Boom in the Oil Market: How TotalEnergies, Zefiro Methane, and Shell Are Benefiting!

TotalEnergies: The National Champion is Booming!

Unlike Germany, France has a true oil champion in its ranks in the form of TotalEnergies. The Paris-based company is one of the ten largest private oil producers in the world. In the first quarter, the high oil prices resulting from the Gulf war were already making their mark on the books. Net profit rose 51% year over year to approximately EUR 4.96 billion. This put Total slightly above analysts' consensus estimates. Subsequently, analysts confirmed their "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings for the stock and continue to recommend buying it. The company's board of directors has therefore set the first-quarter dividend at EUR 0.90 per share. This represents an increase of just under 6% compared to the same period last year. Extrapolating the dividend to a full-year basis yields a current dividend yield of approximately 4.4%. In addition, there is an extensive share buyback program. The EUR 750 million volume launched in January has been doubled to EUR 1.5 billion. Management expects continuous production and cash flow growth of around 4% per year for the second half of the year and beyond.

High Dividend Yield, But…

The high dividend yield is remarkable, as Total's stock—like many major oil stocks—had already surged massively in the pre-war period. It has soared by more than 30% since the start of the year. Since the start of hostilities, however, the stock has fluctuated wildly in response to news developments and the oil price. Up when the bombs fall; down when the doves of peace sing! Anyone who has not jumped on the bandwagon yet should keep two things in mind. First, the question arises: how long will oil prices remain at this high level? Analysts assume that even if the war were to end immediately and the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, oil prices and oil products would remain at high levels. There is also a debate in France regarding a windfall tax (taxe sur les superprofits). The massive jump in profits has led the opposition, in particular, to call for a targeted skimming of returns. CEO Patrick Pouyanné opposes this, arguing that additional tax burdens would jeopardize the voluntary price caps at French gas stations. Now the CEO must testify before the National Assembly's Finance Committee in June.

Zefiro Methane: The Cleanup Specialist in the Oil and Gas Industry

While major oil companies generally ensure that oil and gas wells are properly sealed when production ends, this is not the case for many, particularly smaller companies in North America. After more than 150 years in the oil and gas industry, decommissioned or abandoned wells can be found across the United States. Some operators took care of them, others went bankrupt, and in many places, the plugging was inadequate. The result: methane, an extremely harmful climate pollutant, is escaping.

Huge Market Awaits Problem Solvers

Zefiro Methane has focused precisely on this issue. And a massive market awaits. Estimates suggest that there are around 2.2 million abandoned oil and gas wells in the US alone. According to the company, this corresponds to a market size of USD 400 billion and up. In the United States, state regulators have now also become aware of this problem and have allocated corresponding budgets for the closure of these methane sources. The total amount is approximately USD 4.7 billion. Zefiro is in a prime position to win as many government projects as possible. So far, the success rate looks promising. The company has won about a quarter of all contracts put out to bid by the states, and is currently active in 13 states. Over the past 12 months, Zefiro Methane has already plugged 413 wells. Its strong regional presence was recently expanded through the acquisition of a heavy machinery fleet valued at USD 4.3 million from Viking Well Service.

This growth is now reflected in the stock price and revenue. In Q3 2026 (fiscal year), the company reported revenue of approximately USD 11 million. Since the company is growing faster than its costs, expenses declined by 14%. This has also improved profit margins. Over the nine-month period, EBITDA rose to USD 4.25 million. In addition, Zefiro reduced its debt by a third to USD 8.2 million.

The stock has nearly quadrupled since its low at the end of 2025. This performance reflects not only the company's operational development but also its future potential. The acquisition allows management to grow faster while also leveraging synergies. Last but not least, the sale of emission credits is also an option for the Canadians. After all, plugging abandoned and orphaned oil and gas wells prevents climate-damaging emissions. Should Zefiro be able to grow to a substantial size in the coming years, the company will become an attractive potential acquisition target for oilfield service providers.

Shell: Light and Shadow

The Dutch-British Shell Group made headlines across Europe in the last week of April. Frans Everts, head of Shell's Dutch operations, personally guided journalists on-site at the Rotterdam-Pernis refinery complex, Europe's largest refinery. What he said is likely to have made quite a few politicians and citizens nervous. Everts described the situation on the European market for aviation fuels (kerosene/jet fuel) as dramatic. Europe had lost its most important source of imports due to the blockade in the Middle East. "Quite clearly, every single refinery in Europe is in what we call 'Max Jet Mode'," said Everts. And his boss, Shell CEO Wael Sawan, made an even more dramatic statement shortly thereafter during the presentation of the Q1 figures. He warned of a global crude oil shortage of nearly one billion barrels, and said this gap "is getting deeper every day." Furthermore, according to Sawan, European airlines have already had to cut their consumption by around 5% due to extreme prices—a clear sign that demand is declining here.

The strategic situation at Shell looks more mixed than at Total. This is because the group benefits from high oil prices on the one hand, but is itself affected by the war on the other. For instance, restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz would affect around 20% of the group's total hydrocarbon production. Additionally, there were outages at the LNG facilities in Qatar and damage to the Pearl GTL plant, the repair of which will take about a year.

On the other hand, adjusted profit climbed by about 23% year-over-year to USD 6.9 billion. This put Shell well above analysts' expectations. The main driver here is the strong performance in the refining business, which is operating at 99% capacity. Shell also performed well in product and commodity trading. Shell raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to USD 0.3906 per share and approved a USD 3 billion share buyback program. The high prices appear to be offsetting the problems at the LNG facilities in the Middle East. Shell has also acquired ARC Resources from Canada. For approximately USD 4 billion (75% in stock), the company is securing a first-class natural gas and liquefied natural gas reserve in Canada's Montney region. The aim is to massively expand the LNG business. Until the start of the war, Shell's stock had performed similarly to Total's. Since then, however, it has underperformed. Furthermore, as is often the case in the stock market, the acquisition was not initially well-received by investors. Additionally, the dividend yield of around 3.6% is lower than Total's.

With TotalEnergies stock, investors can currently benefit from high oil prices. Furthermore, the French company consistently pays dividends and repurchases shares. Those who believe energy prices will remain persistently high may consider adding it to their portfolio. Zefiro Methane is also a potential candidate for inclusion. The Canadian company has recently performed strongly, and this growth is also reflected in the stock. There is significant medium- to long-term potential here. With Shell, on the other hand, there are both positives and negatives for shareholders. Rising profits and high dividends are offset by problems in the Middle East, where the company is directly affected by the war. Investors who prefer to avoid risk should stay away, especially given the risk of another war breaking out.