Oil Prices Skyrocket: Shell Benefits While Lahontan Gold and Vonovia Hedge Inflation

Shell – Between Profit and Geopolitical Turmoil

The recent escalation in the Middle East has shaken up the energy markets. While the Brent price briefly surged to over USD 126 per barrel, a key Shell production facility found itself caught in the crossfire. The Pearl GTL plant in Qatar will be partially out of service for about a year following an attack, forcing the company to declare force majeure on LNG deliveries. However, the company's global portfolio, with projects in Australia, Nigeria, and the Americas, is absorbing part of the damage. The tense situation around the Strait of Hormuz could also support price levels in the longer term.

Despite the operational setbacks, capital returns remain the driving force for investors. Shell is currently running a buyback program of at least USD 3 billion for the 17th consecutive quarter. The current volume of USD 3.5 billion is expected to be completed by May. At the same time, the company increased its quarterly dividend to USD 0.372 per share, a 4% increase. In 2025, a total of USD 22.4 billion was returned to shareholders, which corresponds to a good half of operating cash flow. Management and the market consider these distributions sacrosanct.

Strategically, Shell is focusing on LNG as a growth area. The major Canadian project is moving forward, while in Venezuela the company is looking for ways to utilize gas from the Dragon field. The structural cost reductions of USD 5.1 billion were achieved earlier than planned. However, regulatory risks are growing. An appeal in the Dutch climate case is pending, and activists are submitting a resolution to the annual general meeting. For investors, the company remains a balancing act with strong cash flows but increasingly complex geopolitical and legal challenges. The stock is currently trading at EUR 40.35.

Lahontan Gold – An Old Mine, Reimagined

It is not without reason that Nevada is considered one of the most mining-friendly regions in the world. For investors betting on gold, the jurisdiction is often more crucial than the geology, as legal certainty, taxes, and infrastructure are all in place here. This is precisely the trump card Lahontan Gold is playing. The Santa Fe Mine already produced gold between 1988 and 1994, but was abandoned at a price of a mere USD 340. At today's gold price levels, the metrics look entirely different. The existing infrastructure, three private water wells with full rights, year-round accessible roads, and a dedicated substation, significantly reduces risk. This makes the project attractive, even if the market gets tougher.

Management estimates Lahontan's current resource at just under 2 million ounces of gold equivalent. But what is really exciting is the growth potential. With the recently approved exploration permit, drilling is now permitted across the entire 28 sq km property. This opens the door to over 700 new drill holes. In particular, the West Santa Fe satellite project recently delivered promising results, such as 36.6 m at 3.11 g/t gold equivalent (AuEq) from surface, including a high-grade core of 10.7 m at 5.75 g/t AuEq. The material could easily be transported by truck to the main processing plant. This means there is no need for two processing plants; instead, a single plant can serve both projects.

Lahontan recently closed a financing round of approximately CAD 14 million, and its cash reserves are well-stocked at the equivalent of CAD 11–12 million. Monthly administrative costs are a manageable CAD 120,000. For the planned mine construction, management is deliberately seeking debt financing to avoid diluting shareholders. Four financing groups have already signaled interest in the project. The estimated payback period of just 15 to 18 months makes the model particularly attractive to lenders. So anyone looking for a gold production candidate with a clear roadmap will find in Lahontan a candidate with an unusually large number of structural advantages. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.35.

Vonovia – Fundamentals Intact, But The Market is Skeptical

The operating business of Germany's largest residential real estate group is delivering solid figures. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose by 6% in 2025 to just under EUR 2.8 billion, and the occupancy rate remains robust at 97.9%. Rents increased organically by 4.1%. For the current year, management is targeting adjusted EBITDA between EUR 2.95 billion and EUR 3.05 billion. By 2028, the range is expected to rise to up to EUR 3.5 billion - a clear signal for anyone paying attention to operational fundamentals.

Under new leadership, balance sheet restructuring is a top priority. The debt-to-equity ratio stood at 45.4% at the end of 2025; the target for 2028 is around 40%. To achieve this, sales of non-strategic assets totaling EUR 5 billion are planned, including equity stakes and non-core properties. Management emphasizes, however, that short-term divestments should not come at the expense of long-term value creation. This is a fine line that investors should continue to monitor closely.

Shareholders can look forward to a slight increase in the dividend to EUR 1.25 per share, up from EUR 1.22 in the previous year. At current share prices, this translates to a dividend yield of just under 5.6%. Most analyst firms remain positive. Goldman, JPMorgan, and Berenberg reaffirm their "Buy" recommendations, even though they have slightly lowered their price targets. May 7, 2026, will be decisive, when the quarterly figures show whether the operational momentum is holding and interest rate fears are temporary. Following the release of the figures, the stock fell significantly. Currently, a share costs EUR 22.34.

In light of surging oil prices and returning inflation, three distinct investment options present themselves. Shell benefits directly from the price shock and rewards shareholders with share buybacks and dividends, even though regulatory risks remain. Lahontan Gold is tapping into an inflation-proof gold opportunity with its Santa Fe project in Nevada, thanks to intact infrastructure and promising drill results. The leap to becoming a gold producer is foreseeable. Vonovia is performing well operationally with rising rents and a 5.6% dividend yield, but continues to battle balance sheet concerns and market skepticism.