April 9th, 2026 | 07:40 CEST
Almonty Industries: Poised to Benefit from Tungsten Supply Constraints and Defense Demand
With the ceasefire in the Middle East, a new phase may emerge: increased rearmament. The arsenals in the US, Israel, and the Gulf states have been severely depleted. How quickly the replenishment succeeds is likely to depend heavily on the supply of critical raw materials. And in many cases, China, as a de facto monopolist, holds significant influence. One essential metal is tungsten. It is used not only for ammunition and missiles but also, for example, in the semiconductor industry. In this sector, genuine supply bottlenecks appear to be looming. Major Japanese companies are, in any case, warning of this. Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that the price of tungsten has risen from USD 900 to around USD 3,000 per metric ton unit (MTU) this year alone. Nor is it surprising that Almonty Industries is a real analyst favorite. The tungsten producer is positioned for strong earnings growth.
time to read: 3 minutes
|
Author:
Fabian Lorenz
ISIN:
ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203987072 | TSX: AII , NASDAQ: ALM , ASX: AII
Table of contents:
Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
Tag cloud
Shares cloud
Not Enough Tungsten For The Semiconductor Industry?
Last Friday, the price for a metric ton unit (MTU), equivalent to 10 kg, of the rare raw material reached levels of up to USD 3,190 on the Rotterdam trading floor. This continues the sharp rally and overshadows developments in nearly every other commodity. At the beginning of this year, the price was still around USD 900 per MTU.
While the focus is usually on tungsten's importance in the defense industry, other sectors also rely on this particularly hard metal. A potential shortage is emerging in the semiconductor sector. A few days ago, the Korean news portal thelec.net reported that industry experts are already warning of an imminent risk regarding tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆). According to the report, Japanese WF₆ producers, who account for about 25% of global supply, have informed their South Korean customers in the semiconductor industry of potential supply shortages in the second half of 2026. The reason is that Chinese export controls on tungsten are making it increasingly difficult to procure the raw material for further processing. Inventory levels are expected to cover current production volumes only until June. South Korean customers include chip manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix.
Almonty with Perfect Timing
A potential supply alternative for the South Korean semiconductor industry could be closer than expected. Just a few days ago, the completion ceremony for the Sangdong Mine took place in South Korea. This is one of the larger tungsten deposits globally. It is operated by Almonty Industries. Since acquiring the historic mine in 2015, Almonty has invested more than USD 100 million in the revitalization of Sangdong. The mine began operations at the end of 2025 and is expected to process approximately 640,000 tons of ore per year in the first phase. In Phase 2, production capacity is expected to double again. Sangdong is then projected to meet around 40% of global tungsten demand outside of China, thereby achieving global strategic significance. The Almonty CEO has repeatedly pointed out in recent months that Sangdong is likely also the most efficient mine in the world. Margins are therefore expected to be correspondingly high. This is because the mine, which has a 45-year lifespan, was developed when the price of tungsten was around USD 300 per MTU. As previously mentioned, the price is now over USD 3,000.
https://youtu.be/DsOOCftcQpU?si=AT0DdFnTjxYhpudg
Sangdong is not Almonty's only mine. The company has been active in Portugal for years and is currently expanding its mine there. And in the US, the company acquired a project at the end of 2025 and plans to bring it into production this year.
Analysts Remain Conservative
Given the market and Almonty's unique position, it is not surprising that the stock has attracted strong analyst attention. In Germany, the company is covered by GBC Research. Due to rapidly rising tungsten prices and the successful ramp-up of the Sangdong mine, analysts have significantly raised their earnings estimates and price targets.
GBC analyst Matthias Greiffenberger comments: "The tungsten market has undergone structural changes. Export restrictions, growing demand from the defense and high-tech industries, and limited new production capacity outside of China are leading to a sustainably higher price level. Combined with the production ramp-up in Sangdong, this results in a significantly improved earnings profile for Almonty."
For the current year, analysts expect EBITDA of CAD 260 million. In 2027, it is expected to rise to CAD 640 million and approach the billion-dollar mark in 2028. Based on these outlooks, GBC analysts have raised the price target for Almonty shares from CAD 9 to CAD 28.60, or around EUR 17.71.
With these estimates, the analysts remain very conservative. This is because their model is based on a tungsten price of just USD 1,500 per MTU—currently, it is twice that amount.
It is therefore not surprising that estimates from firms such as Cantor Fitzgerald are significantly higher. Analysts expect Almonty to generate an EBITDA of CAD 488.1 million this year. Next year, that figure could reach around CAD 844 million. Cantor Fitzgerald estimates the fair value of Almonty stock at CAD 36. The NASDAQ stock is currently trading at around CAD 23.
Conclusion: A Correction Equals a Buying Opportunity
Almonty shares have corrected sharply in recent weeks. This also happened several times last year and has always proven to be an attractive buying opportunity. There is much to suggest that the same will hold true this time. Demand for tungsten will remain high, China will continue to restrict exports, and Almonty will increase its production. Furthermore, many analysts' estimates still appear to be too conservative.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.
The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.
Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.
The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.
The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.
