Strategy, 123fahrschule, BASF – Massive increases

Strategy – Further purchases to an all-time high?

For many market participants, founder Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy is madness and a bottomless pit. So far, however, the world's largest hodler has been able to prove his critics wrong. At the end of the month, the Company, which started out as a software manufacturer before switching to building up positions in the world's largest cryptocurrency, owned 553,555 Bitcoin. The total purchase price amounted to USD 37.9 billion at an average price per coin of USD 68,459. On April 28 alone, Strategy acquired an additional 15,355 BTC at an average price of USD 92,737.

Strategy is by far the largest Bitcoin holder in the world, but Saylor wants to expand the positions further. According to the latest SEC filings, a total of USD 84 billion is to be raised to further expand the already bulging portfolio.

In detail, as the Strategy management announced in its latest earnings call, this involves a "42/42 strategy". Within the next 24 months, the USD 84 billion will be split equally between equity and fixed-income financial instruments for the purchase of Bitcoin.

The Strategy share has so far failed to break through its annual high of USD 404.42. However, if this mark is broken on a sustained basis, the next momentum move will likely reach the all-time high of USD 543.

123fahrschule – Strong vote of confidence

The digitally operated driving school chain with a focus on e-learning offers a disruptive technology with enormous growth potential. The Cologne-based company currently operates more than 60 locations. The founder's expansion strategy envisions growing to 200 locations in the next few years, with the main focus on profitability in addition to expansion. For 2025, the management team, which has been expanded to include experienced strategist Dr. Andreas Günther, expects revenues in the range of EUR 28 to 30 million and EBITDA of between EUR 1.5 million and EUR 2.0 million.

The share price has risen from around EUR 2.20 to its current level of EUR 3.38 in recent weeks. The latest announcement impressively demonstrates that Polenske sees significantly more value in the Company he founded. After the well-known media entrepreneur Dirk Stroer announced his intention to sell his total holding of 960,000 shares in 123fahrschule SE, KlickVentures GmbH, the asset management company of Boris Polenske, seized the opportunity and signed a letter of intent for the intended acquisition of the shares at a price of EUR 5.50. This would significantly increase KlickVentures GmbH's stake in 123fahrschule from 10% to around 27%.

Several analyst studies show that this price is justified. Thanks to the encouraging start to the year, analysts at mwb research set their target price at EUR 6.20 with a "Buy" rating. NuWays is even more positive, and the experts have calculated a target price of EUR 7.90. In addition to the 18% year-on-year growth in sales, the analysts were particularly impressed by the enormous 41% increase in registrations compared to the first quarter of 2024, which points to strong market share gains in all key regions.

BASF – Weak figures

The chemical giant's shares traded at a discount of around 5% to EUR 42.30 yesterday. However, investors are likely to have welcomed this as an exception. The reason for the slump was simply the dividend cut, with the share trading ex-dividend at EUR 2.25 per share. In the previous year, the dividend was EUR 3.40.

However, the publication of the first-quarter figures was sobering, with the Company missing all analyst estimates due to the global industrial correction. With revenue of EUR 17.4 billion, BASF fell short of analysts' expectations of EUR 17.6 billion in the first quarter. This represents a decline of 0.9% compared with the previous year. The Company also fell short of forecasts for EBITDA: instead of the expected EUR 2.65 billion, BASF achieved earnings of EUR 2.625 billion, EUR 25 million less than anticipated.

The series of disappointing figures continued with the operating result. EBIT reached only around EUR 1.2 billion, significantly below the experts' estimates of EUR 1.43 billion. The Group's earnings weakness thus continues. Net income fell by more than 40% year-on-year to EUR 808 million. Operating cash flow was also lower than the previous year, highlighting the ongoing cash outflows.

Despite the weak start to the year, BASF is sticking to its full-year forecast. EBITDA is expected to be between EUR 8.0 billion and EUR 8.4 billion for the full year. Free cash flow is expected to be between EUR 400 million and EUR 800 million. Analysts' expectations are at the upper end of these ranges.

Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin holder, plans to increase its holdings significantly. BASF is feeling the effects of the recession in industry and missed analysts' estimates. The executive board of 123fahrschule is buying back shares at a significantly higher price, which should be seen as a clear sign of confidence in its own company.