And then suddenly, things are looking up! Take advantage of bargain prices at Oracle, Aspermont, and Alibaba

Oracle – After the AI Hype Comes the Cloud Revival

After a wild ride fueled by the rise of artificial intelligence, Oracle shareholders are being hit by a 60% plunge in the stock price. Although the company led by founder Larry Ellison reported strong cloud figures, billions in investments and rising debt are becoming a balance sheet risk. Key drivers of the 2025 hype were the rising demand for cloud infrastructure and the buzz surrounding generative AI - that form of artificial intelligence capable of generating new content such as text, images, music, or code from learned data, rather than merely analyzing existing information. Oracle was seen as a major beneficiary of this development, as the company has positioned itself as a specialized provider of data-intensive AI workloads with tight integration into its own database. It offered AI-hungry customers maximum computing power, storage, networks, and GPU clusters for intensive AI use, all within the context of well-functioning databases and enterprise applications.

The stock surged a full 200% to USD 345 by September 2025, but the euphoria gave way to skepticism due to the enormous investments Oracle had to make in expanding its cloud infrastructure. Customers had generated a demand with their requests that was nearly impossible to meet. Oracle was forced to invest in state-of-the-art data centers capable of providing the necessary AI hardware and high-performance servers. These were no small projects but major undertakings that required upfront capital expenditures. Over a cumulative three-year period, these investments amount to approximately USD 80 billion, which is one-fifth of the current market capitalization. Consequently, the current net debt of USD 125 billion is viewed as a problem, and credit spreads have risen sharply. Analysts had triggered a sell-off of the stock with major downgrades; currently, the average 12-month price target is USD 253.50, nearly USD 100 higher than the last closing price. 31 out of 43 analysts are giving it a thumbs-up again. So there will be a tomorrow again for the passionate sailor and major shareholder Larry Ellison! But patience is required.

Aspermont Ltd. – Poised for a spectacular relaunch with an optimized number of shares

We have already reported on Aspermont Ltd. stock several times. After a few years of investment, the company is now in better shape than ever. Investors and analysts, therefore, expect a remarkable relaunch on the capital market. The company has implemented a strategic 1-for-250 share consolidation to structurally reposition its previous penny stock. While this reverse split does not change the market capitalization of approximately AUD 23 to 24 million, the visually higher share price is likely to make the stock more tradable for institutional investors and break away from its previous penny stock image. Institutional investors, in particular, are expected to welcome this move.

This measure is part of a profound transformation. In recent years, Aspermont has evolved from a traditional trade publisher into a data-driven intelligence platform for the global commodities, energy, and agriculture sectors. At the core of the business is a unique industry archive comprising approximately 190 years of trade journalism, which is digitally structured and combined with current project data. This yields data-driven analysis and decision-making products that are marketed via a subscription model. A central product of this strategy is the Mining IQ platform, which combines historical data with current project information and AI-powered analytical models. The target audience consists of decision-makers from mining and industrial companies who can systematically analyze investment risks, project developments, or ESG parameters on this basis. Interest has been high so far; even Rio Tinto has already purchased a major subscription.

The 2025 figures still reflect the strenuous adjustment process. Revenue fell to around AUD 15.4 million, while EBITDA also remained negative at approximately –AUD 1.06 million. This development primarily reflects investments in platform technology, data structuring, and sales, as well as the strategic streamlining of less profitable business segments. However, the books should now be in order, as analysts expect a significant operational improvement in the medium term. Revenue is expected to rise to over AUD 21 million by 2028, while EBITDA is likely to gradually turn positive. The main drivers of this turnaround are recurring subscription revenue, higher contract volumes with corporate clients, and additional data and analytics products. Yesterday, the market quoted initial valuations around EUR 1.30. Research firm GBC has issued a "Buy" rating with a price target of AUD 5.00 (EUR 3.03). The chances of a quick doubling are good!

IIF host Lyndsay Malchuk interviewed the company's founder and CEO, Alex Kent, and discussed the future outlook.

https://youtu.be/w98Z4lf1dJ0

Alibaba – Between the AI Boom and Political Pressure

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock has truly been on a rollercoaster ride in recent months! The company is one of China's most significant technology stocks, combining substantial growth potential with a dominant market position in Chinese e-commerce, where platforms such as Taobao and Tmall continue to generate enormous user numbers and stable trading volumes. Additionally, the cloud division is gaining increasing strategic importance, as rising demand for artificial intelligence and computing power could enable high growth rates in the long term.

Analysts see the expansion of data-driven services and AI applications in particular as a key driver of rising margins. At the same time, however, the company remains heavily dependent on economic developments in China, which makes its consumer business sensitive to economic downturns. Political risks also come into play, as government regulatory interventions in the technology sector have repeatedly led to sharp price fluctuations in the past. High investments in cloud infrastructure, logistics, and new technologies are also weighing on profitability in the short term. However, analysts continue to view the long-term growth areas of cloud and AI as very attractive. On the LSEG platform, there are 36 "Buy" recommendations, which add up to a price target of USD 197. Yesterday, the stock hit a 6-month low of USD 137. If the estimates for 2026 are correct, the stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 8.2 - the most well-known Chinese stock has likely never been this cheap.

Stock markets are currently experiencing a period of heightened volatility, while sector-specific developments and narrative investment themes remain in focus. Aspermont appears to be exceptionally well-positioned, whereas opinions on the near-term price trajectory for Oracle and Alibaba are divided. However, following the recent downward movements, both now offer a significantly more favorable risk-reward ratio.