Disruption at the Core of Big Tech and EVs – How HPQ Silicon Could Shape Micron and BYD

HPQ Silicon: Underestimated disruption potential

To understand the dimensions of the market, one has to start at the base, with the materials. In a strategic alliance with plasma-technology specialist PyroGenesis and Novacium, in which HPQ is the largest single shareholder with 36.8%, the Canadians have set out to fundamentally revolutionize the production of high-purity silicon as well as forward-looking anode materials.

Silicon is clearly superior to other materials, but it also has one decisive drawback. During charging, the material expands many times over, destroying the cell's structure. HPQ has achieved a major breakthrough, cracking the physical code with a proprietary, highly efficient production process that stabilizes the silicon at the nano level.

After a decade defined by consistent research and development work, the company is step by step reaching decisive milestones across its various business areas and can report commercialization successes. The industrial Generation 4 lithium-ion cells (GEN4 21700), a standard format, achieved a capacity of over 7,000 mAh in an extended test series, a figure that ranks among the absolute top values globally. The reported energy density of 395 Wh/kg for a drone battery pack is also convincing. An order from a European drone manufacturer is already in place.

With government funding of CAD 3 million, the ramp-up of silicon anode material production is taking shape. Initially, capacity is 2 t p.a. and will be expanded step by step to 50 t p.a. In the final phase, according to company figures, around 40 million battery cells could then be produced.

Most recently, a landmark letter of intent was concluded between HPQ, its associate Novacium and the propulsion specialist LN Innov from France. The aim is to examine the realization of a Canadian electric propulsion platform for drone, robotics and defence applications. Novacium has developed a tailor-made nano-silicon powder for anodes.

In the fumed silica (pyrogenic silicon oxide) area, HPQ is in the transition phase from technology validation to commercialization. The pilot plant has successfully produced pyrogenic silicon oxide, and a first customer order is in place. Fumed silica is an ultra-fine abrasive that polishes the wafer flawlessly so that the nanostructures can even be printed without defects in the first place. With this, HPQ delivers an irreplaceable raw material, without which downstream manufacturing steps in chip production would simply be impossible.

As a third pillar, the company is advancing the development of new processes to produce green hydrogen in collaboration with Novacium. The shares are currently trading at around CAD 0.16, giving the company a market value of approximately CAD 75 million.

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Micron Technology: Despite its share-price surge, the stock is not expensive

Micron Technology is among the world's leading manufacturers of modern HBM memory and is benefiting massively from the global AI infrastructure boom. Its high performance is based on a vertically stacked architecture. The production of these complex components places the highest demands on material purity and precision. Could HPQ come into play here in the future?

The share price has multiplied over the past 12 months. The forecast increases are gigantic. Analysts expect the tech giant to grow revenue to USD 130 billion in the current fiscal year and to reach USD 234 billion in 2027. Profit is expected to double over this period from USD 83 billion to almost USD 159 billion. Given this momentum, very modest P/E ratios of 13 and 7 result for this year and next. Experts on average put the stock's upside potential at a good 50%.

BYD: Integration is the trump card

The Chinese have caught up with Tesla as the world's largest producer of electric vehicles. This success is based substantially on uncompromising vertical integration. Through control of around 75% of the value-adding components, the group has an excellent cost structure. Famous is its own "Blade Battery", which is installed in the vehicles. According to press reports, BYD intends to launch the first genuine solid-state battery on the market next year.

A burdening factor is the persistently strong price war on its home market. Through innovation, its integrated strategic approach and stronger internationalization, the group can counteract this. The first European plant, located in Hungary, is scheduled to start up in Q4 2026. Since the beginning of the year, the shares have given up ground slightly. Analysts now again attest to the stock's upside potential of around 50%.

Even though memory chips and electric vehicles do not seem to have much in common at first glance, they share a common problem. Carbon and graphite structures are reaching their saturation limits. This is where HPQ comes into play, positioning itself as a disruptor in silicon and battery technology with its innovative solutions. Following share price declines, analysts once again see significant upside potential for the shares of Micron and BYD.