Barrick Mining, Desert Gold and B2Gold – lock in the premium as risk falls

Barrick Mining: In strategic transformation

Barrick Mining is pushing its strategic realignment forward at pace. By the end of 2026, the North American gold assets are to be transferred into a separate company called "North American Barrick," which will be listed in New York and Toronto. The package comprises the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture with Newmont, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, and the promising Fourmile project. Around 10-15% of the shares will be brought to market, with Barrick initially retaining the majority. Analysts estimate the value of the spin-off at more than USD 60 billion. For investors, this creates a pure North American gold player, free of political risks from Africa or Pakistan.

Alongside the North America push, signs of a withdrawal from Mali are intensifying. Following the multi-billion-dollar dispute with the military government over the Loulo-Gounkoto complex and the temporary expropriation, Barrick apparently intends to conclude the dispute. Operational control is back, yet the company apparently does not necessarily want to keep the mine. Media reports point to talks about a full or partial sale of the mine complex. A merger of the Africa business with Endeavour Mining is also on the table, with a possible listing in London. Barrick is thereby signaling a clear break from its previous strategy of holding Mali as a core asset.

The combination of spin-off and potential Mali exit marks a strategic reset. North America becomes the stable cash-flow core, while risky jurisdictions are gradually wound down. For investors, two clearly distinguishable valuation profiles emerge. On the one hand, a pure North American gold company with high margins, and on the other a global portfolio with higher earnings potential but also elevated risk. The transaction, however, hinges on Newmont's approval as a partner in Nevada. Without its cooperation, the spin-off remains unrealistic. Should the plan succeed, it would send a signal to the entire industry. The stock is currently available for USD 38.21.

Desert Gold: A Smart Staged Development Strategy in West Africa's Gold Belt

Desert Gold is pursuing a phased development strategy while preserving the long-term upside of an undrilled flagship target. The SMSZ project stretches over 440 km² along the Senegal-Mali Shear Zone, a geological structure responsible for some of West Africa's most significant gold deposits. The location is remarkable. The property is "wedged" between Allied Gold's Sadiola mine to the north, B2Gold's Fekola complex and Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto mine, with around 7.2 million ounces in reserves. The company currently holds a combined resource of around 1.22 million ounces. Management regards this base as merely a starting point.

What sets Desert Gold apart from many exploration companies is its push into production. The preliminary economic assessment (PEA) envisages a simple open pit in the oxidized material. Six containers holding a modular gravity plant capable of processing 240 t per day are already on their way from China. Commissioning is planned for July, with the first gold bar to be poured in the second half of the year. All-in sustaining costs are estimated at about USD 1,100 per ounce. That is an attractive figure that would generate significant cash flows at current gold prices.

While attention rests on Mali, a potential game-changer awaits: the Tiegba Gold project in Côte d'Ivoire. The 297 km² concession lies a few hours' drive from Abidjan. A potential gold anomaly extends over 4 km in length x 2 km in width and has never been drilled. The project is held via an option agreement, through which Desert Gold can secure up to 90% of the shares; the existing exploration license is maintained during the option period. An exploration success there would turn Desert Gold overnight from a single-market Mali player into a regional player with a significant diversification advantage. The analysts at GBC Research have issued a price target of CAD 0.93 for Desert Gold shares. The stock currently trades at around CAD 0.11.

B2Gold: Why Mali is now becoming the winner

While other gold producers may have turned their backs on Mali after the regulatory turbulence, B2Gold has defined the country as a strategic core of its portfolio. The Canadian mid-tier producer was among the first producers to reach an agreement with the military junta in September 2024. Tax disputes were settled, and the new mining code was embraced as an opportunity. The result was regulatory continuity, while competitor Barrick had to accept multi-billion-dollar write-downs. Whoever makes the state a partner secures planning certainty.

The Fekola complex remains the most important cash-flow supplier. Underground mining, approved in July 2025, will contribute significantly to this year's output. The Fekola Regional project, 20 km away, is expected to deliver 180,000 ounces annually in the first 4 years. The infrastructure is in place; the ore is waiting for the final permit. The first-quarter 2026 figures underscore the operational strength. 237,763 ounces were produced, and all mines exceeded their expectations. While the annual guidance for the Fekola complex, at 410,000 to 460,000 ounces, indicates a slight decline, the higher gold price more than offsets the lower volume.

The balance sheet provides plenty of room. The treasury holds USD 479 million, and there is a USD 800 million credit line. The sale of the Finland asset brought in USD 325 million. The expiring prepayment contract, which delivered 22,064 ounces per month at less than half the current price, becomes a massive cash-flow boost from July. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.4 is below the industry average. The valuation therefore remains attractive. The Mali risk is priced in; the potential is not. The combination of growth projects, financial strength and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation makes B2Gold one of the most promising names in the gold sector. The stock currently costs around USD 4.08.

Mali's new precious-metals office noticeably lowers country risk. For compliant producers, high-margin prospects are now opening up. Barrick Mining is executing a strategic reset toward stable North American cash flows through the "North American Barrick" spin-off and a possible Mali exit. Desert Gold is on the verge of becoming a producer and holds an undrilled gem in reserve in Côte d'Ivoire. B2Gold, by contrast, makes Mali a strategic core through its early agreement with the government and benefits from predictable continuity.