SPACEX SOARS, ALMONTY ADVANCES, PLS REWARDS PATIENCE: THREE LESSONS IN RATIONAL INVESTING

SPACEX: THE TRILLION-DOLLAR PARTY OF THE COSMIC CAPITALISTS

June 12, 2026, will go down as a historic milestone in Nasdaq's history. With the initial listing of the space and satellite company SpaceX, investors witnessed the largest IPO in history. With an offering volume of USD 75 billion, Elon Musk's space venture even eclipsed the historic record set by the Saudi oil giant Aramco in 2019. On the very first day of trading, the stock shot up by nearly 30% from its offering price of USD 135 at times—a surge that catapulted the company's market value past the USD 2 trillion mark overnight and made founder Elon Musk—at least on paper—the world's first official trillionaire. But while retail investors who came up empty-handed in the allocation are now chasing the stock on the secondary market with euphoria, cool-headed analysts are urging caution. Contrarian analyst David Trainer, head of the research firm New Constructs and known for his accuracy, called it "one of the most overvalued IPOs in history" and warned that the fundamental reality of the numbers bears no relation to Wall Street's trillion-dollar fantasy.

In fact, the bare figures stand in stark contrast to the astronomical valuation. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, SpaceX posted a loss of over USD 4.2 billion on revenue of USD 4.7 billion, driven by the immense development costs of the Starship fleet. The aggressive merger with Musk's AI firm xAI and the vision of solar-powered data centers in Earth orbit may be making headlines, but the potential for disappointment is enormous at the current price level of nearly USD 200. Experienced market strategists like Trainer therefore advise against buying in at the current hype-driven price. Their unanimous verdict: the IPO itself is rarely the opportunity—the correction that follows is. Even under the optimistic assumption that the Musk-led company breaks even next year, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at a staggering 10,000. And even in 2029—rocket-like profit growth or not—it is unlikely to fall below 100. Historical precedents show that even for the most revolutionary tech giants, healthy, often double-digit corrections are the order of the day. Only once the stock market's celebratory mood has faded is a buying opportunity likely to present itself for prudent investors, offering a significantly better risk-reward ratio.

ALMONTY INDUSTRIES: SEPARATING CONVERTIBLE NOTE FEARS FROM FUNDAMENTALS

Those who do not want to wait for the overheated SpaceX stock to correct will find worthwhile investments in the strategic metals supply chain. To manufacture the gigantic engines of modern rockets or high-precision semiconductors for AI applications, the Western world urgently needs tungsten and molybdenum—raw materials whose global market is controlled by China to nearly 80%. At the forefront of closing this critical gap in the West is the mining company Almonty Industries. The US company with Canadian roots has already commenced commercial production at the Sangdong Mine in South Korea, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside of China. Even as the launch of the most important tungsten project in a stable jurisdiction gradually took shape, the once-overlooked mid-sized company grew within two years into a globally significant corporation with a current market capitalization of approximately USD 5 billion. A look at the customers shows just how fundamentally important the project is: South Korean metal giant SeAH has already secured the entire molybdenum production through a "life-of-mine" contract to supply heat-resistant specialty alloys to the global tech and aerospace industries—and thus also to SpaceX.

Nevertheless, management recently sent shareholders on an emotional roller coaster ride. Following a steep rise from January to March, followed by a price slump and a dynamic recovery in April, the stock lost over 20% again in early June. The trigger: Almonty announced the issuance of a—likewise oversubscribed—convertible senior note with a volume of USD 800 million. On the stock market, such sums reflexively set off alarm bells, as the subsequent conversion into shares dilutes the stakes of existing shareholders. But upon closer inspection, the supposed shock turns out to be a classic buying opportunity. Through the convertible notes, Almonty secures extremely favourable financing terms with a coupon of just 2.25%, maturing in 2031—a sort of accolade from the bond market. The company is using the enormous capital inflow not to plug holes, but to build a highly profitable nano-tungsten oxide plant for the semiconductor market and to drive forward the second phase of expansion in Sangdong as well as other projects. Almonty is already mining in South Korea and Portugal, with mining areas in Spain and the US state of Montana set to follow.

While the market is punishing the dilution in the short term, the operational growth story is fully secured thanks to a now rock-solid capital base. Given the current tungsten spot price of around USD 3,000 per metric ton unit (MTU), the recent price setback—as painful as it may seem—is likely to be little more than an insignificant interlude in the long-term upward trend from a historical perspective. While the 2027 P/E ratio of 12.6—the latest estimate from analysts—is at risk of dilution, a sustained surge in tungsten prices could offset it. Tungsten, the world's most heat-resistant metal with a melting point of 3,422 degrees, remains in high demand, particularly in the defence and semiconductor industries. Since hitting an interim low of USD 15.30 a few days ago, Almonty shares have resumed their recovery—currently trading at around USD 17.75 on Nasdaq.

PLS GROUP: THE ROCKY ROAD TO A BILLION-DOLLAR VALUATION

The fact that the path to becoming a multi-billion-dollar corporation in the mining sector is never a straight one is illustrated by the prime example of the Australian lithium giant PLS Group, formerly known as Pilbara Minerals. In the wake of the first major electric vehicle hype, the stock experienced an unprecedented surge in 2022, skyrocketing from under AUD 2.50 to nearly AUD 6.00 in a very short time. Anyone who bought in at what seemed like the peak of success back then needed nerves of steel afterward. A brutal, nearly three-year slump set in, gradually dragging the price down in the wake of a collapse in lithium prices—to near the psychologically painful mark of AUD 1.00. Many retail investors, exasperated, threw in the towel at this cyclical low point.

But this is precisely where a historic buying opportunity arose. While the market was panic-selling the stock, the fundamental qualities of the Pilgangoora project remained completely intact. The site is considered the world's largest independent hard-rock lithium mine and forms the heart of the company. Pilgangoora is located in the resource-rich Pilbara region in northwestern Australia, which once gave the group its name. There, PLS also operates two key plants for processing the mined rock. Management used the crisis to optimize operations—and to expand internationally. The Australian company is now also active in Brazil and South Korea. Just over a year ago, the tide turned completely on the stock market as well. With relatively little price volatility, the share has been climbing steadily ever since and is currently knocking on the door of a new all-time high at just under AUD 6.20. The market capitalization now exceeds AUD 20 billion. The estimated P/E ratio for 2027, at 14.2, is at a similar level to Almonty's; however, the growth outlook for PLS is significantly more subdued. The analyst consensus even anticipates stagnant to declining profits for 2028 and 2029.

A SOBER PERSPECTIVE: COMPOSURE BEATS GREED

The share price performance of these three stocks reads like a textbook lesson in stock market psychology. Investors buying into SpaceX at today's hype-driven levels risk experiencing the same painful scenario that PLS investors faced in 2022. Almonty, by contrast, is currently presenting the kind of rational entry opportunity that required foresight and conviction in PLS just over a year ago. In the commodities sector, this holds truer than anywhere else: Those who buy countercyclically when the cannons are firing (or, in this specific case, when dilution concerns are weighing on the share price) are often the ones who reap the greatest rewards in the end.