Alcoa, Antimony Resources, MP Materials: Despite the Hormuz Strait Opening, the Battle for Critical Metals Continues

Alcoa: Margin Pressure Despite Positive Market Outlook

The current situation in the global aluminum market is characterized by a supply shortage due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Since this region accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, financial institutions expect a significant price increase. On international commodity exchanges, the price could rise to as much as USD 4,000 per ton in the medium term. At the same time, demand remains consistently high, supported by steady material requirements from sectors such as electric mobility, solar energy, and the expansion of technology data centers.

Despite the general rise in commodity prices, the American aluminum company Alcoa has reduced its profit forecast for the second quarter of 2026, leading to an immediate drop in its share price of over 9%. This correction stems primarily from unplanned cost increases, which are expected to reduce adjusted operating income in the alumina segment by USD 60 million. This is due to several individual factors. Storm damage at the Australian facility in Pinjarra is resulting in repair costs of USD 30 million, while an additional USD 20 million is attributable to increased energy expenses. Furthermore, lower sales volumes and reduced selling prices in the bauxite business are weighing on earnings by an additional USD 10 million.
Beyond production, the company is recording additional expenses of USD 35 million due to new US tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports, as well as a tax burden revised upward by USD 15 million.

Despite this cost development, analysts at various major banks continue to view Alcoa's outlook positively and classify the recent share price decline as an exaggerated market reaction. For example, investment bank Morgan Stanley maintains its "Overweight" rating. They emphasize that the aforementioned expenses are expected to reduce full-year 2026 forecasts by only about 2%. The headwinds in the alumina sector are also offset by expected revenue increases of around USD 55 million in the pure aluminum division.

Antimony Resources: Bald Hill Delivers New Record Results

While investors are currently focusing primarily on gold, copper, or rare earths, antimony is another strategic commodity increasingly coming into focus. The rare metal is used in ammunition, night vision devices, semiconductors, and batteries, among other applications and is considered a critical raw material for national security according to the US Geological Survey. Since China dominates the global market and has recently tightened its export controls, Western countries are increasingly seeking independent sources of supply such as Antimony Resources.

With the Bald Hill project in New Brunswick, the Canadian exploration company is developing a potentially significant antimony deposit for the North American market. Since the full acquisition in early 2025, the project has been consistently advanced. More than 5,000 m of drilling have already yielded numerous high-grade hits. The exploration potential modelled to date amounts to approximately 2.7 million tonnes with grades between 3% and 4% antimony. The known main zone now extends over about 700 m and remains open both at depth and along strike.

New results from the South Zone are now fueling further excitement. There, the company analyzed 38 samples from a 200 m-long trenching program. The results are impressive. An average of 19.5% antimony was identified, with peak values reaching as high as 44.2%. The South Zone is located approximately 900 m south of the Main Zone and appears to run parallel to it. This suggests the presence of another distinct mineralized system within the project area.

According to management, the new data not only confirms the exceptionally high grades but also indicates a significantly larger extent of mineralization than previously assumed. The latest findings underscore the potential of the newly identified target areas, which will be tested soon through ongoing drilling programs. Should the continuity of the mineralization be confirmed, Bald Hill could emerge as one of North America's most significant antimony discoveries in the medium term.

MP Materials: Beneficiary of Geopolitical Realignment

The global rare earths industry is currently undergoing a structural transformation. Western nations are striving to drastically reduce their dependence on Chinese suppliers and establish independent supply chains. To support this effort and protect domestic producers from state-subsidized competition from Asia, governments are intervening. One example of this is the US government's establishment of a guaranteed minimum price for the material neodymium-praseodymium. This policy shift is currently initiating a long-term, capital-intensive investment cycle within the sector.

The US company MP Materials is well-positioned for this for the time being, as MPM's financial performance in the first quarter of 2026 proved more robust than expected. The company generated earnings of USD 0.03 per share, while preliminary estimates had anticipated a loss. Quarterly revenue of USD 90.65 million also exceeded market expectations.
Strategically, the group is focusing on localizing the entire value chain. With USD 400 million in financial support from the US Department of Defense, MP Materials plans to build an expanded magnet production facility in Texas. Operations are scheduled to begin in 2028. In exchange for the funding, the company guaranteed the government fixed supply quotas for the next ten years. The goal is to handle all production steps in the US, from ore mining to the finished magnet. Customers for these products are increasingly found in sectors such as electric mobility, industrial robotics, and data center cooling systems.

The research firm Needham initiated coverage of the stock with a "Buy" recommendation and a price target of USD 81. The analysts highlighted the company's leading role in Western markets. DA Davidson also confirmed a "Buy" recommendation with a price target of USD 82.

The geopolitical realignment of commodity markets is creating new winners. While Alcoa could benefit from a tight aluminum market and rising prices, Antimony Resources is providing further evidence of a significant antimony discovery with high-grade findings at Bald Hill. MP Materials, in turn, is positioning itself as a key player in building Western supply chains for rare earths. Aluminum, antimony, and rare earths are indispensable for energy, defence, and AI, and could present above-average opportunities for investors in the coming years.