May 22nd, 2026 | 06:40 CEST
Tungsten Market: High Tech and Weapons Drive Prices, Bank of America Boosts Almonty Industries!
China's dominance in raw materials, the geopolitical rivalry with the United States, and the conflict in the Persian Gulf are currently reshaping the geopolitical landscape. The West urgently needs to reduce its dependence on China for critical raw materials, although a complete decoupling is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Metals such as tungsten are at the center of this shift, as they are indispensable in the defence industry. This is driven not only by China's market control but also by Europe's ongoing rearmament efforts. Almonty Industries is in pole position in this context. The Canadian company operates one of the world's few large-scale tungsten mines in South Korea and could be among the first to provide relief through more secure supply chains. Analysts at Bank of America have recently reiterated their "Buy" recommendation, as the major growth surge in revenues and earnings is expected to begin only now.
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Tarik Dede
ISIN:
ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203987072 | TSX: AII , NASDAQ: ALM , ASX: AII
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Author
Tarik Dede
Even as a high school student in northern Germany, he developed a strong interest in the “Neuer Markt” and the dynamics of the equity markets. Small- and mid-cap companies were at the center of his focus from the very beginning. After completing his training as a certified bank clerk, he deepened his economic expertise through formal studies in economics as well as through various positions within Frankfurt’s financial sector. Today, he has been actively involved in the capital markets for more than 25 years, both professionally and as a private investor.
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China: Magician of the Commodity Markets
The West no longer wanted mines for rare earths, tungsten, antimony, or other specialty metals. Too dirty, too expensive, and too labour-intensive. China took on this task decades ago, but now—in its standoff with the US—Beijing is using these critical raw materials for high-tech and military products to fend off the trade war. The situation is particularly precarious for tungsten. For one thing, it is practically irreplaceable. With a melting point of 3,422 °C, the metal has the highest melting point and exhibits high density, making it extremely scratch-resistant and hard, yet it remains brittle. This makes tungsten perfect for use in the tool and metal industries, defence, and medicine.
China dominates the market. Depending on the estimate, its market share in mining is likely around 80%. There is another factor to consider: if Russia and North Korea are included as non-Western states, that control rises to around 95%. China has already introduced export controls since 2025. This includes the fact that the country practically no longer supplies Western companies that manufacture dual-use or military products. The US is therefore pursuing two strategies: on one hand, it is banking on competition and will require all suppliers to the US Department of Defence, starting in 2027, to use only raw materials that were not sourced from a supply chain under Chinese control. On the other hand, the US is investing heavily—for example, USD 12 billion in the "Vault" project—to build up its own reserves of critical raw materials.
Almonty in Pole Position
Almonty Industries has long had its sights set on the United States. The company has been ramping up production at its large Sangdong mine in South Korea since March, and analysts at Bank of America say it will be a major "game-changer" for the company and its stock. And it will remain the heart of the company for the foreseeable future. The Canadians recently moved their headquarters to the US to directly benefit from government incentives. Not least, the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Montana was acquired last fall. The project is set to become Almonty's next major tungsten mine. Management is already targeting the start of production for the second half of 2026.
Time To Scale Up
But right now, the focus is primarily on Sangdong. Almonty has made major investments to bring the historic mine back into operation. The first trucks were already transporting ore to the processing plant in December, and production at the Sangdong mine has been underway since March 2026. According to BofA analysts, the company is now reaping the rewards, as Almonty Industries is finally able to scale up operations. Even in the first quarter, without Sangdong, the company already demonstrated explosive growth. Revenue rose by 221% to CAD 25.4 million by the end of March. The main driver was Portugal, where the company operates the small Panasqueira tungsten mine. Additionally, the company is now operating in the black, reporting cash flow of CAD 9.7 million, following a loss in the same quarter of the previous year. Of course, tungsten prices are also a key driver. At the turn of the year, they were still below USD 1,000 per metric ton unit (MTU) of ammonium paratungstate. Prices in Rotterdam are now exceeding USD 3,000 per MTU.
Growth Rates on Par with AI Companies
Analysts at Bank of America expect that high prices and the ramp-up of the Sangdong mine will lead to rapid growth at Almonty in the coming years. BofA forecasts revenue of CAD 670 million for this year, up from just CAD 33 million last year. Revenue is then expected to rise to CAD 1.32 billion by 2027. However, profit margins are just as important as volume. Analysts anticipate an EBITDA of CAD 597 million for 2026 and a near-doubling to CAD 1.21 billion the following year. This corresponds to profitability margins typically seen only in the tech sector. In addition, the bank expects free cash flow to rise from a negative CAD 80 million (2025) to CAD 405 million (2026) and finally to CAD 871 million (2027). As a result, Almonty Industries should be able to quickly pay down debt and build a net cash position. However, this dynamic development is not only due to high market prices but also to the geology at the Sangdong mine. The ore grade is approximately 0.51% tungsten trioxide, which is about three times the global average. This enables Almonty to achieve extremely low production costs per ton.
For BofA analysts, Almonty stock is a clear "Buy." In their latest report, they set a price target of USD 23 per share. The stock is currently trading at around USD 17.60, offering short-term upside potential of approximately 25%.
Is Now the Right Time to Buy?
For investors, now is the right operational time to buy. This is because the second-quarter figures will already factor in production at Sangdong and reflect this. Furthermore, the material is needed more urgently than ever. Just recently, following a Pentagon briefing, US Senator Mark Kelly described US weapons stockpiles as "depleted" and the situation as "shocking." Following Trump's costly adventure in the Gulf, which is still ongoing, the US must invest heavily in new Tomahawk bunker-buster missiles (up to 100 kg of tungsten alloy), Patriot defence systems (10–24 kg), and SM-3 interceptor missiles (40–70 kg).
Almonty Industries is on the verge of a growth spurt right now, as Bank of America analysts note. With the ramp-up of the Sangdong mine in South Korea, revenue and profits are expected to skyrocket. With its US project, the company also has the opportunity to bring a second major tungsten mine into production starting next year!
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