Russell Index Inclusion: Is Almonty on the Verge of a Major Price Breakout?

When (Naval) Blockades Strangle Supply Chains

We are currently witnessing a fundamental shift in the global commodities market, one that is being dramatically accelerated by the current theatres of war in the Middle East. Tungsten is no longer just an industrial metal; it has become a highly strategic "weapon in a global economic war." Recent events demonstrate and confirm just how explosive the situation is, as the US military is enforcing a strict naval blockade against Iranian ports and, just a few days ago, fired upon the merchant ship "Lian Star" in the Gulf of Oman. At the same time, Iran, in turn, is (once again) threatening another—or an expanded—blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

It is precisely these extreme geopolitical risks that are fueling the US Department of Defence's new procurement rule, which takes effect on January 1, 2027. This regulation prohibits American defence contractors from sourcing tungsten from China, Russia, North Korea, and war-torn Iran. Since China currently controls over 80% of global production and alternative channels are at risk of being cut off by military blockades, the West is falling into a dangerous supply trap. The sheer fear of a supply disruption has already catapulted the price of tungsten to well over USD 3,000 per metric ton unit (MTU). That is an astonishing price jump of several hundred percent within a single year.

An Irreplaceable Raw Material for Modern Warfare

A look at modern warfare reveals why this raw material is so irreplaceable. Tungsten is characterized by extreme hardness, density, and the highest melting point of any metal. It is essential for kinetic, armour-piercing ammunition, ballistic armour, and state-of-the-art hypersonic weapons. The current ground offensives highlight just how desperately needed this supply is. Despite official ceasefires, the Israeli army is advancing deep into Lebanon and most recently captured the strategically important Beaufort Fortress, which had been stocked with massive Hezbollah weapons caches under Iranian guidance. This persistent state of global conflict is forcing nations into yet another endless cycle of arms buildup. The US defence budget is heading toward the staggering mark of well over USD 900 billion for 2026. At the same time, the demand for tungsten is spilling over into two civilian future technologies. Here, provided the market recognizes this and plays up these two narratives, another driver could emerge that is also likely to push Almonty's stock price higher:

Since demand from the defence and tech industries is likely to exceed global supply, another massive deficit is virtually inevitable.

1. Semiconductors & AI: Tungsten gases are essential for chip production in the field of artificial intelligence.
2. Electric mobility: Due to its high conductivity, the metal is virtually irreplaceable in modern hybrid batteries.

Almonty Delivers

While political debates over frozen assets and sanctions drag on, Almonty Industries is focused on expanding production capacity and project execution. The strategic shift from developer to profitable producer is clearly reflected in the financial results for the first quarter of 2026. Revenue rose by 221% to CAD 25.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss to a profit of CAD 6.1 million.

The foundation for this growth is the Sangdong mine in South Korea. It is considered one of the largest tungsten deposits outside of China and was officially opened in March 2026. Full commercial production for the first phase is expected to begin there by the end of the year. The project is secured by a 15-year off-take agreement that guarantees Almonty fixed minimum prices. Crucially, there is no upper limit on these prices. To simultaneously strengthen its ties to the Pentagon and the US defence industry, Almonty recently relocated its headquarters to Montana in the US.

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Technical Chart Outlook

In addition to the fundamental tailwind, the stock is poised for a technical milestone at the end of June 2026. It will be officially included in the major US indices, the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000. This is likely to trigger an automatic buy obligation for numerous ETFs and funds, which should also significantly increase the stock's liquidity. With Jorge Beristain, a Wall Street veteran who was newly appointed CFO in June, the company also has the perfect person on board to channel institutional interest.

From a technical charting perspective, the situation is highly promising. The share is currently moving sideways, consolidating around CAD 27.30. A sustained breakout above the April high of CAD 33.35 would be a key technical signal, opening the potential for a move toward the CAD 38–40 range. Fundamentally, this scenario is supported by several emerging catalysts. Key drivers are the structurally tight global tungsten market, which continues to point toward supply constraints, as well as the successful transition of the Sangdong mine into the critical production phase.

The escalating economic war and current real-world military conflicts make one thing unmistakably clear: the days of cheap and uncomplicated raw material imports from autocracies are finally over. Almonty Industries sits on the Western world's most important strategic tungsten reserves. Anyone looking for a stock that benefits from this geopolitical turning point, amid burning trade routes and historic arms booms, can hardly, if at all, ignore Almonty. At the current consolidation level, a good entry opportunity could present itself for investors.