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February 3rd, 2022 | 13:55 CET

Novavax, XPhyto Therapeutics, BioNTech, Valneva - The vaccine blockbusters are on the move again!

  • Biotechnology
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It is on again with the vaccine producers. Experts consider the pandemic to be over by the summer of 2022, but vaccination rates are still low, and infection figures are rushing from record to record. Meanwhile, mandatory vaccination by law is also a daily topic of discussion, dividing society into at least two camps. According to the thinking of those currently taking action, the right to freedom of bodily integrity probably ceases when third parties could suffer a disadvantage as a result of one's own decision. It's so easy to knit laws under the postulate of "protection & general welfare," and the individual right to liberty under the Basic Law is thus unceremoniously nullified. After all, members of parliament are supposed to be able to vote without factional coercion. We evaluate the chances of the well-known biotech protagonists!

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: André Will-Laudien
ISIN: NOVAVAX INC. DL-_01 | US6700024010 , XPHYTO THERAPEUTICS | CA98421R1055 , BIONTECH SE SPON. ADRS 1 | US09075V1026 , VALNEVA SE EO -_15 | FR0004056851

Table of contents:

    David Elsley, CEO, Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.
    "[...] As a company dedicated to developing treatments for rare heart diseases, we see this as an opportune moment to contribute to the fight against heart disease and make meaningful strides in improving heart health worldwide. [...]" David Elsley, CEO, Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.

    Full interview


    Novavax - Fast-track application for approval in the USA

    Now Novavax is slowly getting off the ground. Its proprietary Corona vaccine is now available in many countries worldwide as a protein-based vaccine in the fight against the pandemic. In Israel, too, the alternative to mRNA and vector vaccines with the trade name Nuvaxovid is meeting with great interest. According to government sources, Israel intends to order 5 million doses of the Corona vaccine, subject to official approval. Although this has not yet been granted for Novavax in Israel, it has been granted in many other countries, namely India, Indonesia and the EU. In the US, the Company has summarily filed for emergency approval of NVX-CoV2373. Along with the data, the results of two large pivotal clinical trials were submitted. These had shown the vaccine to be about 90% effective.

    News of the application for FDA approval of the vaccine was well received by Novavax investors. The stock was in dire need of an improvement in sentiment, as the stock had lost a full 70% in 2021. From the low of EUR 59.90, the share price rose quickly to over EUR 80. That is already a big gulp from the bottle. Feel free to take profits here.

    XPhyto Therapeutics - The Covid-ID Lab in European roll-out

    Finally, XPhyto Therapeutics is moving forward with PCR testing. The recently announced launch of its 25-minute COVID-19 PCR test "COVID-ID Lab" was successful. Now the Company is moving into the field by signing distribution agreements with both DigitaL lifeCare Corona test centers and a group of pharmacies in Bamberg, Germany. For investors, this step is a long-awaited success on the product side. The now successful marketing shows the potential of the XPhyto product range under the German label 3a-Diagnostics.

    The partner DigitalLife operates five coronavirus testing centers south of Stuttgart, serving a catchment area of about 75,000 inhabitants. Staff training and equipment setup were completed last week, and the first order of test kits was delivered. In addition to testing for the public, DigitalLife will also provide Covid-ID-Lab PCR testing to businesses in the region.

    Since hiring Roland Spleiss, the sales side has begun to show signs of success. The new sales division is reviewing several European and global distribution agreements, and the pipeline is richly filled. XPhyto expects to close more sales deals and will provide more details as they become available.

    As it stands, prices below EUR 0.80 are finally history. By overcoming the resistance at EUR 0.90, we believe that the share price will now head north. Looking at the historic highs above EUR 2, there is plenty of room to move upwards again. Buy!

    BioNTech - Low valuation and a lot of imagination

    After an extended consolidation, the vaccination giant BioNTech is rising again. The share price was pushed down to below EUR 125 in January, and then it was over. Any short hunters had to bite the bullet and buy shares. Many investors have recognized that, in addition to the Corona vaccines, many other research approaches are also being pursued. There is enough money in the coffers, which gives hope for quick success from the rich pipeline.

    Now the price has jumped by 30% in just 2 weeks to over EUR 160, but the price targets of the experts are still on average EUR 258. Due to the high earnings per share from 2021 of approx. EUR 36, a P/E ratio of approx. 4.5 is in the room, and the profit is only expected to decline to EUR 32.8 in 2022. In addition, there is the fantasy of new achievements. BioNTech thus remains on the preferred list of many investors, arguably also because of the rolling wave of vaccinations for children. The ratios are currently very tempting, but so is the sector's volatility. Only act with limitations and a tight stop at EUR 147!

    Valneva - Still no breakthrough noticeable!

    The share of the French-Austrian biotech Company Valneva SE has become one of the best vaccine stocks in 2021, although no major market launch has taken place yet. Over the year, the value climbed by 100% from EUR 12 to EUR 24. But now, in 2022, disillusionment is setting in because approval is taking longer than expected. However, Valneva still expects news on its COVID-19 inactivated vaccine VLA2001 in the first quarter. After all, the production chains for manufacturing are already in place, and some supply agreements have already been concluded.

    Meanwhile, another Valneva product is about to be launched. It bears the abbreviation VLA1553 and protects young people against chikungunya fever. The French biotechnology company has announced that Phase 3 trials for the new vaccine candidate are beginning. Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral disease widespread in Africa and Southeast Asia, among other places; it could be ready for the market soon.

    With this news, the share price has at least recovered quickly from the lows, around EUR 12.50. The share price is now at a level of around EUR 12.50. Nevertheless, this is still not enough to overcome the strong resistance zone at around EUR 16. The volatility is currently unpredictable, but keep Valneva on the watchlist in case it takes off at some point.

    The biotech companies discussed here are in different research and product launch stages. Generally, these companies are not valued analytically until there is a marketable product. Before that, there is a lot of imagination, but usually also a corresponding overvaluation. BioNTech is analytically favorable. XPhyto is just getting started - the excitement remains high for the entire sector.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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    Der Autor

    André Will-Laudien

    Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.

    About the author

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