50% upside potential – And what lies beyond? Almonty, Hensoldt, and MP Materials

US analysts praise Almonty: Price targets at USD 7

Following its Nasdaq listing in July, the investment story surrounding Almonty is now also making waves in the US. The two renowned research firms, Oppenheimer & Co. and D.A. Davidson & Co. have recently started covering the stock. The medium-term price target is USD 7. Based on current prices, this represents upside potential of around 50%. But why do analysts see potential? Both analysts emphasize that Almonty is the only tungsten producer in the US and should therefore benefit significantly from geopolitical developments. Almonty's projects are either already in production or very advanced, and tungsten is essential for defense and industry. From 2027, Almonty could account for around 40% of tungsten produced outside China. Further arguments put forward by analysts in favor of Almonty: There are significant barriers to entry in the tungsten market. Not only is tungsten particularly complex to mine and process, but it also takes potential competitors at least 7 to 10 years to bring comparable projects into production.

Almonty: Ideally positioned for good business with the US and Europe

And even then, it remains unclear whether Almonty, which has calculated significantly lower production costs for its Sangdong mine in South Korea than those typically seen in state-subsidized Chinese mines, can be put under pressure at all. Moreover, setting up new mining projects is complex and challenging. Almonty has already completed much of this groundwork in recent years and now has a team capable of transferring this knowledge to new properties. While Almonty's close ties to US authorities and industry remain a key focus—and observers continue to speculate about a potential Pentagon-backed investment, similar to what occurred recently with US rare earths producer MP Materials - CEO Lewis Black has consistently demonstrated openness to partnerships and collaborations across all regions. Such partnerships are particularly conceivable in Europe, where Almonty already has strong partners in the Plansee Group, Deutsche Rohstoff AG, and the German development bank KfW. In addition to the Portuguese Panasqueira mine, which has been in production for 136 years and produces such high-grade concentrates that Almonty is able to achieve above-market prices, the Company also holds two projects in Spain that could potentially move into production.

If Almonty succeeds in bringing additional mines into operation following the planned start of operations at Sangdong later this year, current analyst expectations may prove conservative. The remarkable consistency across forecasts further underscores the credibility and relevance of the price targets. Oppenheimer expects revenues of between USD 45 million and USD 409 million between 2025 and 2028, with EBITDA ranging from USD 1.7 million to USD 243 million. D.A. Davidson puts the figures at between USD 39 million and USD 262 million in revenues and between USD 14 million and USD 262 million in EBITDA.

Tungsten price already up 50% in 2025 – This heavy metal is indispensable everywhere

The fact that demand will be high enough in the long term to absorb a larger supply of tungsten from secure legal jurisdictions is demonstrated by the current price trend for tungsten: Since the beginning of 2025, the price of tungsten has risen by around 50% to USD 500/MTU. In addition, higher NATO defense spending will only have an impact on demand in the coming years. The NATO members' 5% target is catapulting investment in the sector into a realm that was unthinkable just a few years ago. Tungsten is a key raw material for defense: bunker-busting bombs, armor-piercing ammunition, the F-35 fighter jet, the M1 Abrams tank, hypersonic weapons, air defense weapons, and even high-tech defense equipment such as radar and optronics manufactured by the German company Hensoldt – without tungsten, these products would be unthinkable.

Almonty shares: Good starting position for positive surprises

Following its listing on the Nasdaq and the successful capital measure that brought Almonty USD 90 million from institutional investors to build a processing plant for the Sangdong mine, the market is once again focusing on the Company's long-term prospects. Considering Almonty's projects, expertise, and market position, it is clear that analysts' current price targets can only be a snapshot of the current situation. Founded in 2011 by current CEO and tungsten expert Lewis Black, Almonty Industries is perfectly positioned to deliver additional growth in the medium and long term. The two most recent analyses by Oppenheimer & Co. and D.A. Davidson & Co., with a price target of USD 7, underscore Almonty's promising prospects.

Documentation about Almonty's Panasqueira mine: