Hydrogen in Germany – Who will solve the "chicken and egg problem"? Pure Hydrogen, thyssenkrupp, NEL

thyssenkrupp: There is no way around hydrogen

Germany's national hydrogen strategy aims to expand domestic electrolysis capacity from 5 GW to 10 GW by 2030. However, it is highly questionable whether this target will be achieved. It is now assumed that large quantities of hydrogen will be imported. In recent years, hydrogen has evolved from a universal savior to an energy source for heavy industry. The steel and chemical industries in particular remain dependent on hydrogen. This also has an impact on the market opportunities for suppliers of hydrogen infrastructure.

While companies such as thyssenkrupp and its hydrogen subsidiary nucera are active both as consumers and solutions providers and are likely to do good business within this industrial cycle, the situation is different across the board. Today, green hydrogen is no longer considered the sole solution – this is particularly true in light of production costs in Germany and possible grid fees. Small and medium-sized enterprises, in particular, are holding back. Companies such as NEL, which were hailed as saviors just a few years ago, are suffering from this slump in sales.

Business slumps at NEL

In the second quarter of 2025, the Norwegian hydrogen pioneer reported a significant decline in revenue from customers, from NOK 332 million to NOK 174 million, compared to the same period in 2024. EBITDA was negative at NOK -86 million. The situation is even worse for order intake, which fell by 74% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to last year. As a result of the slump, NEL has temporarily shut down its electrolyzer plant in Heroya, Norway. However, the expansion of the factory in the US, which is to grow from a capacity of 50 MW to 500 MW, is continuing. NEL cites higher interest rates and lower government incentives as reasons for the market weakness.

Pure Hydrogen: Agile and open to technology for success

Australian company Pure Hydrogen aims to profit from the current market environment. The Company is focusing on a comprehensive hydrogen ecosystem that encompasses the entire value chain, from production to end use. Pure Hydrogen aims to lead Australia towards a net-zero future by building a network of clean hydrogen production facilities, while bringing various fuel cell products, including trucks, buses, and generators, to market. In doing so, it is deliberately open to new technologies and, in addition to green hydrogen from renewable energy, is also focusing on turquoise hydrogen (methane pyrolysis from natural gas, which produces graphene as a by-product), and emerald hydrogen from biomass. Methane pyrolysis from natural gas is particularly interesting: Pure Hydrogen has a stake in Botala Energy**, which is exploring for gas in Botswana, among other places.

Individual industry solutions instead of one big throw

In the past quarters, Pure Hydrogen's business has picked up noticeably – among other things, corporate customers have ordered semi-trailers and concrete mixers. The latter will be delivered to Heidelberg Materials Australia in the fourth quarter of 2025. These concrete sales in niche markets demonstrate how an agile company can meet demand in specific segments by providing comprehensive, end-to-end solutions. This solves the "chicken-and-egg problem" in smaller, manageable clusters instead of waiting for a fully developed national pipeline infrastructure, as is currently the case in Germany.

Although approval of the hydrogen core network by the Federal Network Agency is considered an important step toward solving the "chicken-and-egg problem" surrounding hydrogen in Germany, Pure Hydrogen could also take off in this country with its agile approaches to niche markets. The hydrogen core network envisages private investments of EUR 18.9 billion and an initial cap on network usage fees. Approximately 60% of the network consists of old natural gas pipelines, with the remainder being newly constructed. The complete expansion is scheduled to be completed by 2032. Until then, the companies likely to profit from the hydrogen business will be those that are agile and able to serve specific industries with tailored solutions. In heavy industry, these are likely to be suppliers such as thyssenkrupp nucera, while small and medium-sized enterprises and logistics companies are well suited to flexible solutions such as those currently being rolled out by Pure Hydrogen.** A certain openness to technology in the production of hydrogen also makes sense, especially at the beginning of the transformation.

Pure Hydrogen: New business could be a catalyst for the stock

The performance of Pure Hydrogen's stock underscores the Company's ambitions – over the past six months alone, the stock has risen by an impressive 107%. However, with a market capitalization of around EUR 30 million, the Company remains modest in valuation, with competitors such as NEL worth around EUR 420 million on the stock market. Investors should keep a close eye on the further development of Pure Hydrogen's business. A breakthrough in new industries or additional markets could serve as a strong signal for the stock as well.**