Nel ASA, HPQ Silicon, Wacker Chemie: The Energy Transition Faces a Silicon Bottleneck – Time to Invest

Nel ASA – The hidden beneficiary of silicon value creation

Hydrogen is the core of Nel ASA's business model. The Norwegian electrolyser manufacturer supplies the crucial fuel for polysilicon production, the raw material for solar cells and semiconductors. In the classic Siemens process, hydrogen reduces silicon trichloride to high-purity silicon. This is exactly where Nel ASA comes into play. More and more plants are building their own electrolysers to bypass expensive supply chains and produce green hydrogen on-site. This secures Nel a key role without producing a single gram of silicon itself.

The latest financial results were mixed. Revenue fell to NOK 148 million in the first quarter of 2026, and order intake plummeted by 73%. The operating loss narrowed to NOK 100 million, and liquidity remains at NOK 1.44 billion. Management has reduced the workforce by about a quarter and has costs under control. While the PEM division suffered from a lack of US subsidies, the traditional alkaline division posted modest growth—an indication of underlying stability in the core business.

Two signals are lifting sentiment. First, Board Chairman Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 shares, a classic sign of confidence. Second, a US order valued at USD 7 million for containerized PEM systems was received. The real catalyst comes on May 6 with the launch of a new pressurized alkaline platform. It is expected to reduce capital expenditures by 40–60%. EU funding is supporting the industrialization effort. Analysts remain cautious, but the technology's promise could be the long-awaited turning point. The stock is currently trading at NOK 2.485.

HPQ Silicon – From Quartz Supplier to Technology Platform

The Canadian company HPQ Silicon has fundamentally repositioned itself in recent years. The company no longer focuses on selling raw quartz. Instead, the team led by CEO Bernard Tourillon is driving forward three independent technology platforms: battery-grade silicon, pyrogenic (fumed) silica, and hydrogen production from waste. At first glance, this may appear fragmented, but management frames it as deliberate risk diversification. While many competitors struggle with silicon expansion issues in battery applications, HPQ appears to have made tangible progress, supported by its French partner Novacium, in which it has held a 36.8% stake since February.

Recent announcements reinforce this trajectory. On April 7, the company reported average capacities exceeding 6,600 mAh for its GEN4-21700 cells, with peak values of 6,696 mAh. That is around 45% more than standard graphite-based cells deliver. Just one week later, the next milestone followed. Under extended test conditions, the same cell technology broke through the 7,000 mAh threshold, reaching 7,030 mAh. After 70 cycles, less than 2% capacity loss was observed. This figure would not be expected from conventional cells in this extreme voltage window.

The third major announcement followed on April 22. A European drone manufacturer ordered the first GEN4-based battery packs. The 8S2P configuration delivers between 10,000 and 13,400 mAh; a potential 8S3P variant would reach 15,000 to 20,100 mAh. The customer, unnamed for confidentiality reasons, operates in the professional, industrial, and military drone markets. HPQ holds the exclusive marketing rights for North America under the ENDURA+ brand. The Canadians are deliberately focusing not on the oversaturated mass market for electric vehicles, but on high-margin niches. A well-thought-out strategy that is beginning to bear fruit.

The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.165.

Wacker Chemie – Light and Shadow

At Wacker Chemie, silicon is not just a raw material, but the entire engine of the business. About 80% of revenue comes from the so-called Silicon Cluster, a network of polysilicon for chips and solar cells, as well as silicones for industry and construction. Production lines are running in Burghausen, Nünchritz, and Charleston. Anyone seeking to understand the energy transition or the semiconductor revolution can hardly ignore this Munich-based group. The company's own metal production in Norway also reduces dependencies. This not only secures supply but also enables innovations such as the use of biogenic coal.

The latest preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2026 show an unexpected breakthrough. At around EUR 173 million, operating profit was well above market expectations. This was not due to improved business performance, but rather to orders being brought forward. Customers feared supply bottlenecks due to the conflict in the Middle East. Revenue is now expected to grow in the high single-digit percentage range for the full year. The profit forecast remains unchanged at EUR 550–700 million. Geopolitical issues are providing short-term momentum, but this changes little structurally. However, the ability to pass on higher energy prices at least demonstrates pricing power.

Analysts speak of a technical boost, not a trend reversal. Demand in the construction industry continues to weaken, and energy prices remain a burden in Germany. In addition, the PACE cost-cutting program, with over 1,500 planned job cuts, is weighing on sentiment. Management itself is keeping a low profile. A sustainable recovery has not yet been achieved. The recent upgrade by DZ Bank to "Hold" suggests that the worst may be over, but it is far from a cause for enthusiasm. The upcoming figures on April 29 will show where the company is headed this year. Currently, a share costs EUR 96.75.

The silicon bottleneck is turning into a return opportunity as companies push for localized value creation. Nel ASA is reducing the cost of green hydrogen with its new pressurized alkaline electrolysis. This could mark a turning point in the company's history. HPQ Silicon has diversified its portfolio, delivers superior battery cells with 7,030 mAh capacity, and is supplying its first drone customers. Wacker Chemie is benefiting in the short term from special orders, but remains structurally burdened. The Critical Raw Materials Act is forcing a strategic rethink, and all three stocks could potentially benefit from this shift.