The witch dance continues! Another 100% with TKMS, DroneShield, Pasinex, or the new CSG?

DroneShield – Slanted double top and out?

Speaking of 100% opportunities: Australian defense company DroneShield usually makes such moves in a matter of weeks. The recent price jumps are spectacular, but they do not justify uncritical optimism. The massive price slump of around 80% in recent months was no coincidence, but was triggered largely by extensive insider sales by management and employees, a signal that investors should not simply ignore. Although the Company recently impressed with a major order worth AUD 49.6 million from Europe and reinforced its position in the market for drone defense systems, caution remains warranted from a valuation perspective.

Based on the current market capitalization, the traded price implies a price-to-sales ratio (P/S 2026) of around 10, which is considered ambitious even in the high-growth defense tech segment. This valuation assumes that DroneShield can sustainably scale its recent order intake and significantly improve margins and cash flows. At the same time, the insider sales observed previously clearly contradict the officially communicated growth story and raise questions about the internal assessment of the valuation. Analyst recommendations with high price targets do not change the fact that significant governance risks remain. This means that the stock is less of a classic value or quality stock and more of a highly volatile momentum investment. In the short term, imagination may dominate again, but the current sloping double top should be a wake-up call for technically oriented investors!

Pasinex Resources – Turkish mining projects ensure stable margins and growth potential

Tin specialist Pasinex Resources took a strategically important step at the end of 2025 by successfully completing the full acquisition of the Turkish company Horzum A.S. The Company now controls 100% of the high-grade Pinargozu zinc mine and can make operational and strategic decisions without joint venture restrictions. The completed share transfer creates clear ownership structures and forms the basis for accelerated implementation of the production and development plan from 2026 onwards. Operational progress at the mine is evident, including new infrastructure, improved logistics areas, and increasing surface stocks of zinc sulfide material. Ongoing production and the expansion of reserves underscore that Pinargozu is not only an exploration asset but also a resilient cash flow asset.

Pasinex Chairman Dr. Larry Seeley spoke with IIF moderator Lyndsay Malchuk about the plans for 2026.

In the broader market environment, Pasinex is benefiting from the growing strategic importance of zinc in the wake of the global energy transition. Declining supply from depleted deposits is meeting rising demand from infrastructure, mobility, and energy storage applications. A key competitive advantage of Pasinex lies in its exceptionally high ore grades, which are well above the global industry average and enable direct sales to smelters. This eliminates cost-intensive processing steps, keeping production costs low and allowing attractive margins even in a volatile zinc price environment.

In parallel with its operational development, Pasinex has improved its balance sheet structure by converting a significant portion of its liabilities into equity through a share issue. This measure reduces short-term financial pressure, but is accompanied by dilution for existing shareholders. On the positive side, this allows the Company to conserve its liquidity and gain financial leeway for the further development of its attractive assets. Given its comparatively low market valuation of around CAD 20 million, the Company offers significant leverage on an increasingly tight zinc market in the coming years. A 100% increase is possible, as can be seen from the price movement since July 2025. With the current announcements, this could happen a second time. With good liquidity, entry can be made between EUR 0.05 and EUR 0.07. However, a little patience and risk appetite are required.

TKMS and CSG – Is there a Czech reissue à la TKMS?

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) went public on October 20, 2025, with the initial share price officially set at EUR 60. The Duisburg-based parent company retained 51% of the shares in TKMS, while 49% of the shares were distributed to existing thyssenkrupp shareholders. The media portrays TKMS as a beneficiary of the rapidly growing defense market, with a steadily growing order backlog of around EUR 18 billion and thus visible sales prospects over several years. The Company's revenues in the first nine months of fiscal year 2025 amounted to approximately EUR 1.59 billion, the same as for the whole of 2024. It is not entirely clear why TKMS can only achieve an operating margin of just under 4% from this revenue. Analysts and the media emphasize that the TKMS IPO will enable a better valuation compared to the parent company, as the naval and defense division can now operate independently on the capital market and appears much more attractive. So the signs are not bad, but given top prices of around EUR 100, investors should still wait for the 2025 press conference and the new guidance for 2026. A market value of EUR 6 billion for just under EUR 2 billion in revenue is actually well paid!

The situation is similar to the latest Czech IPO of CSG N.V., which caused a sensation last week. The heavily defense-oriented industrial group started its initial public offering with a valuation of around EUR 30 billion and issue proceeds of close to EUR 4 billion. This meant that the IPO reached dimensions last seen when Porsche made its debut. Buoyed by enormous institutional demand, the share price jumped well above the issue price and showed high volatility in the following days, indicating that pricing is still ongoing. Majority shareholder Michal Strnad realized billions in proceeds, while the Company itself received fresh capital of over EUR 750 million for further growth. With a premium of only 30% after five trading days, the share price is actually running too moderately, which calls for caution. Perhaps the placement banks still have some material left. Given the already ambitious valuation at the start, it is likely worth waiting a little longer.

The stock markets remain in rapid mode. This applies to high-tech, defense, and AI stocks as well as to selected commodity stocks. Only the focus is changing. While investors were able to reap dream returns with tech and defense stocks until the end of 2025, most investors are now aware of the deficit situation in the metals sector. The need for action is clear, and the century's revenue in the commodities sector shows how great the pressure is. Silver, the flagship metal, is up 250% in 6 months – any questions?