Do Not Invest in Overheated Defense Stocks! DroneShield, Antimony Resources and MP Materials Show the Smarter Way

DroneShield: between operating tailwind and regulatory shadow

The drone-defense specialist's latest quarterly figures speak for themselves. Revenue came in at AUD 74.1 million, up 121%, marking the fourth consecutive profitable quarter. Operating cash flow of AUD 24.1 million shows that this growth is not being bought. With a pipeline of AUD 2.2 billion spread across 312 projects, and an already secured revenue backlog of AUD 161 million for 2026, demand is proving sustainable. The company is debt-free and holds AUD 223 million in cash and cash equivalents. That gives it enough headroom to fund the planned expansion of production capacity to AUD 2.4 billion by the end of 2026.

June's strategic wins are notable. These include contracts with the US Joint Interagency Task Force 401 and US Customs and Border Protection worth just under AUD 40 million combined, the start of production in Europe, and the partnership with Defenture for mobile defense systems. The first European manufacturing line, in particular, is key to participating in the EU's multi-billion-dollar defense programs. At the same time, the software share is growing. Recurring revenue jumped 205% in the first quarter and now makes up 13% of secured revenue. That is a major step toward a more stable, higher-margin business model.

Even so, the Australian financial regulator ASIC's investigation into market announcements from November 2025 weighs heavily on sentiment. On top of that comes the failed remuneration vote at the annual general meeting. Shareholders are signaling that they want more long-term orientation on executive pay. The recent leadership changes and reduced stakes held by major institutions add to the uncertainty. For investors who see structural demand for drone-defense technology as durable, the currently lower share price level offers an entry point, provided the regulatory clarifications in the second half of the year turn out positive. The share is currently trading at around AUD 2.65.

Antimony Resources: high grades and political tailwind

Antimony Resources' latest drill results from the Main Zone of the Bald Hill project provide solid grounds for optimism. With antimony grades up to 36% and widths exceeding 13 m, the mineralization is encountered at depths up to 240 m and shows remarkable continuity. The so-called scissor holes in particular, which cut through the system from different directions, confirm the body's spatial extent. The company has laid out the drill grid at a spacing of under 50 m. That should make the later resource estimate, prepared to international standards, considerably easier.

What truly sets the project apart from the competition, however, are the recently reported results from the south of the concession. In the newly identified South Zone, a winter trenching program uncovered an average of 19.5% antimony over a length of 200 m, with peak values beyond 44%. This confirms a mineralized system that extends well beyond the previously known boundaries. Compared with other North American projects, where antimony is usually only a byproduct of gold, this is a pure antimony deposit. That is a distinguishing feature of strategic value.

The recent visit by New Brunswick's Minister of Natural Resources to the site underscores the project's growing relevance for the region. The province has realigned its minerals strategy and sees antimony as a key building block for its economic future. Against the backdrop of global efforts to make supply chains less dependent on China, a politically stable project in North America gains additional appeal. The ongoing 19,000 m drill campaign will now show whether the promising near-surface results also hold up at depth. The groundwork for that has been laid. The share currently trades at around CAD 0.70.

MP Materials: between government contracts and market risks

Within a year, MP Materials has transformed from a pure raw-materials producer into the backbone of the US supply of critical minerals. The Pentagon secured a 15% stake in July 2025 and guaranteed a minimum price of USD 110 per kilogram of neodymium-praseodymium for a decade. This backstop gives the company a level of planning certainty unmatched in the industry. The upcoming halt on Chinese rare earths in US defense systems, starting in 2027, gives MP Materials additional tailwind. Demand from the defense industry will inevitably shift toward domestic producers in the future.

Production figures underscore the progress. In the first quarter of 2026, NdPr oxide production reached a new high of 917 t, while the Magnetics segment's revenue quadrupled year-on-year. The multi-billion-dollar build-out of the "10X" magnet campus in Texas is set to scale magnet production to 10,000 t per year from 2028. However, capital expenditure of up to USD 600 million this year is weighing on the operating margin. The renewed quarterly loss shows that the road to profitability remains rocky.

With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 200, the stock is undoubtedly ambitiously valued. The recent Chinese export restrictions against MP Materials are largely symbolic but underscore the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Analysts still see potential. The average price target of around USD 80 implies further upside. The key question remains whether the company can deliver on its ambitious expansion plans on schedule. For long-term investors, MP Materials offers leverage to the structural overhaul of Western supply chains. The share currently costs USD 60.88.

The security industry's structural realignment is underway. While classic armor-makers face valuation pressure, DroneShield, Antimony Resources and MP Materials show the other way. DroneShield impresses with debt-free growth and a billion-dollar pipeline in the drone-defense segment. Antimony Resources delivers proof of a North American project of strategic importance with spectacular antimony grades of up to 44%. MP Materials secures unique planning certainty for rare earths through its Pentagon stake. Tomorrow's winners are those that serve the defense supply chain of the future without producing weapons themselves.