Gold Rush 2.0: Between Record Cash Flows, Permitting Boosts, and Massive Leverage Opportunities – Agnico Eagle, B2Gold and Desert Gold

B2Gold Jumps 22%: Mali Paves the Way for New Growth

Shares of B2Gold (WKN: A0M889 | ISIN: CA11777Q2099 | Ticker: BTO) are currently trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange at around CAD 7.11, with a market capitalization of approximately CAD 9.4 billion. Since the start of the year, the share has gained about 17%; on a 52-week basis, the price gain is approximately 36%. The Fekola complex in Mali is particularly important for B2Gold. On August 6, the company released its results for the second quarter of 2026. Revenue rose 14% to USD 789 million. Net income increased from USD 161 million to USD 420 million. On an adjusted basis, however, B2Gold earned only USD 41 million, or USD 0.03 per share. The high net income included a book gain of USD 292 million from the sale of its stake in Fingold and positive valuation effects on derivatives.

Operationally, the quarter was mixed. Gold production fell from 229,454 to 203,648 ounces. At the same time, AISC rose from USD 1,519 to USD 2,356 per ounce of gold sold. AISC represents the total costs necessary to maintain production. In addition to mining, this includes administration, maintenance, and regular investments. Higher production costs, taxes, and mining royalties weighed on results. Operations at the Goose Mine were also slowed by a fire in the crushing plant. As a result, B2Gold lowered the upper end of its production forecast from 970,000 to 920,000 ounces.

Cash flow also showed weakness. Before changes in working capital, operating activities generated USD 94 million. However, after all adjustments, USD 79 million was used, whereas USD 255 million had been generated in the prior year. Free cash flow stood at minus USD 258 million. This was due to higher tax payments, increased costs, and the final deliveries from earlier gold forward sales. These forward sales have now ended, so future gold can once again be sold at market price. Management therefore expects stronger free cash flow in the second half of 2026 and 2027.

Investing cash flow was USD 157 million, primarily due to proceeds of USD 325 million from the Fingold sale. Financing cash flow was negative USD 268 million. B2Gold repaid USD 75 million in debt, repurchased approximately 19 million of its own shares for USD 92 million, and recorded USD 71 million in losses from gold collars. These contracts protected B2Gold from a gold price below USD 2,450 per ounce but capped the realizable price at USD 3,294. Due to the higher gold price, B2Gold had to cover the difference.

The balance sheet nevertheless provides a buffer. Current assets of USD 1.10 billion were offset by current liabilities of USD 697 million. The decisive catalyst came on August 7: Mali granted the long-awaited Menankoto mining permit. This allows B2Gold to further develop the Fekola mine as part of the Fekola Regional project. Starting in 2028, more than 150,000 ounces of gold are expected to be produced there annually, representing a growth potential of 16% alone compared to this year's gold production.

From a technical perspective, the share has broken through the reaction zone between CAD 6.00 and CAD 7.00 and is once again trading above all key moving averages. The next hurdle lies between CAD 7.50 and CAD 8. After that, the high of around CAD 8.60 could come back into focus, with the next resistance zone waiting at CAD 8.63. However, if this level is breached as the stock hits new yearly highs, the all-time high of CAD 9.99 from 2020 will come into focus for the bulls. To achieve this, though, price pullbacks below CAD 5.90 should be avoided.

Desert Gold: Gold Production Within Reach

Shares of Desert Gold (WKN: A14X09 | ISIN: CA25039N4084 | Ticker: QXR2) are currently trading at around EUR 0.07 (CAD 0.11). The exploration company currently has a market capitalization of only about EUR 24.6 million (CAD 39.7 million). With its West African SMSZ project, the explorer is also active in Mali and is currently undergoing a strategic transformation from a pure-play exploration company to a gold producer. In addition, the company has expanded its resource profile through the Tieba project in Côte d'Ivoire, enabling even stronger organic growth in the coming years.

