increase the hydrogen quota in energy supply because hydrogen burns almost pollutant-free. Both stocks have had a truly horrific year, with losses of a further 50% after already taking a beating from the highs in 2021. Both the Norwegian company and the 10 times larger US supplier are reporting a decline in public contracts. Since Donald Trump's re-election, investors have completely lost faith in the energy transition and climate protection, driven by the Republican's repeated dismissive statements: "Climate change – what climate change?"

From an analytical point of view, Nel ASA is trading with a market capitalization of only EUR 445 million and a 2024 price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of around 3. The achievement of the break-even point has been pushed further into the future due to repeated revisions of the business figures from 2027. Despite this, analysts expect the stock, currently trading at NOK 3.03, to reach an average target of NOK 4.41 within 12 months - an upside of about 45%. However, only 2 out of 23 analysts offer a "Buy" recommendation. The still ample cash position means that a capital injection is not necessary until the second half of 2025. Plug Power, the US counterpart, trades even more attractively, with a 2024 P/E ratio of 2.5. **Here, the medium-term price expectation is USD 2.70 – offering a 23% upside from the current price of around USD 2.20. At least 7 out of 31 experts are calling for entry. However, skepticism remains high due to the track record of CEO Andy Marsh, who has struggled to deliver on his ambitious promises.

The stock markets seem poised to close the year near their highs, once again validating those anticipating a year-end rally. However, there are still four weeks left to trade. Given the wide range within our peer group, it would not be surprising if Siemens Energy lags well behind the performance of Nel ASA, Plug Power, and dynaCERT in 2025. A well-diversified portfolio remains key to mitigating risks.