Three trends, one goal: How Bayer, MustGrow Biologics, and BASF are turning the agricultural revolution into a profit opportunity

Bayer – Stable agricultural business and pharmaceuticals provide growth momentum

The Leverkusen-based group has presented its figures for 2025 and achieved the targets it set in the summer. Currency-adjusted revenue rose by 1.1% to EUR 45.6 billion, while adjusted operating profit fell short of the previous year at EUR 9.7 billion. Negative currency effects of just under EUR 1.7 billion had a particularly negative impact. The bottom line is a consolidated loss of EUR 3.6 billion, mainly driven by special expenses for legal disputes. Free cash flow fell significantly to EUR 2.1 billion, but the company was able to reduce its net debt to EUR 29.8 billion.

The agricultural division grew by 1.1% to EUR 21.6 billion on a currency-adjusted basis. This was mainly due to the corn seed business, which grew by 13.2% worldwide. This increase was achieved through strong product performance, larger cultivation areas, and a licensing agreement with Corteva in North America. Vegetable seeds also performed well. In contrast, fungicides suffered from market-related declines in North America and Asia, while insecticides lost ground due to expiring registrations in Europe. Business with glyphosate-based products remained stable. The division's adjusted operating profit fell by 3.2% to EUR 4.2 billion. This was due to negative regulatory effects and higher expenses for variable compensation.

The Pharmaceuticals division increased revenue by 1.7% to EUR 17.8 billion on a currency-adjusted basis. The growth drivers were clearly the cancer drug Nubeqa, with an increase of 62%, and the kidney drug Kerendia, which rose by 88%. In contrast, there were significant declines for Xarelto following patent expiries and for Eylea due to price pressure and generic competition. Operating profit fell by 4.2%, which the company attributes to higher marketing expenses for new products and indications. The consumer division struggled with weak markets in the US and China and remained stable at the previous year's level with revenue of EUR 5.8 billion. For 2026, Bayer expects currency-adjusted revenue of EUR 45-47 billion and an operating profit of between EUR 9.6 and 10.1 billion. The share is currently trading at EUR 38.61.

MustGrow Biologics – The mustard factor

Agriculture is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Synthetic pesticides and fertilizers are coming under pressure worldwide, with around 460 active ingredients now banned in 162 countries alone. At the same time, yields on existing land must increase. This gap opens up a structural window for biological alternatives. MustGrow Biologics has positioned itself in this environment with a specific niche. The Canadians use the natural defenses of the mustard plant to combat soil diseases and improve soil fertility. What sets the company apart from the crowd of biologics providers is the proof that its products are not only "green" but also strong enough for commercial use.

The validation comes from practical experience. In a two-year field program on approximately 40 hectares of Canadian canola acreage, the TerraMG™ product significantly suppressed the dreaded clubroot, a disease for which there are few effective remedies. In a wet year with high disease pressure, yields increased by up to 19% and spore concentration in the soil decreased by 95%. Even more convincing for day-to-day business is the development of TerraSante™, an organic fertilizer for the US market. Demand from large-scale farmers in Washington and Idaho was so strong in 2025 that MustGrow's products were sold out. One potato farmer reported an additional yield of 2 tons per acre, which, at a product cost of USD 180 per acre, is a crystal-clear economic argument.

MustGrow has positioned itself more broadly than most development companies. With the acquisition of NexusBioAg, the company now has its own distribution channel in Canada, which sells over 40 products from established brands and generates recurring revenue. This creates market access for its own new developments. At the same time, it is working with the German Bayer Group in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The deal, which leaves the registration costs of an estimated USD 35 to 40 million to the German partner and secures milestone payments and subsequent license revenues for MustGrow, marks the company's move overseas. Recently completed financing of CAD 2 million is now being used to ramp up production in order to eliminate supply bottlenecks and meet rising demand. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.54.

BASF – Between austerity measures and green investments

Chemical giant BASF has presented its figures for 2025. The message is clear: the company is preparing for a prolonged dry spell. Revenue and operating profit declined, while free cash flow increased significantly. This was no coincidence, but rather the result of an aggressive austerity program. The company now aims to save around EUR 1.7 billion annually, EUR 100 million more than originally targeted. For the current year, the Board of Executive Directors is forecasting a broad earnings range of EUR 6.2-7.0 billion. No one on the Ludwigshafen-based Board of Executive Directors expects a rapid recovery in the chemical market.

Investors are likely to take a closer look at the development of free cash flow. It rose to EUR 1.3 billion in 2025, not least because capital expenditure was significantly reduced. Those responsible intend to maintain this capital discipline. By 2029, expenditures of only EUR 13 billion are planned, a substantial decrease of 20% compared to previous plans. At the same time, shareholder remuneration remains generous. At a current price of EUR 46.11, this results in a dividend yield of around 4.9%. At the same time, a share buyback program worth EUR 1.5 billion is underway, which is expected to be completed by the summer.

BASF is paying particular attention to its agricultural business. The Agricultural Solutions division proved robust in 2025 and is set to go public in 2027. To prepare it for the spin-off, the company is making substantial acquisitions. The acquisition of US specialist AgBiTech, which is to be completed in the first half of the year, underscores the company's desire to be at the forefront of biological crop protection. With its viral agents against insect pests, BASF is tapping into a market that is growing by up to 15% annually.

For the agricultural industry, ecological transformation is no longer purely a risk, but a strategic growth opportunity. Bayer is focusing on stability in crop protection and driving growth with strong pharmaceutical products, but remains hampered by legal burdens. MustGrow Biologics is proving that biological solutions such as TerraMG™ are not only ecological but also commercially viable thanks to convincing additional yields, and is tapping into global markets through partnerships. BASF, in turn, is setting the course for the future by strengthening its agricultural business through acquisitions in the bio sector and preparing for its IPO. All three show that those who combine sustainability and profitability can turn the industry's transformation into a real profit opportunity.