Billions from Washington and Brussels: Almonty Industries, Aurubis and MP Materials Are Benefiting from the Boom

Almonty Industries: With Political Tailwind

The recent US decision to ban the export of tungsten waste and scrap without a licence underscores the metal's growing strategic importance. Whilst Washington is primarily seeking to prevent direct shipments to China, Almonty Industries is taking centre stage as one of the few Western primary producers. The start of processing at the Sangdong mine in South Korea in July marks the decisive step from the development phase to the operational phase. With just under 140,000 tonnes of ore in stock and a gross value of around USD 68 million at current prices, the company is ideally positioned to benefit from the ongoing supply shortage.

The quarterly figures underscore this operational progress. Revenue rose by 498% to CAD 43.0 million, the gross margin reached 60.7% and adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss of CAD 4.8 million to a profit of CAD 17.6 million. These figures include a negligible contribution from Sangdong. This is merely a foretaste of what will be possible once Sangdong comes on stream. The USD 800 million senior notes offering placed in June injected a significant amount of cash into the company's coffers. Together with existing cash reserves, this resulted in a cash position of CAD 1.2 billion at the end of the quarter. Up to USD 300 million of the new capital is earmarked for share buy-backs, as management considers the share price as at mid-August to be too low.

Under the extended offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP), around 90% of Sangdong's Phase 1 production has been sold over 21 years. GTP is securing 40% more tungsten whilst paying higher prices. This long-term commitment to a major Western processor significantly reduces sales risk. At the same time, Almonty is pushing ahead with the Phase 2 expansion, which is set to double capacity, as well as the planned tungsten oxide plant, in order to extend the value chain. With projects in South Korea, Portugal and the US, the company enjoys geographical diversification that makes it a key pillar of Western supply. The funding to drive these projects forward is also in place.

Aurubis: Strong Demand, but Patience Is Also Required

The Hamburg-based copper smelter Aurubis is experiencing an eventful year on the stock market in 2026. On the one hand, its operations are benefiting from high metal prices and exceptional demand for sulphuric acid. On the other hand, delays to an expansion project in the US are dampening the euphoria. The figures for the first nine months of the 2025/26 financial year were very respectable. Operating EBT climbed by 31% to EUR 374 million, whilst EBITDA rose to EUR 570 million. The third quarter in particular stood out, with an operating profit before tax of EUR 149 million. This represents a significant increase compared with the previous quarter, which saw "only" EUR 121 million. Higher copper and precious metal prices, as well as a significant rise in revenue from the sulphuric acid business, underpinned this development. Management now expects the full-year result to be at the upper end of the forecast range of EUR 425 to 525 million.

Around 90% of the EUR 1.7 billion investment program has been completed. The EUR 190 million plant in Hamburg, which came on stream in July, combines several smelting processes in a single unit for the first time and will be able to process over 30,000 t of additional recycled material annually in future. The capacity expansion in Bulgaria is nearing completion. Only the delays at the Richmond project in the US are clouding the picture. Full ramp-up has been postponed by around 6 months; phase 1 is now expected in 2026/27 and phase 2 in 2027/28. Analysts describe this as a disappointment, although they note that it has already been priced in.

Copper prices reached a record high in June 2026, fuelled by the AI boom and electromobility. Sulphuric acid prices also rose significantly, offsetting falling smelting and refining fees. Analysts are divided. Warburg Research lowered its price target marginally from EUR 212 to 211, but maintains its "Buy" rating. DZ Bank reduced its fair value from EUR 180 to EUR 173 and recommends "Hold". UBS sees little short-term upside potential at EUR 160. Aurubis's operational performance is solid, though investors will need patience whilst the US expansion ramps up.

MP Materials: making operational progress

MP Materials' second-quarter figures show a company in transition. NdPr production rose by 41% to 840 t, while sales volume actually increased by 127% to 1,006 t. The Materials segment posted an adjusted EBITDA of USD 32.5 million, a significant improvement on the previous year's loss. At the same time, the Group remains in the red, with a GAAP loss of USD 20.3 million. The expansion of magnet production and the 10X Facility continue to consume substantial funds, with operating cash flow of just USD 4.9 million in the first half of the year, whilst capital expenditure totalled around USD 308 million.

The US Department of Defense has secured future revenues with a minimum price of USD 110 per kilogram for NdPr over 10 years. The offtake agreement for the 10X Facility guarantees at least USD 140 million in annual EBITDA once it becomes operational. In addition, a newly concluded gadolinium supply contract has been signed with a leading US aerospace and defence company, worth hundreds of millions and running over several years. Project Swarm also consolidates demand from the drone industry. Management expects NdPr production of over 1,000 t in the third quarter and the first commercial magnet deliveries in the fourth quarter.

The share valuation remains the critical issue. If one considers the individual business segments, Materials and Magnetics, using generous multiples and a discount rate of 12%, the fair value lies well below the current share price of USD 56.13. The current share price tends to price in an EBITDA of around USD 1 billion. This is well above management's expectation of USD 650 million. Market expectations are based not only on successful implementation, but also on the company's ability to scale up further. As an investor, one should be mindful of the potential for dilution from preference shares and warrants.

Subsidies from Washington and Brussels are having an impact. Almonty Industries is capitalizing on the political tailwind and holds the largest tungsten asset outside China, the Sangdong mine, as its trump card. Aurubis is delivering solid operating figures, but the delayed ramp-up in the US is dampening short-term euphoria. MP Materials is shining with strategic supply contracts from the Pentagon and progress in magnet manufacturing, whilst its valuation already prices in a perfect future. The stock markets are celebrating the commodities boom, but success is by no means a foregone conclusion.