Close menu

September 9th, 2021 | 12:49 CEST

Royal Dutch Shell, Saturn Oil + Gas, Steinhoff: From 17 to 51 - Triples sought!

  • Oil
Photo credits:

Investing in shares consists of striving for a return on the capital invested. In recent months, there have been many stocks that have increased tenfold in price. However, only few investors had persevered. If one lowers one's targets somewhat and still maintains a reasonable profit expectation, even a threefold increase could bring great joy. We take a look at three stocks that stand at just under 17 today and calmly consider whether a 51 could be possible. Impossible, you say - Possible, we say!

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien

Table of contents:

    Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
    "[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG

    Full interview


    Royal Dutch Shell - At EUR 17 just at book value

    One of the largest private oil companies is the British-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell (RDS). In the first pandemic downturn in Q2-2020, the share price fell to around EUR 10 as global lockdowns were expected to cause a sharp economic downturn. In that quarter, RDS produced a loss of USD 18 billion. With the significant increase in oil and gas prices, Shell is now clearly back in the black, although supply chains disrupted since the pandemic still do not allow for old sales levels. However, net profit has already turned around to a plus of USD 3.4 billion, which means that Shell can pay out higher dividends again and think about debt repayment.

    The US bank JPMorgan has left its rating for Shell on "Overweight" with a price target of 2200 pence equivalent to EUR 25.60. Investors should be optimistic about the third quarter in the European oil sector, analyst Christyan Malek wrote in a recent industry report. The oil giant's A-share has already gained 70% from the October low and has been consolidating at the EUR 17 mark for 4 months. RDS is unlikely to triple, but with a price-to-book ratio of 1, a P/E ratio of 8 and a dividend yield of 4%, the cards look good for medium-term appreciation.

    Saturn Oil & Gas - At CAD 0.17, plus 200% is not witchcraft

    Those looking for undervaluation are more likely to find it in the case of Saturn Oil & Gas from Calgary. The Company, which was still relatively small at the beginning of 2021, managed a mega-deal in the middle of the year and took over the Oxbow property, which is 20 times as large with 6700 barrels of daily production.

    Paving the way for this acquisition was, of course, the persistently low WTI price in 2020, between USD 30 and 50 per barrel. The discounting models thus allowed for a moderate purchase price. The completed acquisition has turned Saturn Oil & Gas into a completely new company, with high cash flows and a permanent ability to self-finance projects. While the deal cost Saturn Oil & Gas CAD 93 million, it brings vast oil reserves and a massive production volume from the start. The undeveloped well fields also mean good opportunities for regenerating production output over the next few years.

    Saturn Oil & Gas now has a drilling area of 30 square kilometers. There are 350 wells, of which we count 260 booked locations with certified reserves. Proven or probable reserves in the area are 43 million barrels. In today's prices, this corresponds to an undiscounted value of USD 2.8 billion.

    Based on the daily production rate, with the reserves mentioned above and a current profit per barrel of around CAD 30, there is enormous profit potential over the next few years, as the liabilities from the acquisition are expected to be paid off as early as mid-2023. At the current production rate, debt will already have been reduced by CAD 70 million by the end of 2022, equivalent to about 60% of existing borrowings. A significant part of the financial planning is based on forward sales, so the balance sheet quantum leap is already easy to calculate.

    The stock exchange had to evaluate the financing details in recent weeks, and the actual value of the new Company is now coming to light. With a price of CAD 0.17, Saturn's market capitalization has reached CAD 85 million. However, the sum-of-the-parts valuation and the discounting of future cash surpluses deliver an intrinsic value per share of approx. CAD 0.50, which would correspond to a market value of CAD 255 million. So if you use a sharp pencil, you will be served a triple on a platter. The Saturn share is highly liquid in any order of magnitude, with daily trading volumes of 3-7 million shares.

    Steinhoff International - 17 cents and strong fluctuations

    Finally, a highly liquid second-tier stock that has been traded on the stock exchange as an insolvency paper for a good 3 years now. It is the furniture retailer Steinhoff International based in South Africa. The German-South African Group is still in dispute with various creditor groups, but the back and forth is likely coming to an end. The foggy veil on how and whether the Company will continue is increasingly clearing.

    The Company's 4.27 billion shares in circulation are currently fluctuating wildly, as the creditors' meeting planned for Sept. 3, 2021, on a settlement proposal with which the Group intends to resolve disputes arising from the billion-dollar accounting scandal has again been postponed by a few days. The proposal has already received approval in exploratory talks among some financial creditors but now still needs to be officially ratified by a vote of all invited claimants. But new vetoes from various stakeholders keep coming. If the settlement proposal is approved at the third meeting, the continuation of operations will be secured in the medium term. So far, so good!

