Panic at Vonovia! Analysts Bullish on CTS Eventim! Buying Opportunity at Strategic Resources

Strategic Resources: Studies Point to Upside for the Stock

With its planned iron ore pellet plant in Port Saguenay, Québec, Strategic Resources is positioning itself in a market with strong structural growth drivers. Given the political focus on supply security, reindustrialization, and lower-carbon steel production, demand for high-quality iron ore pellets is likely to continue to grow in importance.

An analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis predicts that supply shortages of high-quality DR-grade iron ore could develop after 2030. DR-grade iron ore is a particularly high-quality, iron-rich ore with low impurities that is suitable for the lower-carbon direct reduction process in steel production. Canada is explicitly identified as one of the regions that could help fill this gap with new projects. The OECD Steel Outlook 2026 paints a similar picture. With the expansion of electric arc furnaces and the decarbonization of steel production, demand for DRI and high-quality iron ore products is rising. At the same time, the OECD describes the market for high-quality DRI raw materials as tight.

This is precisely where Strategic Resources comes in with its plant for DR-grade pellets in Québec, Canada. The already-approved facility is set to be expanded to a capacity of 4 million metric tonnes per year. Strategic Resources has submitted all necessary documentation for approval and addressed all inquiries from the authorities. The company hopes to receive approval within the coming months.

Financing is to be provided primarily through debt. Strategic Resources has the backing of both the government and prominent investors. The government of Québec is already a shareholder, and Orion Mine Finance is also a major shareholder. In addition, there are long-term agreements with First Nations groups, some of which also hold stakes in the company. As a result, the project enjoys unusually broad political, financial, and social support.

Construction could begin in the summer of 2027. Strategic Resources is thus increasingly evolving from a project developer into a potentially major North American provider of next-generation steel production. It is entirely realistic that the stock could gain momentum even before the building permit is granted.

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CTS Eventim: New Price Momentum on the Horizon?

CTS Eventim's stock has shown unusual volatility so far this year. The trigger for the share price slide at the end of March was a cautious outlook for 2026. As a result, the stock plummeted by about 18% in a single day. In June, a downgrade by BNP Paribas added to the pressure. Among other things, the analysts pointed to potential market share losses in the German ticketing market and rising capital requirements. However, the half-year results do not reflect this. In the first six months of 2026, CTS Eventim generated revenue of EUR 1.51 billion, up 16.9% from the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 12.4% to EUR 225.4 million, and earnings per share rose by as much as 34.2%.

The CTS Eventim stock has since recovered from its March low of just under EUR 49. It is now trading at EUR 57 again, but still well below the year-to-date high of EUR 78. The all-time high stands at around EUR 112 and was reached in March 2025. The bottoming process therefore appears likely to take longer. Nevertheless, analysts remain quite optimistic.

Deutsche Bank has recently been particularly bullish. Its analysts recommend the stock as a "Buy" and estimate the fair value of CTS Eventim shares at EUR 100. Investors should keep an eye on the Capital Markets Day in November, where CTS could generate new price momentum with a medium-term forecast.

Bernstein Research still believes CTS Eventim shares can reach EUR 85. However, the price target was reduced from EUR 94. Nevertheless, analysts rate the stock as "Outperform". The somewhat weaker second-quarter performance should not be overemphasized. Bernstein analysts also hope the upcoming Capital Markets Day will provide new momentum. The exact date of the event is not yet listed on the financial calendar.

Vonovia: Price Targets Fall

While there are strong arguments for rising prices at Strategic Resources and CTS Eventim, Vonovia's chart is raising red flags. The stock of Germany's largest residential real estate group has been in a downtrend since late February 2026. And there seems to be no end in sight. In recent days, the stock has slipped below EUR 18, and it appears that the multi-year low of under EUR 16 from March 2023 will soon be tested.

Analysts have recently expressed caution. Goldman Sachs has lowered its price target for Vonovia shares from EUR 29.50 to EUR 21.20. The recommendation was downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral". The main reason for the caution is rising interest rates. Previously, Barclays had already lowered its price target for the residential real estate group from EUR 23 to EUR 20. Analysts rate Vonovia as "Underweight".

Yet Vonovia's half-year results were actually quite solid. Adjusted EBITDA in the rental business rose by 3.5% to EUR 1.27 billion, despite a smaller portfolio. The vacancy rate remained low at 2.3%. The Value-Add segment performed particularly well, with EBITDA rising 27.6% to EUR 128.5 million. By contrast, the New Construction and Residential Privatization segments underperformed. Overall, adjusted EBITDA increased by 2.4% to EUR 1.46 billion. Adjusted net income for the period fell by 4.9% to EUR 771.6 million due to higher financing costs and minority interests. Excluding investments, the value of the real estate portfolio rose by 1.1% in the first half of the year to a total of EUR 81.8 billion.

Vonovia also considers itself well-positioned in terms of financing. Since the beginning of the year, approximately EUR 4.4 billion has been refinanced, with an average term of 8 years and an interest rate of around 3.2%. In addition, the Group completed sales totaling approximately EUR 700 million, thereby further reducing its debt. The LTV stood at 46% at the end of June. For the full year, Vonovia confirms all earnings targets and continues to expect adjusted EBITDA of between EUR 2.95 billion and EUR 3.05 billion. The medium-term outlook through 2028 also remains unchanged.

Strategic Resources could still offer an entry opportunity before the building permit is granted. The Canadian government is currently doing everything it can to strengthen the domestic economy. Strategic Resources should also benefit from this. CTS Eventim appears to have gotten back on track operationally. The stock should also benefit from this again. There is currently no compelling reason to buy Vonovia shares.