Siemens Energy leads the pack, A.H.T. Syngas follows closely, while Nel ASA struggles—which stock will deliver the highest return in the hydrogen boom

Siemens Energy: Mass Production and Record Demand

Siemens Energy has taken the hydrogen concept from vision to operational implementation. The company has developed mature PEM electrolysis systems for industrial-scale use. Next year, a 280 MW electrolyzer in Emden is set to begin production, generating up to 26,000 metric tonnes of green hydrogen annually. The systems can also handle fluctuations in the electricity supply without any problems. This is a decisive advantage when it comes to integrating with wind and solar energy. With series production in Berlin, carried out in collaboration with Air Liquide, the group secures cost advantages and a clear market position relative to smaller competitors that remain heavily reliant on product announcements.

Operationally, Siemens Energy shone in the second quarter with a record order intake of EUR 17.7 billion and an order backlog of EUR 154 billion. This provides planning certainty for years to come. The driving force is now the Grid Technologies division, which, with a 41.5% increase, has outperformed the traditionally strong Gas Services division. The exorbitant power consumption of AI data centers in the US is fueling demand for transformers and grid components, while global supply shortages are supporting prices. Management raised its full-year forecast, which now projects revenue growth of 14–16% and an operating margin of up to 12%. Management is therefore confident that this trend will continue.

Capital allocation is the second key driver for investors. Free cash flow before taxes reached nearly EUR 5 billion in the first half of the year, enabling an accelerated share buyback tranche of EUR 1 billion. This is part of a comprehensive EUR 6 billion program. Speculation about a spin-off of the Transformation of Industry division is further fueling the outlook. Analysts such as Jefferies and Deutsche Bank are reaffirming their "Buy" recommendations with price targets of up to EUR 215. Although the wind subsidiary Gamesa remains an operational challenge with negative results, management is confident it will move out of the red by the end of the year. The share is currently trading at around EUR 162.56.

A.H.T. Syngas: From Plant Builder to Energy Provider

The hydrogen narrative in the markets often focuses on electrolyzers powered by green electricity. A Dutch specialist is pursuing a complementary approach that is attracting growing investor attention. The so-called "twin-fire" principle converts biogenic waste materials, such as wood waste or fermentation residues, into high-purity synthesis gas. A container-based solution for hydrogen separation has now been validated in a joint project. The technology could produce hydrogen at a cost ranging from EUR 4.40 to just under EUR 8 per kg, making it cheaper than pure electrolysis. A patent has now been granted for the process, thereby raising barriers to entry for competitors.

The business model is currently undergoing a strategic shift. Until now, the company has primarily generated revenue from the sale of biomass gasification systems. Going forward, the focus will shift to operations. The contracting model promises margins of up to 18%, significantly higher than those from sales alone. To finance this expansion, a convertible bond worth EUR 2 million was issued. The recent exclusive partnership with INNOTEC in Poland is a real game-changer in this regard. The Polish market offers enormous potential due to its high dependence on coal and abundant biomass reserves. The joint pipeline comprises 17 projects, and orders totaling EUR 10 million are expected to be booked before the end of this year.

The ownership structure sends a strong signal: approximately 40% of the shares are held by management and employees. This close alignment with shareholders builds trust, especially since family offices and institutional investors hold the remainder. Standardization on the R116 plant type also enables flexible production without bottlenecks. GBC analysts set a price target of EUR 8.50 for the company, underscoring the operational leverage of the business model. While the market for conventional natural gas is coming under pressure, the synthetic gas segment is growing rapidly as a climate-friendly alternative. With its strategic focus on recurring revenue, the company is well-positioned for its next phase of growth. The share is currently trading at around EUR 2.82.

Nel ASA: Technological Progress Meets a Leadership Vacuum

The recent market launch of the new generation of alkali electrolyzers should have been a milestone for Nel ASA. The system promises to make hydrogen production significantly more economically attractive, with turnkey costs below USD 1,450 per kilowatt. This is a genuine breakthrough in an industry that often struggles with project costs exceeding USD 3,000 per kilowatt. Industrialization at the Herøya site is underway, supported by an EU Innovation Fund grant of up to EUR 135 million. Yet despite this promising development, concrete large-scale orders for the new platform have yet to materialize. Order intake plummeted by 73% in the first quarter, and the order backlog shrank to NOK 1.1 billion. At the time, it was still assumed that customers were simply waiting for the new technology.

The next blow came in mid-June. CEO Håkon Volldal announced his resignation to join the packaging group Elopak. The timing could hardly be worse. Just as the company is launching its new product generation onto the market, a new CEO must be found for the coming year. Although Supervisory Board Chairman Arvid Moss emphasizes that the strategic direction remains unchanged, the market reacted with skepticism. The stock lost nearly 37% of its value within a few weeks. Volldal will remain in office for another six months while the Executive Board searches for a successor. If the company succeeds in bringing on board an experienced industry executive with strong networks, it could ultimately have a positive effect.

First-quarter operating metrics show little momentum. Revenue fell by 5% to NOK 148 million, and EBITDA remained deep in the red at minus NOK 100 million. At least a long-standing legal dispute with Iwatani was settled in early June. This eliminates the risk of further lawsuits in the US market. The NOK 1.4 billion liquidity position offers some breathing room, but it is no substitute for lost customer orders. Analysts expect revenue of NOK 791 million for 2026, with a net loss of NOK 427 million. The next key date is July 15, when the half-year report will provide insight into order intake and the status of the CEO search. Currently, one share costs NOK 2.415.

The vision is history; what counts in the future is operational execution. Siemens Energy impresses as a profitable market leader with record orders and capital returns. A.H.T. Syngas, with its patented biomass technology, offers a niche model with good margins and strong shareholder loyalty. Nel ASA, on the other hand, remains a risky turnaround candidate despite technological advances, weighed down by a leadership vacuum and shrinking orders. Today's market rewards substance, not mere hope. Bet on Siemens Energy for stability and on A.H.T. Syngas for growth, but keep in mind that Nel ASA is only for speculators with strong nerves.