Problems at Masan High-Tech Materials, low grades at Xiamen Tungsten: How Almonty is becoming a strategic lifeline for Boeing, Rheinmetall & Co.

Xiamen Tungsten: The art of profitable scarcity

To understand the opportunity around Almonty, it is worth analyzing the strategy of the dominant market player. China controls more than 80% of global tungsten production, and Xiamen Tungsten is the sector's leading company. In recent quarters, Beijing has tightened export quotas and environmental regulations, significantly constraining global supply. For Xiamen Tungsten, this was the perfect scenario: the Company was able to dictate prices and recorded rising margins as fixed costs were spread over a smaller but significantly more expensive volume. Such pricing dynamics have long been a structural feature of China's role in critical raw materials. More recently, however, there are growing indications that margin expansion at Xiamen Tungsten may be reaching its limits.

Masan High-Tech Materials: When geology sets the limits

For a long time, Vietnam was seen as the great hope for breaking China's stranglehold. Masan High-Tech Materials, operator of the Nui Phao mine, positioned itself as the ethical alternative for Western buyers. But a look at the current operating data is sobering. Masan is struggling with the physical reality of mining: declining ore grades in the mine are making it increasingly costly to produce the required quantities of concentrate. Although the Company is likely to have excellent processing technology at its disposal since the takeover of Germany's H.C. Starck, it is increasingly lacking its own cost-effective supply from the ground. Even the recently approved expansion of Nui Phao toward underground mining will not yield results in the short term. Masan simply cannot close the gap opened up by China through volume alone, as the mine appears to have passed its peak. The promise that Vietnam could replace China is faltering.

Almonty: The game changer from South Korea

Almonty is jumping into this gap with timing that could hardly be better. The Company is currently completing the full commissioning of the Sangdong mine in South Korea. This project is geologically unique, as it has tungsten grades that are well above the global average and also significantly higher than those of its Chinese and Vietnamese competitors. High grades mean low costs per ton mined, giving Almonty a margin that is likely to exceed that of Xiamen Tungsten in the future – but in an OECD jurisdiction that is politically firmly anchored in the Western camp. Almonty thus replicates the profitability of the Chinese, but eliminates the China risk for investors.

The strategy, however, extends beyond Asia. With planned activities in the US, expected to become relevant in the second half of 2026, Almonty is building a transatlantic supply bridge. While details around the ramp-up of US capacity are still being finalized, the strategic direction is clear: together with its Panasqueira mine in Portugal, Almonty is positioning itself as one of the few Western tungsten producers with multiple geopolitically secure, independently operating assets.

Technology leader instead of just a rock crusher

What further distinguishes Almonty from players such as Masan is its technological ambition. Under CEO Lewis Black, the management team places strong emphasis on advanced data analytics, artificial intelligence, and modern geological modeling in mine planning. By applying these technologies to ore body analysis, Almonty aims to minimize ore dilution and maximize recovery, further leveraging the advantages of its already high-grade deposits. Investors are therefore not backing an antiquated mining company here, but a technology-driven leader that has made operational efficiency its core principle. At Sangdong, production costs are expected to be around half those of many Chinese competitors.

The investment thesis for Almonty is therefore unusually clear in a complex sector. While Xiamen Tungsten benefits from constrained supply and Masan faces geological limitations, Almonty offers exactly what the market is seeking: high-grade, geopolitically secure, and economically attractive tungsten supply. Once the mine in South Korea reaches full operation and the US expansion takes effect in 2026, the current valuation gap relative to other critical metals companies could narrow significantly. Almonty thus represents a logical bet on the realignment of global commodity security and, for investors, the commodity option for 2026.