The USD 200 billion poker game: Why a merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto could pave the way for Pasinex Resources

The logic of the giants: Synergies in a world of scarcity

For Glencore and Rio Tinto, the idea of a merger follows compelling industrial logic. Commodity markets are characterized by structural deficits driven by the unstoppable expansion of renewable energy and the electrification of mobility. By merging, the two companies could leverage massive synergies, optimize their logistics chains, and dramatically increase their market power in pricing base metals. But size is not only an advantage in the modern mining world. Developing new, gigantic deposits often takes decades and costs billions.

This is precisely where the strategic dilemma arises: the giants need immediate access to high-quality resources to close the gap between declining supply and exploding demand. They are dependent on "satellite projects" that are quickly scalable and deliver cash flow without the bureaucratic complexity of a mega-project. This is particularly true in the zinc market, where industry observers believe the supply situation could remain challenging.

Turkey as a new hotspot: Pasinex leverages its location advantage

In this environment, Turkey is emerging as a strategic hub, and with it, Pasinex Resources. The country has recognized that it can play a key role in the global race for raw materials. As the legal experts at Esin Attorney Partnership point out in their analysis, the Turkish government has made significant changes to mining legislation with the "Super Permit" regulation to drastically speed up approval procedures and facilitate investment. This regulatory offensive is transforming Turkey into one of the most attractive mining locations in the world.

Pasinex Resources is already well-positioned here. The Company operates the Pinargozu mine, a joint venture known for its extremely high-grade zinc deposits. Analyses by Minespider confirm that Turkey and Central Asia are emerging as a global mining hub, with Pasinex enjoying a clear "first-mover advantage" thanks to its established infrastructure and the geological quality of its CRD deposits (known as carbonate replacement deposits). While Rio Tinto and Glencore need years to get new projects through the committees, Pasinex can act flexibly in this investor-friendly climate and adjust production to market prices.

Valuation gap and investment case

For investors, this constellation presents a classic arbitrage opportunity. While the valuations of mega-caps already include a lot of advance praise, junior producers are often overlooked. Data from Alpha Spread shows that companies in the zinc sector are currently attractively valued compared to their historical EV/EBITDA ratio, which is particularly true for profitable niche players. Pasinex Resources stands out here because the Company not only explores but has already proven that it can profitably mine zinc and respond flexibly to different market conditions thanks to the high grades of its projects.

Discovery Alert's report on "Junior Mining Stocks Undervaluation" emphasizes that investors have the opportunity in 2026 to invest in operational substance before the potential wave of large acquisitions drives up valuations. Should Glencore and Rio Tinto actually merge – or even go on a shopping spree individually – projects with the quality and location of Pasinex will automatically become sought-after takeover targets. Pasinex's stock is thus much more than a bet on the price of zinc. It is a strategic option on the realignment of global commodity supply, where agile, high-grade projects are the most valuable currency. Last year, Pasinex shares already generated attractive returns for shareholders with these key figures. However, the small producer still has to be considered relatively unknown. Such a prime asset in the zinc sector, which has also proven in the past that it can operate successfully even when zinc prices fluctuate, is likely to be even more in demand in the future than it is today.