The resilient winners: How to play it safe with Almonty Industries, Rheinmetall, and Hensoldt

Almonty Industries – Tungsten, from raw material to strategic asset

Nuclear fusion is getting closer, and with it, an often overlooked metal: tungsten. Due to its extremely high melting point, it is considered a key material for the inner walls of future fusion reactors. Successes in test facilities such as WEST in France and KSTAR in Korea underscore this thesis. If the technology takes off commercially, demand for the high-performance metal tungsten would explode. In this situation, a company like Almonty Industries gains in importance. The Canadian producer not only owns operational mines but is also developing the largest tungsten mine outside China, with Sangdong in South Korea.

The strategic importance of tungsten is exacerbated by current trade policies. China, which controls over 80% of global supply, further tightened its export controls on critical materials, including tungsten, at the beginning of the year. State-approved companies now only receive export licenses for two years. This is a calculated move in the competition for technological supremacy. For Western industry, it underscores the urgency of diversifying supply chains. Almonty is positioning itself specifically as a reliable, non-Chinese supplier for the defense and high-tech sectors.

At Almonty, the strategy is now being put into practice. In mid-December, the first ore transport arrived in Sangdong, marking the official start of active mining. The mine is in the final commissioning phase, with commercial production set to begin imminently. At the same time, the Company is pushing ahead with the expansion of its established Panasqueira mine in Portugal. With the recently acquired Gentung Brown's Lake project in Montana, it is also establishing a strategic presence in the US. These operational advances are being flanked by experienced new additions to management, such as the appointment of Chief Development Officer Guillaume Wiesenbach de Lamaziere on January 6. The stock is currently trading at USD 9.09 on the NASDAQ.

Rheinmetall – From defense supplier to security ecosystem

The days when Rheinmetall was considered a traditional, somewhat sluggish defense contractor are definitely over. What investors are seeing in January 2026 is an active system provider that has suddenly taken center stage in an uncertain world. Driven by a persistently tense geopolitical situation, the business model is undergoing fundamental change. The latest news, from the delivery of modern Lynx infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine to the billion-dollar space reconnaissance contract, underscores this new role. Rheinmetall no longer supplies just hardware, but also integrated security solutions.

This transformation is being implemented at full speed on the operational side. The new hybrid plant in Hungary symbolizes the strategy. Components for e-mobility and military electronics are being produced under one roof. At the same time, the Company is driving forward future technologies, for example, with the development of a more efficient electrode for green hydrogen or the planned establishment of a joint venture for maritime laser weapons. This broad positioning beyond the core business is intended to cushion cyclical fluctuations and tap into new margin potential.

Despite the tailwind, challenges remain. The massive orders, with the framework agreement for Puma ammunition alone amounting to around EUR 1 billion, are putting production capacities and supply chains to the test. The Company's valuation already reflects a great deal of optimism. For investors, the question now is whether operational excellence can keep pace with rapid growth. The starting position is better than ever, but future success must be achieved through smooth implementation. The share is currently trading at EUR 1,888.50.

Hensoldt – Growth with patience

German sensor specialist Hensoldt is entering a phase of substantial expansion, one that will require significant investment power in the near term. Following the most recent capital markets day, the forecasts for 2025 were revised upward, with revenue now expected to be around EUR 2.5 billion and the EBITDA margin at least 18%. Nevertheless, the market reaction remained subdued. The strong growth on the path toward the EUR 6 billion revenue target for 2030 will come later, while spending on new production capacity and software development is weighing on cash flows earlier than expected.

The fundamental outlook remains robust. European defense budgets are rising structurally, driven by geopolitical tensions. The defense electronics sector, Hensoldt's core competence, is growing at a particularly rapid pace. The Company is pushing ahead with its transformation from a hardware manufacturer to a provider of networked software solutions, for example, with the "MDOcore" platform. This strategic orientation is intended to generate recurring revenues and higher margins in the long term. However, these investments will only really take effect in the second half of the decade.

This ambivalence is also reflected in the current market sentiment: observers are divided and paint a correspondingly mixed picture. While the long-term growth narrative is recognized, some consider the current valuation to be high. Analysts at mwb research have issued a price target of EUR 65, arguing that the valuation has outpaced the fundamentals following the recent upswing. The figures are well above historical levels. Competition from other defense companies in sensor-based systems is cited as a growing risk. History takes time, and the current price offers little room for setbacks. The share price is currently trading at EUR 91.90.

The geopolitical turning point makes security a key investment theme. Almonty Industries is establishing itself with the Sangdong Mine as a systemically important, non-Chinese tungsten supplier for high-tech and defense. Rheinmetall has transformed itself from an arms manufacturer into an indispensable security ecosystem, driven by record orders and hybrid manufacturing concepts. Hensoldt, as a sensor specialist, is investing in software and capacity for long-term growth, but patience is required.