Shock for industry: How China's export ban is bringing the West to its knees – Antimony Resources, Rheinmetall, and thyssenkrupp

Antimony Resources – Promising discoveries at Bald Hill

The exploration company Antimony Resources is making good progress on its Bald Hill project in New Brunswick. As the company announced today, the team has succeeded in significantly expanding the newly discovered Marcus (West) Zone through further trenching and exposing mineralization over a length of 25 m in the bedrock. The zone is located in close proximity to planned drilling targets. The technical team believes that this is a separate area running parallel to the main zone. The significance of this discovery lies in the simplicity of further exploration. The drill holes planned for the main program can be tested by shallow drilling to a depth of 30-50 m, saving both time and costs. At the same time, the work confirms that the mineralized system at Bald Hill is larger than previously assumed.

The final analysis results for drill holes BH-25-22 to BH-25-31, presented at the end of January, confirm the nature of the deposit. Several zones of massive antimony mineralization were encountered in 5 of the 9 drill holes. The thicknesses and grades are impressive. 9.6 m with 2.38% antimony or 2.3 m with 6.79% antimony are values that are unmatched in North America. High-grade material was found in 75-80% of the total 31 drill holes from 2025. This confirms the picture of an exceptionally high-grade structure. The main zone now extends over a length of 700 m and has been traced to a depth of at least 400 m. The potential for an economically interesting deposit is thus becoming increasingly tangible.

The company has set the course for the current year. The program comprises three key points. First, the 10,000 m definition drilling program on the main zone is underway with three rigs. The goal is to achieve sufficient drill density for the first official resource estimate in accordance with NI 43-101. Second, the two newly discovered zones in the south and west of the project will be further explored through prospecting and drilling. Third, preparatory work for the environmental assessment and approval process is already underway. The company is well-positioned to implement this program with determination, thanks to its recent CAD 9.4 million financing. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.78.

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Rheinmetall – Between record orders and cautious forecasts

The first weeks of 2026 paint a mixed picture for Rheinmetall. While public perception is dominated by a steady stream of new major orders, a look at the official figures for the current fiscal year is causing disillusionment on the stock market. The latest order announcements underscore the Group's strong position. For example, the Swedish Navy placed an order for eight "SeaSnake 30" long-range weapon stations worth around EUR 63 million. In addition, the NATO agency NSPA made its first call-offs for 120 mm tank ammunition from a framework agreement worth around EUR 200 million. Denmark has also committed to the Düsseldorf-based group with a seven-year framework agreement for ammunition supplies. The Netherlands, in turn, extended its cooperation with an order for hand grenades worth tens of millions.

Despite these successes, the share price came under pressure at the beginning of February. This was triggered by management's initial outlook for the 2026 financial year. According to analyst reports, Rheinmetall forecast revenue that was around 12% below the consensus estimates at the time. The forecast for an operating margin of 18-20% was also met with reservations. However, the cautious expectation is based less on demand problems and more on product mix and timing effects, as well as special effects from acquisitions. Analysts emphasize that the existing order backlog means that 2026 is now largely predictable.

At the same time, the group is pushing ahead with its strategic realignment. The agreement with IG Metall on a transitional collective agreement for employees in the automotive division paves the way for the planned sale of this division. The aim is to focus fully on the rapidly growing defense business in the future. For shareholders, this means a clearer focus, but also greater dependence on political decisions. The test will come in May with the quarterly figures. Then it will become clear whether the cautious forecast was merely conservative or whether start-up difficulties with major projects are actually slowing momentum. The share is currently trading at EUR 1,635.00.

thyssenkrupp – Progress in restructuring

The industrial group has made a solid start to the fiscal year. Despite an 8% decline in revenue to EUR 7.2 billion, operating profit rose by 10% to EUR 211 million. Internal efficiency programs are having an impact, particularly in the automotive and materials divisions. The decisive factors were lower raw material costs and the initial success of the in-house APEX program. However, the bottom line was a net loss of EUR 334 million, caused by provisions for the planned job cuts in the steel division, for which the group set aside EUR 400 million. Nevertheless, the Executive Board confirmed its annual forecast. Operating profit is still expected to be between EUR 500 million and EUR 900 million.

The transformation into a financial holding company is progressing. The spin-off of the marine division TKMS in the fall was successful; the submarine manufacturer is now listed on the MDAX and has received record orders worth EUR 18.7 billion. At the same time, the sale of Automation Engineering to Agile Robots was initiated. An important step was also taken at Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann. Salzgitter will manage the joint venture alone from June 2026. Talks with the Indian Jindal Group about an entry into the steel division are also progressing, with due diligence currently underway.

However, there is still work to be done. Although Steel Europe's operating profit improved significantly to EUR 216 million thanks to lower raw material costs, the structural problems remain unresolved. The Decarbon Technologies division, which is actually the promising field of the future with hydrogen electrolysers, slipped into the red with a loss of EUR 16 million. Management expects a loss of up to EUR 800 million for the year as a whole. The costs of restructuring are high. thyssenkrupp is making progress, but a sustainable turnaround is still a long way off. The share price is currently trading at EUR 10.96.

China's antimony embargo is fundamentally shifting the balance of power in the world of raw materials. Those who now have deposits are dictating prices, and demand remains enormous. While Antimony Resources is emerging as a beacon of hope for Western supply security with its Bald Hill project, Rheinmetall is demonstrating the paradox of an arms manufacturer caught between record orders and cautious forecasts. Industrial giant thyssenkrupp, meanwhile, is pushing ahead with its transformation into a financial holding company. The reorganization of supply chains has only just begun.