AI Bubble Ahead? SAP Is Worried, SpaceX Is Betting on the Future, and Lahontan Gold Is Banking on Hard Assets in the Ground

SAP Struggles with Acquisitions and Slow AI Monetization

The German software company SAP is often cited as a prime example of successful restructuring. But the transition to cloud subscriptions carries risks. Although the current cloud order backlog climbed by 26% on a currency-adjusted basis to EUR 22.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026, analyst firms such as UBS and JPMorgan have already pulled the emergency brake and downgraded the stock. Despite the downgrade, however, UBS raised its price target to EUR 201. The reason: order growth leveled off in the second half of the year, while the rollout of autonomous agent systems is taking significantly longer than hoped. Due to the acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs, management lowered its 2026 operating profit target by over EUR 100 million to EUR 11.8 to EUR 12.2 billion. At the same time, the company's valuation relative to revenue has normalized—the stock has become more affordable. Although the AI assistant Joule now features in numerous customer deals, its actual profitability is lagging behind high expectations. If hyperscalers worldwide pour USD 650 to 700 billion into IT infrastructure without ultimately making any real money from it, a rude awakening looms. Jim Covello, head of global equity research at Goldman Sachs, emphasized that generative algorithms initially gobble up large sums for electricity and specialized chips, rather than making existing workflows cheaper from the outset. For SAP shareholders, however, perfection has long been priced into the stock. That could pose risks.

SpaceX Takes Valuation Excesses to the Extreme

The valuation frenzy is even more dramatic at SpaceX. While the company has established a de facto monopoly with its reusable Falcon rockets, its actual growth has long come from the Starlink satellite network. With over 10 million subscribers and more than 9,600 satellites in space, the company brought in approximately USD 11.4 billion in 2025. But even before its initial public offering (IPO) this summer, the market went into a frenzy. After being valued at USD 180 billion at the end of 2023, SpaceX reached a valuation of USD 800 billion ahead of its IPO. Today, SpaceX is approaching the USD 2 trillion mark. Many investors overlook the enormous operational risks. Since satellites in low Earth orbit only function for about 5 years, SpaceX must constantly pour massive amounts of money into replacement launches and hardware production, which puts a permanent strain on free cash flow.

Lahontan Gold Unearths Gold Treasure in Nevada

Those looking to invest in real assets will find a completely different situation in the precious metals sector. While US national debt exceeds USD 40 trillion and the world's largest economy's daily interest costs run around USD 3 billion, the price of gold has climbed significantly. According to World Gold Council surveys, central banks purchased 863 metric tons of gold in 2025. Yet while physical gold is breaking records, even promising exploration stocks are receiving insufficient attention from the market. The Canadian company Lahontan Gold controls the Santa Fe brownfield project in Nevada's mining-friendly Walker Lane. The former operator, Corona Gold, produced over 359,000 ounces of gold and 700,000 ounces of silver from open-pit mining between 1988 and 1995, but ore still lies dormant in the rock. In August, Lahontan Gold increased its mine-bound resources under the NI 43-101 standard by 22% to 2,385,000 ounces of gold equivalent, split into 1.195 million ounces in the indicated category and 1.190 million ounces in the inferred category.

Open-Pit Economic Viability and Other Key Data

Lahontan has already shown that the Santa Fe project is likely economically viable, based on a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) from December 2024, which is still based on the smaller predecessor resource. The company is currently having an updated economic study prepared based on the new, larger resource. The project stands out for its extremely favourable strip ratio of 1.54 to 1.60 metric tons of overburden per metric ton of ore, which eliminates the need for extensive earthmoving. In addition, existing roads, water rights, and power lines are expected to keep initial development costs within a moderate range at USD 135.1 million, including a 20% buffer. The mine is expected to produce approximately 50,000 ounces of gold equivalent annually over an eight- to nine-year mine life. The historic heap leach pads offer further potential: at Pad 2, drilling revealed residual grades of 0.54 g/t AuEq, which can be directly processed without costly re-excavation.

At a gold price of USD 4,000 per ounce, the discounted after-tax net present value of the project rises to USD 471.6 million, with an internal rate of return of 66.6% and a payback period of 1.8 years. Even in the conservative base-case scenario at a gold price of USD 2,025, the project still achieves a net present value of USD 56.5 million. The enormous operating leverage comes into full play as prices rise, because fixed production costs cause returns to increase disproportionately. Lahontan Gold, which is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange in Canada, is currently valued at approximately USD 117 million. Speculative investors should keep an eye on this stock—while tech stocks like SAP and, above all, SpaceX are already trading at ambitious valuations, Lahontan's valuation appears to be more fundamentally sound.