The Week of Truth: Jitters at Amazon, Cool Heads at Vertiv, Bright Prospects at American Atomics

AMAZON: PENALIZED BEFORE THE NUMBERS ARE EVEN ON THE TABLE

On Wall Street, the tide has recently turned. Alphabet reported quarterly results last week that were well above analysts' expectations. The reward: a sharp drop on the next trading day. That is because spending on data centers continues to climb—to between USD 195 billion and USD 205 billion. That is roughly half of what Google's parent company generated in revenue in 2025. Artificial intelligence costs money. And that is exactly what investors are not appreciating right now.

This sets the tone for this week. With Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, four trillion-dollar tech giants are set to report their earnings. Amazon, in particular, is worth a closer look when CEO Andy Jassy addresses analysts on Thursday, July 30, after the US market close. That is because the arguments made by Alphabet's management also apply to the industry leader in the cloud business: the global shortage of AI chips and infrastructure components is driving up the costs of building data centers. At the same time, demand is so high that maintaining market position is virtually impossible without additional investment.

The Seattle-based company has long since ceased to be merely an online retailer. The retail business generates the bulk of revenue, while the cloud division Amazon Web Services (AWS), which leases computing power and storage space to companies worldwide, is responsible for profits. That is precisely where the company's trajectory is determined. And that is precisely where the problem currently lies. After all, computing power has to be built. Server halls, network connections, cooling systems, land, chips: the investment requirements have reached a scale that leaves even hard-nosed analysts speechless. About USD 200 billion is budgeted for this year. Experts now expect this figure to be raised to at least USD 210 billion in the quarterly report. As long as investors saw this as a growth driver, it was a selling point. In recent months, however, this view has turned on its head. As a result, the stock was already taking a hit in anticipation of Alphabet's earnings report.

For the second quarter, the market expects earnings per share of USD 1.80 to USD 1.85. If the company hits this mark, the real questions are different: how high will the investment plans be for the coming quarters? And how strongly is AWS growing? A glimmer of hope remains. Those who have already been punished by the market could benefit from a solid report. "Anything is possible on the stock market, even the opposite," as veteran investor André Kostolany (1906–1999) used to say. So this Thursday, both are conceivable—a second setback or a breakthrough. The only certainty is this: the number everyone is fixated on is not on the earnings line but on the expense line.

VERTIV: THE COOL CONTENDER AMONG THE INTERNET GIANTS

What is a cost center for Amazon appears as revenue for Vertiv. The Ohio-based company will report its quarterly results on July 29, one day before Amazon. The name may be less well-known, but Vertiv is considered a major player in the industry. Emerging from the former networking division of Emerson Electric and listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 2020, the company employs approximately 30,000 people worldwide. Its business model is based on two things without which no data center can operate: power and cooling. The first category includes uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, switchgear, and power distribution systems. These deliver clean, reliable power all the way to the individual server racks. The second category includes air conditioning technology and, increasingly important, liquid cooling. Modern AI chips generate a heat density that fans can no longer handle. Cooling is therefore provided by water directly at the processor. Added to this is a service business that generates recurring revenue through maintenance contracts.

This explains the inverse share price trend relative to Amazon and Co. When a hyperscaler, as the operators of large data centers are called, increases its budget, a portion of that money goes directly into Vertiv's order books. The news that has ruffled the feathers of Alphabet shareholders is good news here. Investors should therefore focus less on the expected earnings per share of USD 1.40 to USD 1.45 and more on the order backlog. It is the most reliable leading indicator of what the industry will actually be installing in the coming quarters.

One risk remains: the valuation includes a fair amount of premature praise. That becomes apparent at first glance from the share price performance. Amazon shares are trading at USD 231, while Vertiv shares are at USD 291—despite lower quarterly earnings per share and roughly the same estimated earnings growth through 2030. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is more telling: 45 for Vertiv's current year, 26 for Amazon. Ironically, Amazon shares, once considered notoriously expensive, almost seem like a bargain by comparison. Vertiv could serve as an effective counterweight to falling Amazon prices. But expectations are high. If order intake disappoints even slightly, things could get uncomfortable.

AMERICAN ATOMICS: WHEN WILL THE STOCK MARKET FINALLY WAKE UP?

That leaves the third level. Before electricity can be distributed and cooled, it must be generated. And in this regard, the technology industry is increasingly turning to nuclear power. Amazon is no exception here—it is a pioneer. The company acquired a stake in reactor developer X-energy and secured electricity from the Susquehanna nuclear power plant through a long-term supply contract. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet have signed similar contracts.

But reactors need fuel. The US consumes about 32 million pounds of uranium annually and produces only a tiny fraction of that itself. American Atomics is targeting precisely this gap. The Vancouver-based company is still a minnow—and not just in terms of its share price of around CAD 0.18. Its market capitalization of just CAD 12 million pales in comparison to Vertiv's approximately USD 100 billion and Amazon's approximately USD 2,6 trillion. However, this is a small player that could soon become hugely significant for the US nuclear industry—and thus for the power supply of AI data centers. Here, share price performance does not hinge on individual quarterly reports, as it does in the technology sector, but rather on operational progress. On July 16, the company filed a technical report in accordance with the Canadian standard NI 43-101 for the Lisbon Valley East project in Utah. It encompasses 217 claims—mining rights—in which American Atomics can secure up to an 80% interest.

The geological concept behind this is intriguing. Between 1950 and 1990, approximately 80 million pounds of uranium were mined in Lisbon Valley, all on the western side. The North Alice ore body ended abruptly there at a fault—not because the uranium ran out, but because the Earth's crust was displaced. The experienced mining experts on the board of directors suspect that the deposit continues 2,500 to 2,800 feet deeper—that is, about 760 to 850 m—on the subsided eastern side. This hypothesis is supported by old oil and gas wells. Notable gamma radiation readings were measured in 28 of 51 holes along a 20 km long strip. At the same time, a processing concept is being developed under the motto "From Rock to Reactor." Together with its technology partner CVMR, a modular mill is planned. It is intended to consolidate ore from several smaller deposits in the region and process it into marketable concentrate. Politically, the management team led by CEO David Mitchell is extremely well-connected. American Atomics is a member of the US Department of Energy's consortium for the nuclear fuel cycle and has a seat at the table when decisions about the future of nuclear power are made in Washington.

Trading remains thin, however, as the market has simply yet to discover the company. In Frankfurt, the stock is trading at EUR 0.09, which means it is even trading at a discount to the Canadian price. To retain the full 80% of the mining rights, at least USD 3.6 million must be raised annually through 2030. At the other end of the spectrum, however, that same amount seems like a rounding error. Amazon spends USD 3.6 million in less than ten minutes and could even pay for a complete takeover out of petty cash. Of course, that is not a realistic scenario—mining explorers are unlikely to be on the tech giant's shopping list. But it illustrates just how far apart the two ends of this spectrum are. At the top end, Wall Street trembles at the prospect of a billion-dollar bill. At the bottom, a company waits for the financial world to finally take notice of an investment story that could be crucial to the energy supply of the world's largest economy.