January 12th, 2026 | 07:15 CET
The USD 200 billion poker game: Why a merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto could pave the way for Pasinex Resources
The 2026 stock market year began with a rumor that could shake the foundations of the global commodities industry. In trading rooms from London to Toronto, there were increasing signs that industry giants Rio Tinto and Glencore were once again considering a merger. It would be a historic mega-merger, creating a hegemony with an estimated value of USD 200 billion. Initial exploratory talks between the two companies have now been confirmed. But while analysts are still discussing the antitrust hurdles, the "smart money" is already looking to the second tier. After all, such a mega-merger would have one primary goal: absolute control over the critical metals of the energy transition, above all, copper and zinc. In the shadow of these giants, flexible, high-grade players such as Pasinex Resources are emerging as the real winners, as they deliver precisely the agility and production quality that the cumbersome large corporations lack.
time to read: 3 minutes
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Author:
Nico Popp
ISIN:
GLENCORE PLC DL -_01 | JE00B4T3BW64 , RIO TINTO LTD | AU000000RIO1 , PASINEX RESOURCES LTD. | CA70260R1082
Table of contents:
Author
Nico Popp
At home in Southern Germany, the passionate stock exchange expert has been accompanying the capital markets for about twenty years. With a soft spot for smaller companies, he is constantly on the lookout for exciting investment stories.
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The logic of the giants: Synergies in a world of scarcity
For Glencore and Rio Tinto, the idea of a merger follows compelling industrial logic. Commodity markets are characterized by structural deficits driven by the unstoppable expansion of renewable energy and the electrification of mobility. By merging, the two companies could leverage massive synergies, optimize their logistics chains, and dramatically increase their market power in pricing base metals. But size is not only an advantage in the modern mining world. Developing new, gigantic deposits often takes decades and costs billions.
This is precisely where the strategic dilemma arises: the giants need immediate access to high-quality resources to close the gap between declining supply and exploding demand. They are dependent on "satellite projects" that are quickly scalable and deliver cash flow without the bureaucratic complexity of a mega-project. This is particularly true in the zinc market, where industry observers believe the supply situation could remain challenging.
Turkey as a new hotspot: Pasinex leverages its location advantage
In this environment, Turkey is emerging as a strategic hub, and with it, Pasinex Resources. The country has recognized that it can play a key role in the global race for raw materials. As the legal experts at Esin Attorney Partnership point out in their analysis, the Turkish government has made significant changes to mining legislation with the "Super Permit" regulation to drastically speed up approval procedures and facilitate investment. This regulatory offensive is transforming Turkey into one of the most attractive mining locations in the world.
Pasinex Resources is already well-positioned here. The Company operates the Pinargozu mine, which is known for its extremely high-grade zinc deposits. Analyses by Minespider confirm that Turkey and Central Asia are emerging as a global mining hub, with Pasinex enjoying a clear "first-mover advantage" thanks to its established infrastructure and the geological quality of its CRD deposits (known as carbonate replacement deposits). While Rio Tinto and Glencore need years to get new projects through the committees, Pasinex can act flexibly in this investor-friendly climate and adjust production to market prices.
Valuation gap and investment case
For investors, this constellation presents a classic arbitrage opportunity. While the valuations of mega-caps already include a lot of advance praise, junior producers are often overlooked. Data from Alpha Spread shows that companies in the zinc sector are currently attractively valued compared to their historical EV/EBITDA ratio, which is particularly true for profitable niche players. Pasinex Resources stands out here because the Company not only explores but has already proven that it can profitably mine zinc and respond flexibly to different market conditions thanks to the high grades of its projects.
Discovery Alert's report on "Junior Mining Stocks Undervaluation" emphasizes that investors have the opportunity in 2026 to invest in operational substance before the potential wave of large acquisitions drives up valuations. Should Glencore and Rio Tinto actually merge – or even go on a shopping spree individually – projects with the quality and location of Pasinex will automatically become sought-after takeover targets. Pasinex's stock is thus much more than a bet on the price of zinc. It is a strategic option on the realignment of global commodity supply, where agile, high-grade projects are the most valuable currency. Last year, Pasinex shares already generated attractive returns for shareholders with these key figures. However, the small producer still has to be considered relatively unknown. Such a prime asset in the zinc sector, which has also proven in the past that it can operate successfully even when zinc prices fluctuate, is likely to be even more in demand in the future than it is today.
Conflict of interest
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