Commodities War on Hold: How Shares of MP Materials, Antimony Resources, and Aya Gold & Silver Are Benefiting

MP Materials: The Top Dog in the US

Too dirty, too loud, too dangerous, and no longer economically viable! In a nutshell, these are the reasons China dominates the rare earths market today. In Western countries, mining was no longer profitable, and there were—and still are—significant risks to people and the environment. But times have changed, and rare earths are now being mined and processed again in the United States. Even though China continues to clearly dominate the global market, companies are working to build their own supply chains to reduce dependencies.

During quarterly earnings discussions, MP Materials CEO James Litinsky emphasized that the future of warfare will revolve around cohesion among millions—if not billions—of robots and drones, making rare earth magnets an indispensable asset and a massive driver of demand. The company is currently the only significant producer of rare earths in the US. The current war in the Gulf has once again starkly highlighted the extent of dependence on China. According to Litinsky, relevant timelines may even be brought forward. Last year, MP Materials received a USD 400 million equity investment from the US Department of Defence. This is intended to support the planned expansion of America's only rare earth deposit in Nevada. In addition, the company aims to be among those players that will operate magnet factories in the future—more than just a mining company, so to speak. The first small-scale magnet plant has already been commissioned in Texas. Recently, ground was broken for the construction of a nearby plant ten times larger.

MP Materials appears to have a clear lead here in the US. However, "lead" is a very relative term here, as the market outside of China leaves room for many players. In the first quarter, the company exceeded profit forecasts with an adjusted EBITDA of USD 36.6 million. Production of separated "heavy" rare earths, which are among the most expensive, is set to begin shortly, the company said. MP Materials' stock is the blue-chip in the US rare earths sector. It had risen eightfold at its peak during the 2024/25 boom. It is currently trading about 30% below its October 2025 high. MP Materials currently has a market capitalization of approximately USD 12 billion. The stock is highly valued, but this reflects its strong position in the US.

Antimony Resources: Top Drilling Results from the Bald Hill Antimony Project

Antimony is one of the most in-demand metals in the world. China, which controls at least 60% of the global market, is in a strong position here. The People's Republic has drastically tightened export controls on this and other metals in recent years. This was primarily a reaction to the trade war instigated by the US. By now, the country is likely exporting almost nothing to Western countries, a situation linked to the war in the Persian Gulf but also due to the metal's applications. In addition to flame retardants and semiconductors, antimony is primarily used as an alloying element (3–5%) in lead bullets, where it is practically irreplaceable. This is because the rare, silvery-white semimetal is brittle, conducts electricity and heat poorly, and helps give the ammunition greater precision and penetrating power.

Bald Hill: The Up-and-Coming Antimony Supplier

Since there are no significant antimony mines in the US today, the race to establish a supply chain outside of China's sphere of influence is in full swing. Antimony Resources Corp. has secured a leading position here. The company is developing the Bald Hill Antimony Project in New Brunswick, Canada. This deposit is located near the former Lake George Mine, which was once the only primary antimony mine in all of North America. Modern exploration at Bald Hill has been underway since 2008. And it is clear that there is a deposit there with a high-grade stibnite mineralization. The historical resource estimate (NI 43-101) also shows that the deposit must be relatively large, containing 81,000 to 108,000 tonnes of contained antimony metal. That is significantly more than China's annual production of approximately 60,000 tons.

Drilling Results Impress with High Grades

Antimony Resources is building on this historical treasure trove of data and aims to rapidly advance the development of the deposit. A drilling program is currently underway at the project, with three drilling rigs in operation. The company has now released the first results. According to these, mineralized intervals of up to 15 m were identified. The absolute highlight was a section in drill hole BH-26-10, where two wide mineralized zones (13.85 m and 14.15 m) were intersected, containing high-grade zones with 26.7% and 6.4% antimony. This essentially confirms the assumption that the mineralization is high-grade, and the drill holes show that the extensions of the main Bald Hill zone extend to depth. CEO James Atkinson emphasized that "these antimony values are similar to previously published results and that some sections come from depths of nearly 400 m." This suggests the "significant depth potential of the mineralization." The estimated extent of the drilled area from the 2025 technical report is approximately 2.7 million tonnes of ore grading between 3% and 4% antimony. The company must now conduct further exploration work to classify this historical estimate as a current mineral resource.

You can find a current assessment by CEO Jim Atkinson in this video with Lyndsay Malchuk of the IIF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcaRJnRlx_8

Antimony Resources' stock came into the market spotlight last year as the trade war intensified. At its peak, the stock more than sextupled in value. However, profit-taking set in starting in late March, and the war in the Persian Gulf pushed the commodity war narrative into the background. Since then, the stock has nearly halved from its peak and has been working hard to find a bottom. Despite this sharp correction, the stock is still trading more than 20% above its long-term 200-day moving average. While the overarching uptrend has been dented, it has not yet been completely broken from a purely technical perspective. Momentum currently signals that the stock is approaching oversold territory. An end to the correction and a technical rebound are thus slowly approaching. Risk-conscious investors can pick up shares at current levels in the short term and bet on this upward move. In the medium- to long-term, geopolitical factors will be decisive for the stock's performance. Since the stock is classified as a small-cap with a market capitalization of around CAD 77 million, further drilling results could trigger volatile price swings!

Aya Gold & Silver: Silver for Rockets

There are always those who seek to make easy money on the stock market. In September, Aya Gold & Silver was the target of a short-selling attack. Although the allegations proved baseless, the stock lost double-digit percentages over a few days. Apparently, some investors panicked. It took only a few weeks for the stock to achieve its previous highs. It then continued its long-term upward trend until the start of the Gulf War. Aside from this event, however, we also see Aya as a winner in the geopolitical landscape. This is because silver is in short supply, and the Canadians are one of the world's largest primary silver producers. Silver plays a critical, often underestimated role in the defence industry. Because of its unmatched electrical and thermal conductivity and extreme corrosion resistance, it is indispensable for the highly sensitive electronics, guidance systems, and batteries of high-tech weapons. The Gulf War made this clear. Large volumes of precision silver are required to manufacture the advanced silver-zinc batteries and specialized electronic shielding found inside Tomahawk-guided cruise missiles. Defensive interceptor platforms, such as the Patriot missile family (PAC-2/PAC-3), similarly rely on high-purity silver components to maintain flawless signal processing under extreme conditions. Crucially, once fired, these missiles are completely destroyed, meaning the silver is irretrievably lost and cannot be recycled.

Given the existing physical shortage in the silver market, companies like Aya Gold & Silver find themselves in a favourable position. This is also evident in the first quarter. Revenue rose by 244% to CAD 117 million. Aya was able to sell silver at an average price of USD 82.22 per ounce. Net profit even grew by 600% to CAD 49 million. Aya is also currently scoring strategically. Production was increased by 49% year-over-year to 1.49 million ounces of silver equivalent (AgEq). The high profits are a result of cost management. The Canadian company produces at its mine in Morocco at cash costs of CAD 18.40 per ounce AgEq. Further growth is likely to come from the Boumadine mine. A massive 240,000-meter drilling program is currently underway there. Production is expected to begin in 2028/29.