April 1st, 2026 | 07:05 CEST
Takeover Speculation, Buy Ratings, and 150% Upside? SAP, D-Wave, and Aspermont
Who are the AI winners and who are the losers? This question has been driving the stock market in recent months. Many investors have placed SAP in the losers' camp. As a result, the Walldorf-based company's stock has fallen sharply in recent months. However, analysts see SAP as well-positioned for the AI era. Could a takeover provide fresh momentum? One AI winner is Aspermont. The Australian company possesses a valuable data trove in the commodities sector, which it has digitized over recent years. The plan now is to monetize this data using AI. Analysts expect significantly rising revenues and, in particular, profits. The stock is said to have over 150% upside potential. Meanwhile, shares of D-Wave have more than halved in value this year. Is the quantum hype over?
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Fabian Lorenz
ISIN:
SAP SE O.N. | DE0007164600 , D-WAVE QUANTUM INC | US26740W1099 , ASPERMONT LTD. | AU000000ASP3 | ASX: ASP
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Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
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Aspermont: Over 150% Upside Potential
Aspermont is an exciting small-cap in the AI sector. The Australian company has undergone a profound transformation in recent years. It has evolved from a traditional B2B publisher in the commodities and mining world into a subscription-driven data and intelligence platform for the global commodities sector.
Today, the business model is based on recurring subscription revenue, an extensive content archive, and a growing portfolio of high-quality data for decision-makers in the commodities sector. As the publisher of renowned industry publications such as the Mining Journal, Aspermont sits on a veritable treasure trove of data. This has been digitized in the Mining IQ data platform and enables in-depth analyses ranging from individual projects to geopolitical risks. Mining giant Rio Tinto paid approximately AUD 550,000 last year for exclusive use. This business model is accompanied by a significant improvement in the quality and predictability of revenue.
The transformation is now complete, and analysts at GBC Research recommend buying Aspermont shares. They expect that the high medium- to long-term scalability will lead to a significant improvement in EBITDA. The analysts' price target is AUD 5.00 or EUR 3.03. Aspermont shares are currently trading at EUR 1.13.
Analysts expect Aspermont to increase revenue to AUD 16.90 million in the current year. By 2028, this figure is expected to reach AUD 21.30 million. Profitability is also expected to improve significantly. In the current year, EBITDA is projected to be slightly positive at AUD 0.15 million and rise to AUD 2.93 million by 2028. Net income is expected to be positive for the first time next year at AUD 0.53 million and climb to AUD 1.73 million by 2028. The company is currently valued at AUD 22.99 million, which appears anything but expensive.
SAP: Will a Takeover Bring a Turnaround?
Will a takeover of SAP stock deliver the long-awaited turnaround? Since the summer of 2025, shares of Germany's largest software group have been in a steep decline. The price has now fallen by around 45% from its June high. At least this week, the stock is showing a slight upward trend.
Most recently, SAP has drawn attention with a planned acquisition. The Walldorf-based company aims to acquire Reltio Inc. to make corporate data AI-ready, regardless of whether it originates from SAP or third-party applications. The goal is to create a unified, high-quality data foundation that efficiently supports business AI and simplifies data integration across different systems. Reltio specializes in Master Data Management (MDM) software.
Following the integration, Reltio is set to serve as a core component of SAP BDC, helping companies harmonize structured and unstructured data and make it usable in real time. The technology supports agent-driven AI workflows and industry-specific solutions, enabling customers to make decisions based on consistent, trustworthy data. Reltio will also remain available as a standalone offering to ensure flexible usage options both within and outside the SAP product family.
Following the announcement, Bank of America reiterated its "Buy" recommendation for SAP stock. Analysts see a fair value of USD 308. They view the acquisition as an opportunity for SAP to convince companies to switch. In addition, the experts emphasized that they consider the Walldorf-based group to be well-positioned against AI-related risks. Concerns over AI disruption were the main driver behind the sell-off in recent months.
D-Wave Stock After Over 50% Loss
D-Wave shares have been hit even harder than SAP's in recent months. The quantum pure-play's stock has lost more than 50% of its value this year alone. Trading at EUR 11.36, the stock is far from its all-time high of around EUR 40 reached in the fall of 2025.
Most recently, the 2025 figures dampened sentiment. The specialist in annealing and gate-model quantum computing platforms reported annual revenue of USD 24.6 million. This was 179% more than in the previous year. However, analysts and investors had expected more. Especially since the operating loss was significantly higher than forecast. D-Wave posted a net loss of USD 355.1 million for 2025, more than double the previous year's figure of USD 143.9 million.
D-Wave highlighted numerous achievements in its announcement. These include the acquisition of the gate-model quantum computing company Quantum Circuits, the first scalable cryogenic controls for gate-model qubits, and several new customer contracts, including an eight-figure Enterprise QCaaS agreement. Fourth-quarter bookings rose to USD 13 million, representing a 471% increase from the previous quarter. This could have a positive impact in the current year if negative sentiment shifts again.
D-Wave emphasizes that 2026 could be a pivotal year, supported by new systems and strategic partnerships. Still, in the short term, the company faces the challenge of improving profitability and aligning high operating expenses with revenue. Analysts continue to see potential but warn of the risks of high losses and volatile market sentiment for quantum computing stocks.
The sell-off in SAP is somewhat exaggerated. The latest acquisition is certainly no game-changer, but it does appear to be helping the stock find a bottom. In contrast, Aspermont is a clear AI winner. The Australians have digitized their unique data treasure trove and can now scale up. Given GBC's estimates, the stock appears anything but expensive. The quantum hype is over for now. But as soon as the market shifts back into risk-on mode, this will change again. And D-Wave is a core investment in the sector.
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