    In the last few days, the share price started to climb, jumping from EUR 0.12 to over EUR 0.20, then down again to EUR 0.07, and most recently hovering around EUR 0.17. Despite the euphoria, investors should remember that Steinhoff has been running at a loss in recent years, and the fundamentals are still extremely weak. And after all, the market capitalization is over EUR 700 million. Whether a quick triple to EUR 0.51 is lurking here is something we confidently leave to the many speculators, who go wild with every invitation to the creditors' meeting. Steinhoff is and remains a casino stock!

    The stocks considered here offer a differentiated spectrum of opportunities. Royal Dutch Shell is a solid dividend stock. Steinhoff is a highly speculative lottery ticket for better times. In Saturn Oil & Gas, the facts are on the table in the best manner, and the story just needs to get going. It is, therefore, the clear triple candidate among the three companies mentioned.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may in the future hold shares or other financial instruments of the mentioned companies or will bet on rising or falling on rising or falling prices and therefore a conflict of interest may arise in the future. conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the shares or other financial instruments of the company at any time (hereinafter referred to as the company at any time (hereinafter referred to as a "Transaction"). "Transaction"). Transactions may under certain circumstances influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the of the Company.

    Furthermore, Apaton Finance GmbH reserves the right to enter into future relationships with the company or with third parties in relation to reports on the company. with regard to reports on the company, which are published within the scope of the Apaton Finance GmbH as well as in the social media, on partner sites or in e-mails, on partner sites or in e-mails. The above references to existing conflicts of interest apply apply to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH uses for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and etc. on These contents serve information for readers and does not constitute a call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly. implicitly, they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price be understood. The contents do not replace individual professional investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the share(s) offer to sell the share(s) or other financial instrument(s) in question, nor is it an nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but rather financial analysis, but rather journalistic or advertising texts. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis decisions or transactions on the basis of the information provided here act completely at their own risk. There is no contractual relationship between between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers. users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the company, but not to the investment decision of the reader or user. or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments entails high risks that can lead to the total loss of the capital invested. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors are based on careful research on careful research, nevertheless no liability for financial losses financial losses or a content guarantee for topicality, correctness, adequacy and completeness of the contents offered here. contents offered here. Please also note our Terms of use.

    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

    Related comments:

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on July 17th, 2024 | 07:30 CEST

    Siemens Energy share down 50%? Now time to buy Rheinmetall, Bayer, and Saturn Oil + Gas?

    • Mining
    • Oil
    • Defense
    • Pharma
    • renewableenergies

    Can the Siemens Energy share halve in value? At least, that is what the analysts at Bernstein think, who have set a price target of EUR 15. After a strong rally, the focus is now back on the Company's problem areas, such as India. Rheinmetall, on the other hand, is recommended as a "Buy". Can the armaments group thus end its sideways movement? In an initial study, analysts see around 50% upside potential for Saturn Oil & Gas. The oil company intends to significantly increase its free cash flow in the coming years but is considered undervalued compared to its peers. Some analysts see even more potential. Analysts are cautious about Bayer shares. In addition to the well-known legal disputes, operational issues are also a burden.


    Commented by Stefan Feulner on July 9th, 2024 | 07:30 CEST

    ITM Power, Saturn Oil + Gas, Aixtron - Setting the course for the long term

    • Mining
    • Oil
    • renewableenergies
    • Technology

    After the parliamentary elections in France at the weekend, it is not only in politics that the course for the future needs to be set anew. Recent news from oil producer Saturn Oil & Gas revealed that it has taken a major step toward becoming a "midsize producer. Following this significant transaction, several analysts have given the share a thumbs up and see an opportunity for multiplication. The hydrogen sector is also seeing new movement, suggesting that a long-term rebound could be on the horizon.


    Commented by André Will-Laudien on July 4th, 2024 | 07:45 CEST

    20,180 in the NASDAQ 100, the next record high is within reach! Breakout also at TUI, Saturn Oil + Gas, Lufthansa and dynaCERT

    • Mining
    • Oil
    • Travel
    • Hydrogen

    Sometimes, it takes a little longer, but sometimes, it happens without one even noticing. The travel stocks on the share price list are heading for a fully booked summer season, and debts have long since been repaid. Nevertheless, the mood is depressed - why is that? Saturn Oil & Gas has already made its third acquisition, and the share price is still moving sideways at a P/E ratio of 1.5! And the share price of dynaCERT, the long-criticized Canadian provider of hydrogen add-on devices for optimizing diesel combustion, for almost a year has bobbed between CAD 0.12 and CAD 0.15 - yesterday, it peaked at CAD 0.29, a premium of nearly 100% for loyal shareholders. Now, a detailed analysis is needed.