Time to Sell Moderna Stock After a 200% Rally? A Comeback for Standard Lithium and HPQ Silicon?

HPQ Silicon: Good Reasons for a Stock Market Comeback

At HPQ Silicon, news about the drone joint venture has dominated headlines in recent weeks. Now there is also positive news from the materials business. Together with PyroGenesis, the company has restructured the ownership structure for the commercialization of its technology for producing fumed silica. Following successful pilot tests, the focus is now shifting more strongly toward commercial use.

HPQ Silicon and PyroGenesis have laid the groundwork for the joint commercialization of their technology for producing fumed silica. Both companies now each hold a 50% stake in HPQ Silica Polvere, the rights holder of the Fumed Silica Reactor (FSR). In exchange, PyroGenesis converted its previous claim to a 10% sales royalty into an equity stake. The partners are thus aligning their interests: HPQ financed the development up to the pilot phase, while PyroGenesis developed and built the reactor and will exclusively supply the equipment in the future.

Technologically, the process has already made significant progress. In pilot operations, the companies succeeded in producing commercially available "150"-grade fumed silica directly from quartz. Independent tests confirmed its commercial viability. The single-stage process does not require chlorosilanes and avoids the associated formation of hydrogen chloride. This offers the prospect of lower investment and operating costs, as well as reduced energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. A subsequent technical evaluation by PyroGenesis further strengthened confidence in the expected economic viability of future large-scale plants.

Several concrete avenues for commercial implementation are already being explored. Possible next steps for a collaboration are being examined with a globally active silica manufacturer. Negotiations have also resumed regarding a joint project with an annual capacity of 1,000 metric tons. An Asian prospective partner offers particularly great potential; based on current information, their demand could require several plants, each with an annual capacity of 10,000 metric tons. In addition, discussions are planned regarding a potential production facility in the Middle East with an annual capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons. These projects open up attractive sales prospects but remain in the negotiation stage; no binding commercial agreements have been reached to date.

And here is a summary of the latest news from the drone industry. HPQ partner Novacium has received an order from French drone specialist Alta Ares for more than 100 AA-NOVA battery packs for the X-Lock interceptor drone system. The batteries, which feature silicon-based anode technology, are expected to weigh less than the reference battery used to date while delivering at least comparable performance. Previously, Novacium had already delivered 30 battery packs to three European drone manufacturers for final qualification tests and won its first commercial order for FPV drones from a French regiment. For HPQ, which holds a 36.8% stake in Novacium, this opens up a promising sales channel in the European defense market in addition to its materials business, as well as important references for approaching potential customers in North America.

Standard Lithium: New Customer Leaves Stock Unmoved

Standard Lithium, together with Equinor through the Smackover Lithium partnership, has expanded the sales base for the Southwestern Arkansas project. An amendment to the 10-year offtake agreement with Trafigura allows for the delivery of up to 4,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, in addition to the agreed-upon 8,000 metric tons. Combined with the agreement for 8,000 metric tons annually with LG Energy Solution, the potential offtake volume thus rises to 20,000 metric tons. This represents just under 89% of the initially planned annual capacity of 22,500 metric tons and exceeds the original sales target of 18,000 metric tons. Smackover may, at its discretion, supply the additional volumes to Trafigura or offer them to other customers under more attractive terms.

According to the company, this means there are sufficient offtake commitments to finalize the targeted external financing of approximately USD 1.1 billion. Due diligence with three major export credit agencies is already well underway; no further offtake agreements are required for this process. The focus is now on finalizing the financing and making the final investment decision, which is still scheduled for this year. Construction is then expected to begin promptly. The company aims to start the first commercial production of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2029.

Standard Lithium's stock failed to benefit from the announcement. The stock is trading at a yearly low and has already lost over 60% of its value in 2026. Investors are still waiting for the financing to be secured and for the final investment decision. Only then is the stock likely to be ripe for a comeback.

Sell Moderna?

While HPQ Silicon and Standard Lithium are still waiting for a comeback on the stock market, Moderna has had a spectacular few weeks. Since mid-August, the biotech company's stock has soared from USD 63 to over USD 200.

The price surge was driven by progress in cancer research. The decisive impetus came from the US company on August 19 with positive results from a Phase 3 trial of the personalized mRNA cancer therapy Intismeran autogene. When used in combination with Merck's immunotherapy Keytruda, it improved relapse-free survival in patients following complete surgical removal of a melanoma compared to Keytruda alone. A statistically significant advantage was also observed in terms of survival without distant metastases. Investors celebrated the hope that the company has true pipeline blockbusters. Studies on other tumor types are fueling further optimism. However, their success and the potential approval of Intismeran remain uncertain.

Most recently, a "Sell" recommendation triggered profit-taking. However, the stock has already recovered from this. Citigroup warns against overly optimistic expectations. Analysts downgraded Moderna from "Neutral" to "Sell" last week. Although they raised their price target from USD 60 to USD 80, this still represented a potential decline of about 61% from the previous closing price of USD 203.46. According to their calculations, the valuation assumes annual oncology revenues of about USD 26 billion. Citi considers this figure too ambitious. In addition, Moderna shares the business with Merck.

A correction in Moderna's stock would come as no surprise. Nevertheless, it remains a top pick in the biotech sector. There are good reasons to expect a comeback for HPQ Silicon shares. The company is active in several exciting areas. As for Standard Lithium, investors are still waiting for financing to be secured or for the final investment decision to be made. If there is positive news on this front, the stock is likely to rise significantly—but only then.