Commodity Shortages Everywhere: Opportunities at B2Gold, Strategic Resources, and Lynas Rare Earths

B2Gold: Will This Stock Make Investors Happy?

B2Gold's rally continues. After the share jumped from under USD 4 to over USD 5 in a short period following strong quarterly results, it has now firmly broken through that level as well. The stock is currently trading at around USD 5.60. Analysts' price targets mostly range from USD 6.15 to 6.50. The research firm Raymond James considers a price of USD 7.50 possible.

Earnings forecasts also look positive. Due to the ramp-up of new mines such as Goose in Canada and expansion in Mali, analysts expect significant increases in net income for 2026 and 2027. The market consensus for full-year 2026 is around USD 0.50 per share. This puts the P/E ratio at just 10—a very low figure compared to the rest of the sector. A significant jump of more than 50% is also forecast for the coming year. The strong recovery in the gold price over the past few weeks provides an additional boost. Since forecasts for the gold price at the end of 2026 and for the coming year are mostly well above current levels, B2Gold appears extremely attractive from this perspective. Incidentally, its larger competitor, Endeavour Mining, might see it this way as well. With its strong cash flows, a takeover of B2Gold cannot be ruled out. This market rumor, which has already been picked up by analysts, certainly represents a realistic scenario.

B2Gold's management is staying the course. By developing the Goose Mine in Canada, the company is reducing risk. After all, with Mali, the company already has a significant country risk in its portfolio. Investors who anticipate rising gold prices over the long term and are not deterred by B2Gold's country risk could find the stock an attractive investment.

Strategic Resources: Beneficiary of Geopolitics

The US-led trade war against China, EU countries, and other nations is causing turmoil across many industries. In the current copper rally, for example, the market is pricing in new US tariffs that could drive up prices, particularly in the US. More broadly, the US under Trump remains highly protectionist. For everyone else, this also means that in the commodities market, countries should make every effort to find their own suppliers and secure supplies for their domestic industries. Countries such as China have been doing this for a long time. Now Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the UK, and Canada are also on the hunt. Efforts are intensifying not only to secure critical raw materials such as rare earths and tungsten, but also in many other areas. In steel, for example, tariffs and disputes have long been a feature of the market.

Strategic Resources could be one of the beneficiaries of this geopolitical situation. The Canadian company is developing the BlackRock project in Québec, where it plans to mine high-purity iron. In addition to processing the material, which is a vanadium-titanium-magnetite (VTM) ore, the company intends to use it to produce iron pellets in the next stage of processing. The target output here is 4 million metric tonnes per year. And it is precisely these direct reduction grade pellets that are indispensable for electric arc furnaces in the steel industry—for example, to produce green steel. And the prices for these pellets are higher than those for conventional material.

The company benefits directly from the US tariff war and the sector's protectionist environment. For instance, US special tariffs on crude steel are strengthening North American supply chains. Because of these stringent requirements, US steel mills must source raw materials and feedstock from USMCA-compliant regions such as the US or Canada, where Strategic Resources' deposits are also located. The tariffs generally lead to higher domestic US prices, which also positively affect raw-material margins. Industry representatives expect US steel producers to sell end products domestically at significantly higher prices and are therefore willing to pay a premium for high-grade domestic raw materials such as iron ore concentrate, vanadium, and direct reduction iron.

With its unique deposit, Strategic Resources also holds a trump card. In addition to high-purity iron, the site also contains vanadium and titanium. Both metals appear on numerous lists of critical raw materials, as well as on the US Department of Defense's watch list. The trade dispute is currently accelerating the permitting process for North American mining sites in order to reduce dependence on China and Russia for specialty alloys used in the defence and steel industries. This should also benefit Strategic Resources.

The company currently has a market capitalization of just CAD 14 million. This micro-cap stock has been trading sideways for months. Good news could quickly drive the price back up to higher levels.

Lynas Rare Earths: Record Highs and Speculation

Lynas Rare Earths is the largest producer of rare earths outside of China. Consequently, the company is currently of great importance to the Western world. This is because Beijing is not currently supplying enough material to meet global demand. This is a direct consequence of the United States' sanctions resulting from the trade war.

The management's most recent statements to investors therefore drew particular attention. The company confirmed that it had held takeover talks with a potential buyer earlier this year. However, these were broken off due to the high level of uncertainty. It is unlikely to involve a Chinese bidder, as the Australian government would have to approve such a deal. Nevertheless, market speculation is now widespread. It likely was not a small company, as Lynas is now valued at around AUD 15 billion on the stock market. Given its high cash reserves (around AUD 1.2 billion) and strategic value, management is likely to demand a high takeover premium.

Nevertheless, speculation continues. And online and in forums, Hancock Prospecting—the vehicle of Lynas' major shareholder, Gina Rinehart—is clearly the favorite. Australia's richest woman could therefore be aiming for a direct takeover or pushing for a merger with the US-based MP Materials, in which she also holds an 8% stake. In addition, as is customary, the mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto are being mentioned, as they themselves intend to focus more heavily on critical minerals. Last but not least, it could also be a US consortium backed by Washington.

In any case, these speculations boosted the stock. Operationally, everything is running like clockwork. In the fourth quarter (ending in June), Lynas Rare Earths reported record revenue and sales prices. Revenue rose by 70% to AUD 288.9 million. The average sales price reached a record high of AUD 98 per kg. Bottom line, the Australian company earned AUD 222.35 million.

More broadly, the market is currently pricing in a substantial geopolitical premium for Lynas. However, an acquisition by a US consortium cannot be ruled out, as the United States is aggressively seeking sources of rare earths to reduce its dependence on China. Such an offer would not necessarily have to be friendly, either.

B2Gold is one of the most undervalued gold producers on the market, but it is heavily dependent on political stability in West Africa. With Strategic Resources, investors are betting on the US's aggressive trade policy. Lynas Rare Earths is highly valued but also clearly in high demand.