Operationally, the company is now approaching a decisive milestone. The start of oxide gold production is scheduled for the third quarter of 2026. Logistical preparations have already been made and are currently being implemented. The gravity separation plant that was ordered has arrived at the port of Dakar and has been loaded onto trucks there. Due to the rainy season, overland transport to the SMSZ property is proceeding slowly in stages. However, half of the components are reportedly already on the prepared construction site.

Financially, this dynamic development was made possible by an oversubscribed capital increase of CAD 7.18 million in the spring of 2026. Desert Gold used these fresh funds to make the transition into the first cash flow phase. Future earnings from gold sales will then be used to fund further mine expansion.

From a valuation perspective, the company currently shows a significant discrepancy relative to its fundamentals. A recent PEA indicates an after-tax net present value of USD 124 million based on an assumed gold price of USD 4,100. The reported internal rate of return of 101% also highlights the project's high profitability. With a current valuation of just under USD 9 per ounce of gold in the ground, the stock is trading well below the industry-standard acquisition premiums, which have historically ranged between USD 66 and USD 100 per ounce of gold in the ground.

Since the gold price has stabilized above USD 4,000 per ounce, the valuation discrepancy is likely to gradually resolve as gold production begins and quarterly results improve. At least that is the view of the analysts at GBC Research, who issue a clear "Buy" recommendation. The price target of EUR 0.59 per share indicates considerable upside potential of around 842% from the current price.

Agnico Eagle Between Record Cash Flow and Rising Costs: Will It Break Above CAD 260?

Shares of Agnico Eagle (WKN: 860325 | ISIN: CA0084741085 | Ticker: AEM) are currently trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange at around CAD 259 (EUR 161.20). The Canadian gold producer has a market capitalization of approximately CAD 132 billion. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained about 10% in Canadian dollars; over the past 52 weeks, the price gain is about 40%. As Canada's largest mining company ahead of Barrick Mining, Agnico is also one of the world's largest gold producers. The company operates mines in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico. With projects such as Hope Bay, Odyssey, and the planned underground mine at Detour Lake, production is expected to grow further in the coming years.

Operationally, Agnico Eagle is benefiting significantly from the high price of gold. In the second quarter of 2026, the company reported revenue of USD 3.80 billion. Compared with USD 2.82 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, this represents an increase of approximately 35%. Net income improved from USD 1.07 billion to USD 1.60 billion. Free cash flow performed particularly well, reaching a new quarterly record of USD 1.34 billion. This was driven by an average realized gold price of USD 4,483 per troy ounce. The quarterly results were released on July 29.

Gold production, however, declined slightly from 866,029 to 855,816 ounces. At the same time, all-in sustainable costs (AISC) rose from USD 1,281 to USD 1,459 per ounce. Higher labor, energy, and royalty costs weighed on earnings. Due to the necessary rework at the Barnat open-pit mine, Agnico Eagle now expects production for 2026 to be at the lower end of its previous forecast of 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces. The AISC forecast remains at USD 1,400-1,550 per ounce.

At the end of the quarter, Agnico Eagle had a net cash position of approximately USD 3.27 billion. At the same time, a total of USD 625 million was returned to shareholders in the second quarter through dividends and share buybacks.

From a technical analysis perspective, the picture has recently improved significantly. Since early August, the share price has risen sharply, breaking above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2026. The share is now also trading above the other key moving averages. The round level of CAD 260 now represents the next short-term hurdle. A sustained breakout above this level could further accelerate the uptrend. Support is currently coming from the price of gold. The continuous gold futures contract on the COMEX closed the weekend at around USD 4,376 per troy ounce, placing it just below its 200-day moving average of approximately USD 4,500. However, the key support zone of USD 4,000 has been defended on multiple occasions. If gold also manages to break back above the 200-day moving average, this should provide additional momentum not only for Agnico Eagle shares.

B2Gold is set to grow significantly starting in 2028 thanks to a crucial new mining permit in Mali. Desert Gold is on the verge of its first gold production and offers significant upside potential of over 800%. Agnico Eagle is benefiting enormously from the high gold price and is achieving new record cash flows despite rising costs.