Hydrogen renaissance – Plug Power, Pure Hydrogen, and Nel ASA want a slice of the USD 680 billion pie

Plug Power – Why the hydrogen pioneer could turn the corner

Plug Power is finally showing tangible improvements. Revenue climbed 21% to USD 174 million in the second quarter, driven by a tripling of its electrolyser business. More importantly, the once-disastrous gross margin has improved from -92% to -31%. This is a quantum leap, even if the Company continues to post losses. The drivers are the rigorous efficiency program "Project Quantum Leap," lower service costs, and optimized supply contracts. This operational progress is no coincidence, but the result of consistent cost management. For investors, this signals that a fundamental turnaround is feasible.

Major international projects and strong partners such as Uline are opening up new markets for Plug Power. Over 230 megawatts (MW) of electrolyzer projects are currently in the pipeline in Europe, Australia, and North America. At the same time, the government is providing planning security. The US "One Big Beautiful Bill" cements long-term tax advantages for green hydrogen. This combination of strategic alliances and regulatory tailwinds reduces risks and lays the foundation for sustainable growth. The Company is leveraging its pioneering role to establish itself as a system provider for industrial hydrogen solutions.

Management has often disappointed in the past, but recently, the executive bodies have shown confidence in their own company. Notable insider purchases, particularly by the CFO, demonstrate conviction in the turnaround. Although cash consumption remains high, liquidity is secure. With USD 140 million in cash and an additional USD 300 million in available credit lines, Plug Power has breathing room for the coming quarters. Government loan guarantees alleviate short-term insolvency fears. This financial stability, coupled with a clear roadmap to gross margin neutrality by the end of the year, gives the Company time to implement its plans. The conditions for a turnaround are better than they have been for a long time. The share price is currently USD 1.70.

Pure Hydrogen – Name change as a strategic move

Australian company Pure Hydrogen plans to change its name to Pure One, which could prove to be a smart move. The new name reflects the Company's expanded focus. It no longer wants to offer just hydrogen, but the entire spectrum of low-emission transport solutions. The Company retains its brand recognition with "Pure," while "One" signals leadership and innovation. The proposal met with broad internal approval, but shareholders still have to approve it at the upcoming annual general meeting. This deliberate move away from a single variant of zero-emission vehicles creates scope for future diversification without unsettling partners or shareholders.

Commercial vehicles remain at the heart of the business, but now with a broader choice of technologies. In addition to hydrogen fuel cells (HFC), Pure is increasingly focusing on battery electric vehicles (BEV) and newly developed hybrids. On August 11, the Company announced new orders worth more than AUD 3 million for hydrogen trucks in Australia. Scott Lovatt Transport has ordered two TS70-400 "Taurus" prime movers worth over AUD 2 million, subject to the finalization of funding. Heidelberg Materials has also ordered a second 8×4 concrete mixer. Deliveries are scheduled for 2026. The orders point to growing demand for hydrogen trucks in the heavy-duty segment. The latest quarterly figures also showed positive cash flow from operating activities for the second quarter in a row.

The internationalization strategy is bearing fruit. In Australia, renowned customers such as Heidelberg Materials and Barwon Water are securing hydrogen trucks. At the same time, strong government incentives in North America are opening up the market for HFC solutions. In the US, the Company is working with Riverview International. In addition, there are distribution agreements with partners such as GreenH2 LATAM in Mexico and now also in Argentina with FRN Enterprise for the whole of South America. This region-specific approach—BEV where infrastructure and subsidies are suitable, HFC where it makes sense—maximizes market reach and reduces the risk of one-sided dependencies. Analysts at MST Access see a target price of AUD 0.27. The share is currently trading at AUD 0.105.

Nel ASA – Why the hydrogen pioneer is not yet finished

Nel is in the midst of a deep crisis. Revenue has halved, order intake has slumped by 74% and production has been partially halted. The alkali business is particularly suffering from a lack of major projects. Many hydrogen projects are simply not profitable, and subsidy programs are slow to get off the ground. But while the quarterly figures are alarming, the solid cash reserve of NOK 1.9 billion provides breathing space. This financial robustness gives management time to continue the cost-cutting measures already initiated and to push ahead with strategic priorities. This is not sugarcoating, but a necessary basis for the turnaround.

This is Nel's greatest strength. The Company remains a global leader in technology. The parallel development of highly efficient alkali and PEM electrolysers, supported by highly automated production as in Herøya, is a clear competitive advantage. Nel is currently working intensively on the next generation of equipment. Progress with prototypes and test runs is encouraging. In addition, strategic partnerships with industry giants such as GM and Reliance show that leading players continue to rely on Nel's expertise. This technological depth is crucial for attracting future large orders once the market recovers.

Nel's future depends less on quarterly figures than on the big picture. The global hydrogen market is growing in the long term, driven by decarbonization targets and billion-dollar subsidy programs in the EU and the US. Nel has strengthened its position through capital increases and has become more efficient through focusing measures such as the spin-off of its filling station division. The decisive factor will be whether political incentives finally translate into concrete investment decisions. The growing pipeline of preliminary studies suggests that this is the case. If these projects are realized, Nel is well-positioned to benefit massively thanks to its scalability and technological leadership. The turnaround seems possible, but it will take time and a stable market environment. The share is currently available for NOK 2.392.

The global hydrogen market, with USD 680 billion in investments, is on the verge of a breakthrough, driven by decarbonization and falling renewable electricity costs. Three players are strategically positioning themselves in this momentum. Plug Power is showing credible signs of a turnaround with strong revenue growth, a sharp improvement in gross margin, and operational discipline. Pure Hydrogen (soon to be Pure One) is wisely expanding its portfolio with low-emission transport solutions and tapping into international markets through regional partnerships. Despite dramatic slumps in revenue and order intake, Nel ASA is weathering the crisis with technological leadership, a strong cash position and focus, but remains dependent on external triggers. The industry is moving irreversibly forward, but the pace and success of the players vary considerably.