123fahrschule is booming, while Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz are struggling with tariffs and e-mobility

123fahrschule – Setting the course and driving growth

For 123fahrschule, 2024 marked a period of strategic consolidation. Despite inflationary pressures, the Company increased its revenue by 9.2% to EUR 22.5 million, generated positive EBITDA of EUR 0.5 million for the first time, and increased its operating cash flow to EUR 1.3 million. A key event was the acquisition of the driving simulator manufacturer Foerst GmbH, which strengthened the digitalization agenda. The operational improvements resulted from price adjustments and optimized processes. With currently 57 locations, the Company plans to expand to 70 branches by 2025, including in major cities such as Berlin and Hamburg.

Integrating smaller driving schools, whose owners are retiring, should consolidate its market leadership. 123fahrschule is targeting revenues of EUR 28-30 million and EBITDA of EUR 1.5-2.5 million in 2025**. This would represent significant growth. The drivers for this remain the digitization of training and regulatory changes, such as online theory lessons and training on simulators, but also the sale of simulators. Since March, Dr. Andreas Günther has completed the management board – the experienced manager brings expertise from tech scale-ups and consolidation projects to drive the Company's expansion forward.

Research houses like NuWays and mwb research rate the share as a "Buy". NuWays highlights the cash flow strength and margin improvement from simulator sales, and raises the price target to EUR 7.90. mwb research emphasizes the scalability of the digital model in the event of a shortage of skilled workers and sets a target of EUR 6.20. Both point to the regulatory-driven demand for digital solutions – an area in which 123fahrschule is a pioneer through technology integration and network expansion. The industry consolidation - currently, there are around 9,000 driving schools in Germany - offers additional growth potential. The share is currently trading at EUR 2.52 and still has plenty of upside potential until the analysts' price targets are reached.

Volkswagen - Accelerates strategic adjustments

The introduction of 25% tariffs on vehicle imports by the US forces Volkswagen to act quickly. To cushion the financial burden, the Company is introducing a transparent "import fee" that will be passed on directly to customers. At the same time, it is suspending rail transport of vehicles from Mexico and withholding deliveries from Europe to US ports. Models such as the Tiguan, produced in Puebla, are particularly affected, while US-made vehicles like the Atlas stand to benefit. In the short term, this should optimize logistics and mitigate price jumps.

Despite a 3% increase in revenue to EUR 78 billion in the first quarter of 2025, operating profit fell by 40% due to CO₂ provisions and customs duties. While electric vehicles are doing well in Europe, with deliveries up 113%, the Company is struggling in China with a 7% decline in sales. The US remains a bright spot. Deliveries rose 6%, driven by pull-forward effects ahead of the tariffs. However, analysts highlight ongoing margin pressure factors, including heavy investments in software and local production relocations.

Volkswagen is now prioritizing regionalization to minimize trade risks. The Chattanooga plant will be key to supply in the US, while in China, seven new electric models by 2027 will strengthen the local strategy. The Company also aims to expand highly automated driving functions developed by its subsidiary, Carizon. The annual forecast assumes a revenue increase of up to 5% with an operating margin of 5.5-6.5%, signaling confidence, but dependence on political decisions and China's recovery continue to pose risks. The stock is currently trading at EUR 85.36.

Mercedes-Benz - Strategic adjustments in the tariff conflict

In the face of the new 25% US tariffs on vehicle imports, Mercedes-Benz is focusing on price stability to retain customers. The Company is fully absorbing the additional costs for the 2025 model year itself – a rarity in the industry. This is to prevent a loss of competitiveness in the US. Analysts see this as a clever marketing measure to secure market share. At the same time, the Company is increasing its inventories to avoid supply bottlenecks. This dual strategy of price protection and logistics planning underscores the focus on short-term crisis management.

In the long term, Mercedes-Benz is examining whether more vehicles should be produced in the US. The factory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, could be expanded to avoid customs duties. In addition, the Company uses production sites in Mexico that are covered by the USMCA trade agreement. These sites could offer tariff advantages once the US government clarifies the details. The geographic diversification of production should reduce costs and make supply chains more resilient. For investors, this signals a pragmatic adaptation to protectionist tendencies.

Despite all efforts, challenges remain. High-margin models such as the GLC SUV could suffer from tariff costs, although they still recorded sales growth in 2024. At the same time, the electric fleet is showing weaknesses – BEV sales fell by 14% in Q1 2025. The lack of local production of e-models could become a problem here. Mercedes-Benz must now weigh up whether a stronger focus on US-made SUVs will support profitability in the long term or risk losing innovation opportunities in the e-sector. The balance between short-term cost control and long-term technology leadership remains crucial for investors. One share certificate currently costs EUR 48.195.

The German economy presents a mixed picture. 123fahrschule shines with 9% revenue growth, digital offensive, and acquisitions that cement its market leadership in the driving school sector. Volkswagen is pushing back against US tariffs and margin pressure, focusing on regionalization, while EV sales boom in Europe but lag in China. Mercedes-Benz is absorbing customs costs to maintain US market share but struggles with declining electric vehicle sales and the question of how to reconcile luxury with electrification. As the automotive giants fight for their global position, the driving school industry proves that future viability requires agility – whether in software, simulators, or location strategies.