Potential Moderna-Style Share Surge? Takeover Candidates Evotec, Valneva and Vidac Pharma in Focus — Analysts Bullish

Vidac Pharma: Stock Comeback on the Back of Its Phase 2b Study?

Vidac Pharma's share price could become a hot topic for comeback speculation. The oncology specialist is focusing its research on reversing the so-called Warburg effect. The aim is to intervene in the altered metabolism of tumour cells and, amongst other things, reactivate programmed cell death. The biotech company's shares have lost nearly 50% of their value this year. Yet progress in development is clearly evident.

Vidac Pharma has fully completed patient recruitment for the Phase 2B study of VDA-1102 in high-risk actinic keratosis (skin cancer). All 39 planned patients were enrolled within the scheduled timeframe. VDA-1102 is the company's lead drug candidate and targets the altered metabolism of cancer cells by modulating the hexokinase-2 (HK2) signalling pathway. According to Vidac, no serious treatment-related adverse events have been reported to date.

The treatment and follow-up of patients are continuing. According to the study protocol, the follow-up period is set to last approximately three months after the enrolment of the last patient. Database closure and data analysis are then scheduled. Vidac intends to publish the topline results thereafter. Positive results should attract the interest of one or two pharmaceutical companies and potentially boost the share price.

Strategically, too, progress is being made to accelerate clinical development and the establishment of partnerships in Europe. For instance, Vidac Pharma plans to establish a new French subsidiary in collaboration with Eutopos Pharma. This subsidiary has been selected for "Quest for Health", a leading European innovation platform for healthcare and life sciences companies. The program forms part of the cross-border BioValley ecosystem spanning France, Germany and Switzerland, offering access to biotech and pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, clinics, investors and other innovation partners.

Eutopos Pharma is set to serve as Vidac Pharma's European platform for research and development, clinical trials, business development, strategic partnerships and licensing. Vidac aims to use this to expand its presence in continental Europe and, in particular, to advance the development of its oncology and onco-dermatology programs. Vidac expects that establishing a presence in Strasbourg will, above all, provide better access to pharmaceutical partners, scientific institutions, investors and potential licensing partners. Quest for Health currently supports 60 healthtech start-ups, including 25 biotech companies, and has a network of partners in France, Germany, Switzerland and Belgium.

Investors should not be unsettled by the management's share sales in recent months. This was announced well in advance, and Vidac is benefiting directly. The net proceeds are being made directly available to the company for financing. This is intended to accelerate development in the current year.

Valneva: Is Partner Pfizer Taking Over?

First Berlin has confirmed its "Buy" recommendation for Valneva shares. Due to weaker profit forecasts for 2026 and higher net debt, the target price has been slightly reduced from EUR 4.50 to EUR 4.40.

From the analysts' perspective, the Lyme disease vaccine candidate LB6V remains the most important value driver. Although it narrowly missed the primary endpoint of the Phase 3 trial, analysts still put the probability of FDA approval at 67%. Pfizer has already submitted a marketing authorization application to the EMA and intends to submit the documentation to the FDA before the end of 2026. Decisions from both regulatory bodies are expected within the next twelve months.

Following a 21% decline in turnover to EUR 33.5 million in the second quarter of 2026, analysts expect business performance to improve in the second half of the year. According to the study, the decline is primarily attributable to one-off effects and the deliberate withdrawal from the distribution of third-party products. Furthermore, the switch to a new distribution partner in Germany and the staggered deliveries of the Japanese encephalitis vaccine Ixiaro to the US Department of Defense had a negative impact. The full-year forecast for product revenue of EUR 142.5 million implies growth of 17.3% compared with the same period last year. This is expected to be driven primarily by higher Ixiaro sales and an anticipated new contract from the US Department of Defense. Analysts also expect profitability to recover.

Evotec: No buyers in sight?

And what of Evotec, the perennial takeover target? The share price stood at EUR 3.25 yesterday, its lowest level since 2016. Today, it is hard to imagine that the share price briefly exceeded EUR 40 in 2021. Since then, there have been repeated, more or less concrete takeover rumours. Although the share price is so low, there is currently no sign of any such interest. Following the disappointing half-year results and doubts about the new management's strategy, it seems that not only shareholders but also potential buyers are giving the share a wide berth.

At least RBC has recently commented positively on the share. The half-year results were said to be in line with expectations. The analysts have rated the Evotec share as "Outperform" and put its fair value at EUR 10.

The takeover merry-go-round in the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors is picking up momentum again. An exciting candidate is Vidac Pharma. The share appears extremely undervalued. Should the next trial data prove positive once again, anything other than a surge in the share price would be a surprise. In the case of Valneva, it cannot be ruled out that a partner such as Pfizer might make a move. As for Evotec, things are so quiet at the moment that all the negative factors may already be priced in.