40% Gains Still Not Enough? Almonty Industries, RENK and Verbio

Almonty Industries: The US is Getting Serious About Tungsten

Following a rally of more than 40% in a month, Almonty Industries' shares are currently taking a short breather. This is unlikely to last long. For one thing, analysts see significant upside potential for the leading Western tungsten producer. Most recently, GBC Research raised its price target from USD 20.89 to USD 30 (or EUR 25.87). Almonty shares are currently trading at just over USD 17.

Secondly, tungsten is once again coming more firmly into the public spotlight as a strategic raw material. At the end of August, an export ban on tungsten scrap and certain types of battery waste came into force in the US. The measure is intended to keep critical raw materials within the country and strengthen domestic supply. The US has not mined its own tungsten for years. China dominates global production and processing, and Beijing has long used export controls on tungsten as a strategic weapon. Furthermore, there have been repeated reports in recent months suggesting that China is buying up tungsten scrap in the US and Europe. The US now intends to prevent this with immediate effect.

Almonty CEO Lewis Black repeatedly points out that tungsten is no longer relevant solely for traditional defence applications such as armour-piercing ammunition or missile components. The metal also plays an important role in the semiconductor industry and the space sector. The combination of defence, semiconductors and artificial intelligence is making a secure supply an increasingly important industrial and security policy priority for Western nations.

For Almonty, this development comes at an opportune time. Production at the Sangdong mine in South Korea is currently being ramped up and is set for further expansion. The facility is designed for a processing capacity of around 640,000 tonnes of ore per year and a production output of approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. This should likely make Sangdong the most important tungsten project outside China. While politicians and industry seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese supply chains, Almonty increasingly possesses precisely what the West is looking for: a genuine, scalable and geopolitically attractive tungsten production facility. In addition, Almonty is also further developing the mine in Portugal and is set to become the first tungsten producer in the US after many years. Moreover, its coffers are well-stocked for acquisitions.

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Renk Expands Production

Is the rally in Renk already over? After the defence stock had lost significant ground in the first half of the year, it did at least rise from EUR 43 to EUR 52 within a few weeks from mid-July. However, the share price has since slipped back down to EUR 44. This comes despite recent "Buy" recommendations from JPMorgan, Barclays, Warburg and Deutsche Bank. The price targets range up to EUR 75.

Operationally, at any rate, things are running smoothly at Renk. To drive further growth, the gearbox specialist is significantly expanding its production capacity. At its main plant in Augsburg, gearbox production is set to rise to more than 2,000 units per year by 2030. This would represent a threefold increase. The new concept developed for this purpose has been gradually rolled out across the entire production network since 2025. Another milestone is the commissioning of three new machining centres at the Rheine plant. Capacity there has been growing by more than 30% annually since 2025. By 2030, Renk will have invested more than EUR 20 million in the site.

In future, components for the HSWL 256 gearbox will be manufactured in Rheine. This is used, amongst other things, in the Puma armoured personnel carrier. The expansion is part of the "Made for Germany" initiative, under which Renk plans to invest up to EUR 325 million in Germany by 2028 in digitalization, innovation and additional production capacity. With this increased supply capacity, the group aims to support the modernization of the Bundeswehr and allied armed forces, as well as the implementation of the new NATO capability targets.

Verbio: Analysts are Bullish

Although not as strong as Almonty, Verbio's share price has nevertheless performed remarkably well this year. In 2026 alone, the share price has risen by a solid 33%. Over the past 52 weeks, it has even climbed by almost 190%.

Verbio shares are currently trading at around EUR 30. NuWays even puts the fair value at EUR 41 and has initiated coverage with a "Buy" recommendation. The basis for this optimism is primarily the expected normalized free cash flow (FCF) in the coming years. For 2027/28, analysts anticipate an FCF of EUR 114 million, and for 2028/29, around EUR 201 million. At the same time, the analysts believe that the current market capitalization does not yet fully reflect the normalization of the GHG quota market, the new production capacities and the potential offered by renewable chemicals. NuWays cites the final annual figures at the end of September and the Capital Markets Day in early October as short-term drivers for the share price.

NuWays believes that, after 2 challenging years, Verbio is at the start of a structural turnaround in earnings. The main factors weighing on results recently have been disruptions in the German GHG quota market, weak bioethanol margins and the ramp-up of US operations. In the 2025/26 financial year, preliminary EBITDA reached EUR 192 million, up from just EUR 14 million in the previous year. Adjusted for a one-off effect of around EUR 20 million, operating EBITDA stood at approximately EUR 172 million. The main drivers were the normalization of German GHG allowance prices, improved bioethanol spreads in Europe and higher production volumes in the US. The integrated bioethanol/biomethane business remains particularly attractive, as it combines multiple revenue streams and can also benefit from the monetization of CO₂ savings.

Analysts believe that Verbio is now transitioning from an investment-driven phase to a monetization-driven one. The majority of the extensive investment program has been completed, so rising capacity utilization and additional revenue should have a greater impact on earnings and cash flow. NuWays sees particular opportunities in the ramp-up of the site in Nevada. This is to be gradually converted to integrated ethanol/RNG production. In addition, the production of renewable chemicals is to be expanded. Around 0.66 million tonnes of accumulated GHG allowances from 2024 hold additional value. Assuming a price of EUR 400 per tonne, NuWays estimates net cash inflows of around EUR 227 million, likely to be realised primarily in the financial years 2027/28 and 2028/29.

There appears to be further upside potential for Almonty Industries. Tungsten remains a critical raw material and is urgently needed not only in the US, but also for applications such as ammunition, semiconductors and space exploration. Following the export ban on tungsten scrap, the import ban on tungsten from China, amongst other countries, is likely to cause a stir around the turn of the year. Almonty is likely to continue to benefit. Verbio's US expansion appears to be a success. Based on analysts' estimates, the share does not appear to be overpriced. As for Renk, there is currently no compelling reason to buy the stock.