Nothing works without tungsten: Why the price surge continues and why SpaceX, Rheinmetall, and Almonty are in the spotlight

The Geopolitical Supply Shock

The tungsten market is currently characterized by an unprecedented imbalance between supply and demand, driven primarily by the People's Republic of China's trade policy realignment. For decades, the country served as the anchor of the global supply chain, controlling up to 83% of global mine production and over 70% of downstream processing capacity. The implementation of rigorous export controls by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in February 2025, which brought exports to strategic competitors to a standstill, triggered a massive supply shock. This structural shortage is forcing Western manufacturers to frantically search for alternative sources.

Rheinmetall: Democracy's arsenal needs materials

The Düsseldorf-based defense contractor Rheinmetall is one of the end users of tungsten frequently mentioned these days. The company is currently experiencing an unprecedented boom in orders, which, according to consensus estimates, is expected to grow its order backlog to EUR 135 billion by the end of 2026, driven by global rearmament. Tungsten is the main component in shaped-charge projectiles and so-called kinetic ammunition, which is used, among other things, by the Leopard 2 main battle tank. To effectively combat modern armored threats, Rheinmetall uses advanced tungsten alloys to manufacture long-rod penetrators based on extremely high density and hardness.

SpaceX: IPO Shifts Focus to Space Exploration and Fusion

While Rheinmetall focuses on traditional armaments, the US space company SpaceX represents the next wave of demand for tungsten. The company is currently preparing for an IPO that, according to industry analyses, could value the company at USD 1.5 to USD 1.75 trillion. The extreme thermal and mechanical stresses during the re-entry of the reusable Starship rockets into the atmosphere require materials with exceptional temperature resistance. Tungsten is used here in specialized heat-shielding areas, engine components, and as ballast weight, where maximum density is critical. An even more far-reaching aspect of this potential record-breaking IPO is SpaceX's hidden role in the commercialization of nuclear fusion energy. Reports increasingly identify the company as a systems integrator for compact fusion reactors from developers such as Helion Energy. In these reactors, particularly in tokamak designs, tungsten is the material of choice due to its thermal resistance of up to 1 megawatt per square meter and its extremely low sputtering rate.

Almonty Industries: The Western Stronghold of Supply

In light of rapidly growing tungsten demand, Almonty Industries has positioned itself as the leading player in the Western tungsten landscape. The company has relocated its headquarters to the US and converted its financial reporting to US standards to align closely with the interests of the US defense establishment. A key cornerstone of Almonty's business model is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which was reactivated after 30 years of inactivity and has been in operation since March. Once Phase 2 expansion is complete, the mine is expected to supply approximately 40% of all non-Chinese tungsten, thereby meeting NATO requirements. According to CEO Lewis Black, initial operational data significantly exceeds expectations, as higher ore grades are being mined and common impurities such as uranium or phosphorus are completely absent.

Strategic Expertise and ESG Compliance

To enhance compatibility with US military requirements, Almonty has strategically expanded its board with high-level military expertise in the form of General Gustave F. Perna. As CEO Lewis Black explains in an insightful interview with Radius Research, Almonty is one of only two Western companies worldwide with the technical expertise to achieve tungsten recovery rates exceeding 50%. This exclusive market position enables the producer to enter into binding off-take agreements with fixed price floors and to drive the industry's fundamental ESG transformation. Since Western end-users, such as the US defense industry, will be subject to a legal ban on the procurement of Chinese tungsten starting in 2027, the combination of ESG-compliant production and geopolitical reliability constitutes the decisive competitive advantage in the global battle for strategic resource sovereignty. Almonty has long been the go-to source for tungsten, a fact well known to corporations such as Rheinmetall and SpaceX.