Almonty Industries Surges, Novo Nordisk and PayPal Correct: Where Are the Entry Points?

Almonty Industries – Why analysts are now readjusting

US investment bank DA Davidson recently raised its price target for Almonty Industries sharply from USD 12 to USD 18. The reason is as clear as it gets: the market has fundamentally changed. Analysts are responding to massive price increases for tungsten, a metal that is indispensable for defense and high-tech. According to data from Fastmarkets, average spot prices have more than doubled recently. This movement is not a short-term jump, but reflects a continuing supply shortage coupled with strong demand, a perfect environment for manufacturing companies such as Almonty.

The increased price target is based not only on commodity prices but also on concrete operational progress. Almonty's flagship project, the Sangdong mine in South Korea, has made the transition from construction to production. Commissioning is underway, with commercial production expected in the first quarter of 2026. This positions the company as the largest tungsten producer outside China in a market that is becoming increasingly fragmented due to export restrictions imposed by the Asian giant.

Almonty's strength lies in its strategic orientation. The company is building a fully integrated supply chain in politically stable regions that is supported by the US and its allies. This is reflected in long-term purchase agreements, for example for the US defense industry. Supported by a solid balance sheet, well-covered short-term liabilities, and an experienced management team, recently strengthened with logistics and security expertise, Almonty has the tools to benefit from this structural market shift. The share is currently trading at USD 13.36.

Novo Nordisk – Between pioneering achievements and price pressure

The 2025 financial year presents a mixed picture for Novo Nordisk. The Danish pharmaceutical giant recorded a 10% increase in sales, but operating profit grew only half as fast. This phase of decoupling marks a noticeable turning point. Previously, the company experienced unprecedented expansion and rose to become the market leader in the diabetes and obesity sector. Since 2019, revenue and profits have more than doubled, an impressive development. However, the figures also show the first signs of fatigue: the gross margin shrank to around 81%, driven by higher costs and initial price adjustments.

But the outlook for the future is optimistic, as there are still strong growth drivers. The new Wegovy pill is an absolute hit. Its launch was exceptionally successful. In the first few weeks alone, around 50,000 prescriptions were filled each week, more than twice as many as for comparable predecessor products. What is particularly exciting is that the majority of patients are being treated for the first time. This means that it is not just a battle for market share, but that the market itself is being significantly expanded. The oral formula could also reach patients who reject injections, thereby increasing the overall market volume. In addition, the pipeline with candidates such as CagriSema and Zenagamtide provides solid clinical data that secures the portfolio in the long term.

However, the outlook for the current year is bleak. Management expects a 5-13% decline in revenue and profits. The reasons for this are significant price pressure in the US due to government discount agreements, the impending loss of patent protection for semaglutide in some markets, and fierce competition. In response, the group is focusing entirely on volume growth and pushing ahead with its restructuring. Investors must weigh up whether the short-term slump in profits will be more than offset in the long term by the aggressive volume strategy and strong market position. The share is currently trading at EUR 40.065.

PayPal – A fresh start with legacy issues

PayPal's latest figures read like a summary of ongoing problems. In the fourth quarter, revenue grew by a meager 3%. Particularly worrying is that the core business, the "Branded Checkout" solution, continued to lose momentum and grew by only 1%. Management responded with a surprising change at the top. The new CEO, Enrique Lores, will take over in March at a company that, despite a huge user network of 439 million accounts, has noticeably lost competitiveness. The disappointing forecast for 2026, which even predicts a decline in profit margins, underscores the urgency of the turnaround.

Nevertheless, the balance sheet offers some anchors for optimists. The payment service provider is anything but bankrupt. Free cash flow remains robust at over USD 2 billion per quarter. In addition, share buybacks totaling USD 6 billion are planned for the current year, which can be seen as a positive sign for shareholders. Furthermore, there are still areas of growth. Venmo significantly increased its revenue, and the "Buy Now, Pay Later" segment also grew strongly. These solid fundamentals give the new management time to make strategic adjustments.

However, the key question for investors is whether these strengths outweigh the structural weaknesses. The strategic direction seems unclear. Should growth focus more on merchants or consumers? The market demands a clear, comprehensible plan after previous promises were not kept. Disillusionment runs deep, and the new CEO must first regain trust. To get started, concrete evidence is needed that the newly defined priorities will also lead to better results. Currently, a share costs USD 41.03.

Current price movements reveal a fundamental divide: the market now rewards companies that follow structural megatrends and punishes those with short-term weaknesses. As a tungsten producer, Almonty Industries benefits directly from geopolitical tensions and the strategic hunt for raw materials. As a pharmaceutical giant, Novo Nordisk is struggling with acute price pressure and an expected slump in profits despite its strong market position. As a payment service provider with a large user base, PayPal must first prove that its restart under a new CEO will be successful.