Oil Price Shock! New Tailwind for Hydrogen Stocks! Buy thyssenkrupp nucera, Nel ASA, or dynaCERT Now?

dynaCERT: Analysts' Investment Case Takes Shape

dynaCERT should be a winner in the current oil market trends. Cost pressures from high diesel prices are increasing, particularly for freight forwarders and logistics companies. Accordingly, interest in solutions that can be implemented quickly to reduce fuel consumption is likely to rise. Against this backdrop, dynaCERT's participation in IAA TRANSPORTATION 2026 could hardly come at a better time. The world's leading commercial vehicle and logistics trade show kicks off on Tuesday in Hanover. This is where dynaCERT's HydraGEN™ technology meets fleet operators for whom even a few percentage points of fuel savings can make a noticeable economic difference amid high diesel prices. Unlike replacing entire existing truck fleets, HydraGEN™ can be retrofitted to existing diesel vehicles.

HydraGEN™ is designed to reduce fuel consumption in existing diesel engines while simultaneously lowering their emissions. The potential market is particularly large in industries such as transportation, mining, construction, oil and gas, as well as in stationary generators.

Overall, buying dynaCERT shares is a compelling proposition. The investment case formulated by GBC Research at the end of 2025 is increasingly taking shape. At the time, analysts emphasised, above all, the growing demand for fuel- and emissions-reduction technologies, the international scalability of the business model, and additional opportunities through carbon credits and the stake in Cipher Neutron. This year's operational performance now clearly supports that assessment.

Pilot projects are increasingly turning into concrete commercial applications. In Vietnam, HydraGEN™ systems were tested in sectors including heavy-duty transportation, logistics, and port operations. Following successful tests, dynaCERT has already announced its first production order from a logistics company there.

Further activities are underway in Asia, Europe, and North America in addition to Vietnam. The company's proprietary HydraLytica™ telematics system is designed to capture fuel consumption and emissions data, giving customers transparency into the savings achieved in real-world operations.

Additional growth potential continues to come from two areas. First, the already recognised Verra methodology could, in the future, enable monetisation of CO₂ emission savings, thereby opening up additional recurring revenue streams. Second, the portfolio company Cipher Neutron is further developing its AEM electrolyser technology, thereby addressing the growing market for green hydrogen. dynaCERT still needs to prove that the pilot projects and initial production orders can translate into significantly higher revenue. But this is precisely where the opportunity lies: While the investment case at the end of 2025 was still heavily influenced by technological potential and market opportunities, the latest operational progress is increasingly providing concrete arguments for the analysts' price target, which stands at EUR 0.48. dynaCERT shares are currently trading at around EUR 0.064.

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thyssenkrupp nucera: Winner of European hydrogen subsidies?

mwb research views the updated framework for European hydrogen funding as a positive signal for the market. Up to EUR 500 million has been earmarked for the fourth Hydrogen Auction, scheduled for December 2026. Of this amount, EUR 350 million is to be allocated to renewable RFNBO hydrogen and EUR 150 million to electrolytically produced low-carbon hydrogen. What matters most is not the amount of funding, but the European Commission's more pragmatic approach: financing hurdles and bureaucracy will be reduced so more projects reach the final investment decision.

According to mwb, this is currently the industry's bottleneck. There is no shortage of projects, but many do not progress beyond the development and FEED phases. Uncertain offtake agreements, challenging economic viability, financing gaps, and the slow rollout of hydrogen infrastructure often prevent firm electrolyser orders. If the new funding conditions succeed in converting a larger portion of the existing project pipeline into concrete investments, thyssenkrupp nucera could also benefit significantly.

Analysts say nucera is well-positioned for a market recovery. They highlight the company's strong balance sheet, high net liquidity, and experience with large-scale electrolysis projects. While competitors are already suffering from the weak market, nucera could emerge stronger from the current slump. Although mwb expects a significant decline in revenue to EUR 499 million and an EBIT loss of EUR 99 million for 2026, it anticipates a return to growth and positive results starting in 2027. The analysts therefore reaffirm their "Buy" recommendation with a price target of EUR 15.

Nel ASA: Capacity Expansion in Europe

Nel ASA also appears to be preparing for the improved outlook in Europe. The Norwegian company is expanding its capacity for PEM electrolysers in Europe. To this end, Nel has entered into a framework agreement with Hydrasun. The partner is set to establish assembly and integration capacity for Nel's modular MC Series in Aberdeen, Scotland. The actual PEM stacks will continue to be produced at Nel's US plant in Wallingford, Connecticut.

Going forward, Hydrasun will handle the procurement, manufacturing, and integration of the so-called balance-of-plant systems surrounding the electrolyser stack. This is intended to create a fully integrated, containerised, and scalable electrolyser system.

For Nel, the partnership means greater production flexibility, a more robust supply chain, and shorter distances to key European markets. At the same time, the company is responding to the growing demand for standardised and modular electrolysis solutions.

For Hydrasun, the project also represents an expansion of its Aberdeen site toward cleantech production. The initiative is supported by the Scottish Government's Just Transition Fund. Hydrasun plans to modernise its existing facilities and sees potential for new jobs. Nel describes the partnership as an important step toward rolling out the MC Series more broadly and on a larger scale in Europe.

Problems in the oil market are likely to preoccupy the world for some time. On the stock market, companies in the renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors could benefit. The dynaCERT story is indeed taking increasingly concrete shape. Investors can hope for fresh momentum from the IAA. The hydrogen industry can use every glimmer of hope it can get. Right now, investing in companies like Nel ASA and thyssenkrupp nucera appears purely speculative. From a fundamental perspective, there is still no compelling case to buy.