BioNTech swallows CureVac! Evotec and Vidac Pharma next? Price driver takeover and Buy recommendation

Vidac Pharma: Another price explosion?

Last fall, Vidac Pharma's stock tripled in value within a few weeks, making it the new high-flyer in cancer research. Is a similar price explosion on the horizon? The latest news on the study's progress is extremely promising, and analysts believe Vidac's stock could multiply in value.

Analysts at Sphene Capital yesterday reiterated their "Buy" recommendation for Vidac Pharma shares. The recently published pharmacokinetic results from a preliminary study with almavid and the active ingredient VDA 1102 were convincing. Three pediatric patients with brain tumors took almavid. They showed exceptional pharmacokinetic properties, including high blood stability for more than 24 hours, strong dose linearity, and consistent blood concentrations in all patients. From Vidac's perspective, almavid thus has great potential as a broad-spectrum therapy for solid tumors, both as a monotherapy and in combination therapies.

With VDA 1102, Vidac is pursuing its vision of making cancer cells lethal again. The active ingredient is designed to disrupt the binding of hexokinase 2 (HK2), an enzyme that is overexpressed in cancer cells, to the mitochondrial voltage-dependent anion channel (VDAC1). This interaction allows cancer cells to survive and multiply. VDA 1102 is designed to alter the HK2 structure, activate apoptosis and thus restore normal cell metabolism. The hoped-for result: the selective elimination of cancer cells.

Vidac shares are currently trading at around EUR 0.50. They would have to double just to reach last fall's high of EUR 1. According to Sphene Capital, there is still significantly more potential.

BioNTech swallows CureVac: Patent dispute settled?

The takeover merry-go-round in the biotech sector is spinning again – including in Germany. After Morphosys was swallowed up for EUR 2.7 billion at the beginning of 2024, M&A activity slowed. With BioNTech's recent announcement to acquire its competitor CureVac, momentum has returned.

BioNTech has committed to acquiring each CureVac share at a value of approximately USD 5.46. This values CureVac at around USD 1.25 billion. Payment will be made in BioNTech shares. The Mainz-based company's market capitalization currently stands at USD 24.72 billion. Both German biotech companies are focusing on the novel mRNA technology with a focus on oncology. Interestingly, the two companies have been in court in recent years over possible patent infringements relating to mRNA technology.

In March, the European Patent Office (EPO) confirmed the validity of CureVac's European patent EP 3 708 668 B1 with amendments. The ruling was an important milestone in the ongoing patent dispute between CureVac and BioNTech in Germany, which involves a total of six property rights. The next hearing was scheduled for July 1, 2025. A positive ruling on the patent infringement would trigger proceedings to determine damages before the same court. Whether it will still come to that now remains uncertain.

BioNTech sees the acquisition as an important strategic step: Prof. Dr. Ugur Sahin, CEO and co-founder of BioNTech, commented on the takeover bid: "This transaction is another building block in BioNTech's oncology strategy and an investment in the future of cancer medicine. We want to bring together complementary capabilities and technologies. Our goal is to advance the development of innovative and transformative cancer treatments and establish new treatment standards for various types of cancer in the coming years."

Evotec: Growth prospects look different

Evotec has been a takeover candidate for over a year. The core of the biotech company is considered very interesting for competitors. However, apart from a takeover attempt last fall that can be classified as frivolous, nothing concrete has happened. Currently, the situation is characterized by doubts about the future strategic direction, recurring takeover speculation, and short sellers. As a result, the share price seems to be stuck between EUR 6 and EUR 8.

Although analysts recently issued a "Buy" recommendation, the target price was reduced from EUR 12.10 to EUR 11.30, and the accompanying commentary does little to inspire confidence. The new CEO aims to reduce the complexity of the business model by selling off holdings and focusing on the most promising development candidates. Overall, profitability takes precedence over revenue. None of this suggests much upside potential. Shareholders may have little choice but to hope for a takeover.

Positive study results and analyst comments are strong arguments for rising prices at Vidac Pharma. The next target is EUR 1 from fall 2024. If takeover speculation arises, there could be significantly more to come. At CureVac, the takeover bid by BioNTech is likely to have taken the wind out of its sails. This is likely for the better, as the Company has often struggled with its research. Evotec currently does not present a compelling buying opportunity either.