Opportunities and Risks at Nike, dynaCERT and Hapag-Lloyd

Hapag-Lloyd: What Happens to the Kühne Shares?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is hitting Hapag-Lloyd hard on multiple fronts. New routes and service disruptions are costing Germany's largest shipping group a significant amount of money. On top of that, energy costs have risen substantially. Accordingly, management referred in the half-year report to a "challenging market environment and operational disruptions" in the business. Rising costs, declining volumes, and negative currency effects led to a decline in consolidated revenue from EUR 9.7 billion to EUR 9.2 billion in the first half of the year. In terms of EBIT, the Hamburg-based company even reported a total collapse, from EUR 619 million in the same period last year to just EUR 16 million in the first six months of 2026. However, the company managed to keep free cash flow in positive territory at EUR 846 million. On balance sheet terms, the company is generally in good shape and holds a liquidity reserve of EUR 5.2 billion.

The Hanseatic company's forecast illustrates just how difficult the situation on the world's oceans currently is. Based on improved market demand and the positive trend in spot freight rates, the Executive Board expects a better situation than anticipated. However, the reliability of the forecast suffers. Consolidated EBIT is forecast to range from EUR 0.1 to 1.0 billion. This wide range is tantamount to no forecast at all. At least, a loss is not expected.

Now, in addition to geopolitical uncertainty, a new challenge could arise for the group. Major shareholder Klaus-Michael Kühne passed away this week. Through his Swiss holding company, the entrepreneur held a 30% stake in Hapag-Lloyd. According to media reports, the shares will remain in the foundation. The coming months will likely reveal whether this opens up new strategic opportunities.

Hapag-Lloyd's stock has now shown signs of life again following the sharp correction in March and a months-long sideways trend. Since the end of June, it has risen by about one-fifth. Given the current high level of uncertainty, this stock is currently suitable only for highly speculative investors.

dynaCERT: Is the Sales Push an Opportunity for the Stock?

The year had gotten off to a strong start for dynaCERT shareholders. The German-Canadian company's stock nearly doubled from its December low through mid-April. Even the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf seemed unable to dent the stock's performance.

However, those gains have since been almost entirely erased. Yet the company is fully focused on growth from an operational standpoint and is receiving a powerful tailwind from the fallout of the war in the Persian Gulf. This is because high diesel prices are causing enormous problems, especially for logistics companies and freight forwarders. Cost pressure is already high due to low-cost competition, and now the rising diesel price, which in some cases is already in the range of EUR 2.40 per litre, is adding to the strain.

dynaCERT's innovation offers a quick solution. Trucks can be retrofitted at short notice using its HydraGEN™ technology. The process is designed not only to save diesel but also to make the engine run cleaner and more efficiently. In this process, hydrogen and oxygen are produced directly on-board the vehicle during operation and fed into the diesel engine. The patented technology can be installed quickly and does not require a separate hydrogen tank. The unit is about the size of a suitcase.

The executive board, led by German CEO Kevin Unrath, is now ushering in the next phase of international expansion. dynaCERT plans to significantly ramp up its customer and market activities in Europe, Asia, and North and South America. The company will be represented, either alone or with partners, at trade shows, industry events, and conferences in the fields of heavy haulage/trucks, port operations, and stationary power generation. Specifically, the company mentions IAA TRANSPORTATION 2026 in Hanover, the 24-Hour Camions in Le Mans, TOC Americas in Cartagena, Breakbulk Asia in Singapore, and Powergen International 2027 in Salt Lake City.

dynaCERT intends to take a highly targeted approach. According to CEO Unrath, the company is focusing its resources on the markets, applications, and industry relationships where it sees the greatest commercial potential. Successful case studies could benefit the stock. Risk-conscious investors can use the current price level as an entry point.

Nike: Sinking Deeper and Deeper With No End in Sight?

Emotion, status, a winner's mentality: these are likely the terms many recreational athletes associate with Nike. The timeless slogan "Just do it" and partnerships with world-class athletes like Michael Jordan and Serena Williams have made the Swoosh a global symbol and Nike one of the most successful sports companies.

But Nike's explosive growth has long since plateaued. The World Cup final featured two Adidas teams, while the Nike-sponsored teams, England and France, had already been eliminated in the semifinals. Strategically, things have not been going well for a long time, either. Nike had pulled out of specialty retail and focused entirely on direct contact with customers, whether through its own stores or via an app. As a result, its visibility in retail declined sharply, and classic problems associated with online retail, returns and logistics, eroded margins significantly. Not least, in recent years, more dynamic brands like On Running and Hoka have gained market share, while Nike has lost it. Management is now changing course, but that takes time and money.

This underperformance is reflected in the share price. Just five years ago, investors had to pay a hefty USD 178 per Nike share. Today, the share trades on the NYSE for less than USD 40. Management's missteps during this period have cost the company three-quarters of its market capitalization. But when will the stock bottom out?

Nike shares are still not particularly cheap. The market consensus puts the forward P/E ratio at 24. Many analysts have revised their earnings per share expectations for the current fiscal year downward in recent months. So they have little hope for a quick turnaround. The current discount is therefore considered justified. Given the many challenges facing consumers, things are unlikely to get any easier for Nike in the short term. High energy prices and, in some cases, rising unemployment in its core markets in North America and Europe are unsettling shoppers. Investors should therefore also hit the brakes. Nike shares are still not "cheap" enough!

Given Nike's still lofty valuation and the consumer outlook in its key markets, caution remains warranted. The stock may not have reached its bottom yet. dynaCERT is now embarking on a major growth offensive. At the same time, the stock has pulled back significantly, creating opportunities for more risk-tolerant investors. Geopolitics is once again dominating Hapag-Lloyd's business. The stock has been trending upward in recent weeks, but it remains captive to global trade and war policies.