TAKEOVER and BUY RECOMMENDATION! Deutz, TUI, and 123fahrschule - Over 200% upside potential!

123fahrschule: Analysts see over 200% upside potential

Following convincing figures for 2024, the analysts at NuWays have raised their price target for the 123fahrschule share. The experts now see the fair value at EUR 7.90 (previously: EUR 7.20), which is over 200% above the current price level of EUR 2.40. With more than 60 locations, 123fahrschule is the largest provider in the German driving school industry. In doing so, the Company is disrupting the analog industry with supportive digital training.

Boris Polenske, CEO of 123fahrschule SE commented: "2024 was a turning point for us. The structural and efficiency measures we introduced, along with strategic company acquisitions, have had a lasting impact. We have proven that our digital business model works and is scalable, even in challenging times. We will continue to build on this in 2025."

The analysts share the optimism of the Management Board. After a positive operating result was achieved for the first time last year, the NuWays experts expect scalable profit growth in the coming years. EBITDA is expected to reach EUR 4.9 million in 2026, up from EUR 2.5 million in the current year. At that time, the free cash flow is also expected to be clearly positive at EUR 2.1 million. The Company is currently valued at EUR 12.2 million. Given the profit growth described, this appears to be far too little for the analysts. Therefore, they expect the share price to rise and recommend 123fahrschule as a "Buy".

Especially in light of geopolitical tensions, 123fahrschule's business model, which is focused on Germany, appears crisis-resistant and conservative. Reaching operational profitability was an important milestone.

TUI: Will the tariff war eliminate the desire to travel?

While 123fahrschule is recommended for purchase with a lot of upside potential, analysts at TUI are less optimistic. Most recently, Bernstein Research rated the tourism company as "Market-Perform". The experts see the fair value of the share at EUR 7.90. TUI's shares are currently trading at around EUR 6.** The analysts expect difficult times for TUI due to the threat of deglobalization. The tariff conflict started by US President Donald Trump will have a strong impact on international travel. TUI's most important customers come from Germany and the UK. According to analysts, both countries are expected to be among the losers of the tariff war, which could lead to a decline in economic strength - and, as a result, a decrease in travel desire.

Hauck Aufhäuser is among the TUI bulls. In their initial study, the analysts recommended the TUI share as a "Buy". Their target price is a respectable EUR 10. However, the research was published at the beginning of April and thus before the customs shake-up. For Hauck Aufhäuser, TUI is the market leader in Europe, with a broad base and a unique position. It is growing faster than the global economy. However, whether it will grow as strongly as assumed just two weeks ago is doubtful.

Deutz: Acquisition in the field of electromobility

There is no doubt that armaments will be a major growth engine in Germany and Europe in the coming years. But Deutz, a specialist in heavy diesel engines, does not want to profit only from this. The Cologne-based company now wants to enter the field of electromobility and also use it in the military sector.

To this end, it is acquiring UMS Holding B.V., a specialist in the electrification of off-highway vehicles. The Dutch company offers battery-powered electric drives for off-highway applications and has already successfully electrified more than 200 machines, such as excavators, wheel loaders, and cranes. In 2024, the new Deutz subsidiary generated revenue of around EUR 10 million. The value of future new orders is expected to be in the high double-digit millions.

Dr. Sebastian C. Schulte, CEO of Deutz, commented: "With the acquisition of UMS, DEUTZ is accelerating the development of battery-powered drives in the heavy-duty sector and is already enabling the electrification of larger off-highway machinery. This is a strategically important step in the implementation of our 'Dual+' strategy, and, alongside the consolidation of the internal combustion engine market, is a decisive step forward for climate-friendly drives for large machinery."

The UMS electrification kits can be easily integrated into existing engine compartments without the need for complex, costly new machine designs. This enables both installation in new machines on existing assembly lines and immediate retrofitting. UMS also relies on interchangeable batteries that can be easily integrated into excavators, for example, in place of the rear counterweight and can be swapped out in under 10 minutes. Deutz also sees opportunities for electrifying larger machines in hybrid systems with their own small combustion engines. In addition, Deutz is exploring new applications in the military sector. Initial feasibility studies to equip military vehicles such as the Bushmaster troop carrier with a hybrid solution already exist.

At 123fahrschule, there are currently many arguments in favor of buying the stock: positive analyst comments, sharply rising profit forecasts, and a business model focused on Germany. In contrast, the TUI share is likely to suffer from international tensions. Deutz has full order books and seems to be supplementing its business model with sensible acquisitions. However, the stock has already performed well.